The 5 types of Interoil Bidders.My opinion

[davidhmtk]

Either belive the CFO on the CC or you don't. They stated the PA was approved and that they had 2 SM bids. Collin V can't afford to lie about those bids. The market has been burnt in the past with IOC projections of a deal. This time they did it different.

The amended PA was "approved" (by the NEC) in Nov, but has not been signed.  Important details were left open in Nov, specifically the mechanism for the gov't to exercise their option to acquire addl gas.  Neither Colin nor any other IOC employee has said the November amended Pa was drafted and signed.

[bertl05]

Thats the key difference, approved vs. signed. The 2009 PS was approved by Duma aswell, there were photo ops etc...but it was never formally approved and signed off on....hence the fall 2011 Duma slam. Until the amended PA is signed , sealed and delivered. IOC is still in limbo...or so many in the market still believe.

Getting it signed will be big. However its a mistake to think that since ONeil PNG is now a smoothly oiled machine. Its not. Its very fractious, divisive political environment with each player scrambling for his piece of the pie....90 days of a new PM hasnt changed decades of habits and machinations.

Thats why i'm in the "there is still a lot up in the air " camp.

[Getitrt2]

bert, there is no denying there is still plenty to be resolved, especially the finalization of the partner selection and sell down deal. However, your description above exaggerates and distorts the situation in several ways, something that seems to be a habit of yours, and in a negative manner toward IOC. I certainly would not call the PNG government a "smoothly oiled machine", a term I also would not use for our own government, except for the military. You are dead wrong about it otherwise, however, because the O'Neill government represents a revolutionary change and improvement not only from "decades" ago, but from all previous governments. It is a stable, strong majority with an extended term that is less "fractious and divisive" than our own US government, and one that is working hard to fight corruption, establish strong and supportive relations with other countries, increase investment in PNG, and improve the economic and social circumstances of its people.

The 2011 political opposition to and related problems for IOC were because of corrupt incentivized opposition and because IOC was supposedly not complying with the agreement, not because it was not approved by the NEC, which it was, or not signed. The part of the current modified PA that has been approved by the NEC is the most important parts that allow IOC and its investment banks and bidders to proceed with finalization of the bidding, partner selection, and sell down process, which has been confirmed by the Prime Minister and the Company; and, although formal signed documentation from the NEC is not complete pending completion and documentation of the rest of the PA, that approval is in writing with full support having been confirmed and expressed by the Prime Minister of it and how IOC is proceeding. Your saying IOC is "still in limbo", i.e. as it was, is a gross exaggeration and distortion. I agree getting the final formal signed legal document is likely to be "big", but what has already occurred is bigger than either you or the market has recognized.

[j.coolaid]

agree with Getitrt2 on this myself.....just hoping to hear the final resolutions "promptly"....then in turn,,, so I can say histwa to the burbot boy Bonkie and his fellow hacksters bs..

[bertl05]

bert, there is no denying there is still plenty to be resolved, especially the finalization of the partner selection and sell down deal. However, your description above exaggerates and distorts the situation in several ways, something that seems to be a habit of yours, and in a negative manner toward IOC. I certainly would not call the PNG government a "smoothly oiled machine", a term I also would not use for our own government, except for the military. You are dead wrong about it otherwise, however, because the O'Neill government represents a revolutionary change and improvement not only from "decades" ago, but from all previous governments. It is a stable, strong majority with an extended term that is less "fractious and divisive" than our own US government, and one that is working hard to fight corruption, establish strong and supportive relations with other countries, increase investment in PNG, and improve the economic and social circumstances of its people. The 2011 political opposition to and related problems for IOC were because of corrupt incentivized opposition and because IOC was supposedly not complying with the agreement, not because it was not approved by the NEC, which it was, or not signed. The part of the current modified PA that has been approved by the NEC is the most important parts that allow IOC and its investment banks and bidders to proceed with finalization of the bidding, partner selection, and sell down process, which has been confirmed by the Prime Minister and the Company; and, although formal signed documentation from the NEC is not complete pending completion and documentation of the rest of the PA, that approval is in writing with full support having been confirmed and expressed by the Prime Minister of it and how IOC is proceeding. Your saying IOC is "still in limbo", i.e. as it was, is a gross exaggeration and distortion. I agree getting the final formal signed legal document is likely to be "big", but what has already occurred is bigger than either you or the market has recognized.

Appreciate your comments getit. Dont get me wrong,,,,, I believe the political scene is quite different now, but my sources dont feel this is done yet.  I still think it gets done, but not tommorrow and not at a massively bullish term. Im most likely long more shares than most, but i only reflect what i hear.

I think if you think that the aboubt face of the duma smiling handshaking photo op phase os the 2009 ewc deal is not relevant, than you are not in touch. Until there is a signed amended PA, there isnt anything tangible.

The tide has changed....but its not that different. IOC needs a concrete signed PA. Without that not much has occured.

[TxPm]

Bert, I agree with you 100% the difference I believe btw now & 2009 is that this time around I believe a signed PA happens at the same time as the SD or right after/before

[ebster123]

Thats the key difference, approved vs. signed. The 2009 PS was approved by Duma aswell, there were photo ops etc...but it was never formally approved and signed off on....hence the fall 2011 Duma slam. Until the amended PA is signed , sealed and delivered. IOC is still in limbo...or so many in the market still believe.

Getting it signed will be big. However its a mistake to think that since ONeil PNG is now a smoothly oiled machine. Its not. Its very fractious, divisive political environment with each player scrambling for his piece of the pie....90 days of a new PM hasnt changed decades of habits and machinations.

Thats why i'm in the "there is still a lot up in the air " camp.

Bert, if we are 90 days in and O'Neil has 180 before people can vote on "no confidence" it would make sence that things SHOULD be clear before the 180day mark. If my calculations are correct that should put us around April right???

[Tree]

bert, there is no denying there is still plenty to be resolved, especially the finalization of the partner selection and sell down deal. However, your description above exaggerates and distorts the situation in several ways, something that seems to be a habit of yours, and in a negative manner toward IOC. I certainly would not call the PNG government a "smoothly oiled machine", a term I also would not use for our own government, except for the military. You are dead wrong about it otherwise, however, because the O'Neill government represents a revolutionary change and improvement not only from "decades" ago, but from all previous governments. It is a stable, strong majority with an extended term that is less "fractious and divisive" than our own US government, and one that is working hard to fight corruption, establish strong and supportive relations with other countries, increase investment in PNG, and improve the economic and social circumstances of its people. The 2011 political opposition to and related problems for IOC were because of corrupt incentivized opposition and because IOC was supposedly not complying with the agreement, not because it was not approved by the NEC, which it was, or not signed. The part of the current modified PA that has been approved by the NEC is the most important parts that allow IOC and its investment banks and bidders to proceed with finalization of the bidding, partner selection, and sell down process, which has been confirmed by the Prime Minister and the Company; and, although formal signed documentation from the NEC is not complete pending completion and documentation of the rest of the PA, that approval is in writing with full support having been confirmed and expressed by the Prime Minister of it and how IOC is proceeding. Your saying IOC is "still in limbo", i.e. as it was, is a gross exaggeration and distortion. I agree getting the final formal signed legal document is likely to be "big", but what has already occurred is bigger than either you or the market has recognized.

Appreciate your comments getit. Dont get me wrong,,,,, I believe the political scene is quite different now, but my sources dont feel this is done yet.  I still think it gets done, but not tommorrow and not at a massively bullish term. Im most likely long more shares than most, but i only reflect what i hear.

I think if you think that the aboubt face of the duma smiling handshaking photo op phase os the 2009 ewc deal is not relevant, than you are not in touch. Until there is a signed amended PA, there isnt anything tangible.

The tide has changed....but its not that different. IOC needs a concrete signed PA. Without that not much has occured.

Guys, We have Project Approval.  You need to be tested if you think 'not much has occured'.  We have the MPA which secures final bidders with knowledge that this Gulf LNG Project will happen.  We have NEC approval for the MPA, 2009 we had Somare's word.    O'Neill takes ill, we still have the MPA.  Big difference.  That MPA  allows IOC to take partners today.  Agree with one of you which stated the process has an end date and logically can be Q1.  This is a gigantic undertaking with 6 bidders, let alone 1 or 2.

[Getitrt2]

Thats the key difference, approved vs. signed. The 2009 PS was approved by Duma aswell, there were photo ops etc...but it was never formally approved and signed off on....hence the fall 2011 Duma slam. Until the amended PA is signed , sealed and delivered. IOC is still in limbo...or so many in the market still believe. Getting it signed will be big. However its a mistake to think that since ONeil PNG is now a smoothly oiled machine. Its not. Its very fractious, divisive political environment with each player scrambling for his piece of the pie....90 days of a new PM hasnt changed decades of habits and machinations. Thats why i'm in the "there is still a lot up in the air " camp.

Bert, if we are 90 days in and O'Neil has 180 before people can vote on "no confidence" it would make sence that things SHOULD be clear before the 180day mark. If my calculations are correct that should put us around April right???

ebster, Parliament extended the period before any no confidence vote can be taken.  It's now three years if I remember correctly.

[Palm]

Thats the key difference, approved vs. signed. The 2009 PS was approved by Duma aswell, there were photo ops etc...but it was never formally approved and signed off on....hence the fall 2011 Duma slam. Until the amended PA is signed , sealed and delivered. IOC is still in limbo...or so many in the market still believe. Getting it signed will be big. However its a mistake to think that since ONeil PNG is now a smoothly oiled machine. Its not. Its very fractious, divisive political environment with each player scrambling for his piece of the pie....90 days of a new PM hasnt changed decades of habits and machinations. Thats why i'm in the "there is still a lot up in the air " camp.

Bert, if we are 90 days in and O'Neil has 180 before people can vote on "no confidence" it would make sence that things SHOULD be clear before the 180day mark. If my calculations are correct that should put us around April right???

Ebster, not sure where you get the 90 and 180 days. The no-confidence period was extended from 18 months to 30 months. That's 2 1/2 years that Oneill is safe.