PNG LNG 70% Completed

[Tree]

• At the end of 2012, the PNG LNG Project was approximately 70% complete and on track for first LNG sales in 2014. The estimated Project cost has increased to $19 billion while the Plant capacity has risen to 6.9 mmtpa.
• The PRL 3 JV has commenced development studies to assess potential design concepts for the P’nyang gas field, which may include a third PNG LNG train.

Hmmm OSH is only showing 505 MMBOE for the PNG-LNG project. (Reserves) They also mention that the PNG-LNG project is a 30 year 9T production goal. (2 Trains) 505 MMBOE only equals 3T. OSH has one gas field and 20% project gas comes from their oil fields... probably re-injected gas. Where is the rest coming from? Off Shore ... looks like Total's back yard. So... is IOC the back stop if OSH drills and misses? Hmmmm Well, I guess Rex can &%?! in 1 hand and in the other hope OSH can find 9 more Ts. We know which fils up first.  1 Tcf produce 21.25 MT Ping Ding needs 12.7 Tcf for 270 MT LNG ......and then there are expansion aspirations. I'd say they maybe can't depend on OSH. It has always made most sense for XOM to pay Phil's price. Ok, so XOM sold contacts for 6.5 MTPA. So the PNG LNG Project as stands a production reserve for 10 years 8 months. I think they are a bit short on expansion and the 30 year plan.

PNG LNG greatly de-risks PNG as an LNG host.  They need feed-stock.

Construction 70% complete with 1/3 of project gas in place at a cost of $7/Mcf.

Maybe by early March they will secure more gas in the $3/Mcf range.

Hmmm OSH is only showing 505 MMBOE for the PNG-LNG project. (Reserves) They also mention that the PNG-LNG project is a 30 year 9T production goal. (2 Trains) 505 MMBOE only equals 3T. OSH has one gas field and 20% project gas comes from their oil fields... probably re-injected gas. Where is the rest coming from? Off Shore ... looks like Total's back yard. So... is IOC the back stop if OSH drills and misses? Hmmmm Well, I guess Rex can &%?! in 1 hand and in the other hope OSH can find 9 more Ts. We know which fils up first.  1 Tcf produce 21.25 MT Ping Ding needs 12.7 Tcf for 270 MT LNG ......and then there are expansion aspirations. I'd say they maybe can't depend on OSH. It has always made most sense for XOM to pay Phil's price. Ok, so XOM sold contacts for 6.5 MTPA. So the PNG LNG Project as stands a production reserve for 10 years 8 months. I think they are a bit short on expansion and the 30 year plan.

Hmmm

OSH is only showing 505 MMBOE for the PNG-LNG project.
(Reserves)

They also mention that the PNG-LNG project is a 30 year 9T production goal. (2 Trains)

505 MMBOE only equals 3T.

OSH has one gas field and 20% project gas comes from their oil fields... probably re-injected gas.

Where is the rest coming from?

Off Shore ... looks like Total's back yard.

So... is IOC the back stop if OSH drills and misses?

Hmmmm

Well, I guess Rex can &%?! in 1 hand and in the other hope OSH can find 9 more Ts. We know which fils up first. 
1 Tcf produce 21.25 MT
Ping Ding needs 12.7 Tcf for 270 MT LNG
......and then there are expansion aspirations.
I'd say they maybe can't depend on OSH. It has always made most sense for XOM to pay Phil's price.

Ok, so XOM sold contacts for 6.5 MTPA. So the PNG LNG Project as stands a production reserve for 10 years 8 months.

I think they are a bit short on expansion and the 30 year plan.

[ArtM72]

At the first level this sounds great for IOC. E/A has the gas.

At the second level this doesn't seem to make sense. A two train LNG plant with only 3T identified after several years seems an "oops" of the kind not normally made in the industry I suspect. That is an almost "how can this be?". That just doesn't add up. But the SHU thread started by Petrovale 5/9/2012 suggests there has been a question about how much gas was really available from the Highlands. http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/showth...hp?tid=810 The Patrick Talu article quoted sure reads like volumes were based on "leaders" sitting around the campfire claiming "mine is bigger than yours" with Duma's bluster at the center of it all.

My bet: Exxon's engineers put that tee in the pipeline just in case they couldn't find enough gas in the Highlands. This gives us yet another new angle on why IOC's project may have been delayed: Exxon didn't want to see an LNG plant in the Gulf when its Port Moresby plant didn't have sufficient feedstock to keep it running.

[Optionray]

At the first level this sounds great for IOC. E/A has the gas. At the second level this doesn't seem to make sense. A two train LNG plant with only 3T identified after several years seems an "oops" of the kind not normally made in the industry I suspect. That is an almost "how can this be?". That just doesn't add up. But the SHU thread started by Petrovale 5/9/2012 suggests there has been a question about how much gas was really available from the Highlands. http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/showth...hp?tid=810 The Patrick Talu article quoted sure reads like volumes were based on "leaders" sitting around the campfire claiming "mine is bigger than yours" with Duma's bluster at the center of it all. My bet: Exxon's engineers put that tee in the pipeline just in case they couldn't find enough gas in the Highlands. This gives us yet another new angle on why IOC's project may have been delayed: Exxon didn't want to see an LNG plant in the Gulf when its Port Moresby plant didn't have sufficient feedstock to keep it running.

Probably another reason why the govt. wanted an additional 27.5% because they knew they wouldn't have a problem saleing it to XOM