Pricing Rumors....

[johnwgrant]

I saw a bid pricing rumor on Yazoo of $1.50 from Shell.

So, just for grins, where does the InterOil stock price settle at (say 1 week after the press release) if in fact IOC gets $1.50/mcf for their sell-down ?!?!

(I could try to be fancy and do a survey, but, I am not that smart !)

I suppose Part B of my question would be:  does it matter how much is the cash component of the bid (ie, a check written to InterOil that goes directly into their bank acount), or, is it all about the implied $/mcf of the bid ?

[Petro2458]

It's all about the net present value of the deal: but if $1.50 were the number relative to the mid case resource estimate of 10 TCF...this is $15B. If relative to low case of 6 or 7 T's...then $9 B. I'd guess $150/share. And the triceratops opportunity gets immediately priced in...for another $50/share over a few days/weeks

[Palm]

Yep and yep; rumors are out there on PRL 15 it seems.

[CesiumFormate]

I don't believe it. I think $1.50 is too low unless the liquids are priced separately.
CF

[jft310]

Don't know any specifics but in the beginning IOC got to keep all the liquids. Wheres is the bid now?? The further talk was 30,000 barrels a day of condensates production. Time will tell.

[Petro2458]

CF..too low? Why do you think $1.50 for the mid case EUR is too low?

[ArtM72]

Petro -

You didn't ask me, but in my mind the spread between market price and the cost of development and liquification is too large for only $1.50. If however IOC retained a significant share of E/A $1.50 wouldn't be all that disappointing. FWIW IMHUO K or T etc.

[jft310]

IOC has repeatedly told shareholders on CC's that all bidders are using GLJ numbers. Not sure check with Meg or WA. One story on PNG in mid March was Shell had bid $1.40 per mcf for 25% of E/A for $3.5 Billion. Latest RUMORS from Duma are that bids have now changed to Shell now wants all of E/A . No price talk or dates . Per GB we are close . Final stages. If the Yahoo rumor is correct and the Shell bid is $1.50 using round numbers that's $15 Billion for all of E/A and $8 Billion ish for Interoil's portion. I am delighted with $8 Billion cash for E/A twice the current market cap and plenty of cash to drill baby drill and build baby build. Add in a Total /Oil Search partnership and we add even more value and IOC survives as a seperate company. Sure IOC gets sold out 100% just not yet I hope. Use it or trash it.

[petrengr1]

Don't know any specifics but in the beginning IOC got to keep all the liquids. Wheres is the bid now?? The further talk was 30,000 barrels a day of condensates production. Time will tell.

JFT- We had this discussion four years ago. I refer you to my yahoo post dated May 22, 2009 10:03 AM http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/;_ylt=AgK9X5p4hVPHl.srlxJM.17eAohG;_ylu=X3oDMTB2NnNuZWNlBHBvcwM0OARzZWMDTWVkaWFNc2dCb2FyZHNYSFJVbHQ-;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3?&bn=72dee70a-8d52-344d-94e2-bd463b806ffe&tid=1242868652000-1ccc35e2-9141-3e2e-a629-d30c24da57ce

All working interest owners will share the hydrocarbons (gas and liquids) in accordance with their working interest percentages, after the State has taken their 22.5%.

If IOC ends up with 30% working interest they will be entitled to 30% of the liquids. If they want all of the liquids they will have to pay the other working interest owners and the State for their liquids at Market rates.

As far as getting 30,000 Barrels of condensate per day is concerned, they would have to produce 2,000 MMCFD and recover 15 Bbl/MMCF. That is enough gas to run a 14 mtpa LNG plant. I think it is safe to say it will be a while before we see 30,000 BCPD.

Let’s try to keep it real here.

[jft310]

Don't know any specifics but in the beginning IOC got to keep all the liquids. Wheres is the bid now?? The further talk was 30,000 barrels a day of condensates production. Time will tell.

JFT- We had this discussion four years ago. I refer you to my yahoo post dated May 22, 2009 10:03 AM http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/;_ylt=AgK9X5p4hVPHl.srlxJM.17eAohG;_ylu=X3oDMTB2NnNuZWNlBHBvcwM0OARzZWMDTWVkaWFNc2dCb2FyZHNYSFJVbHQ-;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3?&bn=72dee70a-8d52-344d-94e2-bd463b806ffe&tid=1242868652000-1ccc35e2-9141-3e2e-a629-d30c24da57ce

All working interest owners will share the hydrocarbons (gas and liquids) in accordance with their working interest percentages, after the State has taken their 22.5%.

If IOC ends up with 30% working interest they will be entitled to 30% of the liquids. If they want all of the liquids they will have to pay the other working interest owners and the State for their liquids at Market rates.

As far as getting 30,000 Barrels of condensate per day is concerned, they would have to produce 2,000 MMCFD and recover 15 Bbl/MMCF. That is enough gas to run a 14 mtpa LNG plant. I think it is safe to say it will be a while before we see 30,000 BCPD.

Let’s try to keep it real here.

PET with all due respect. You have 50% of the IOC information and things can and do change with IOC. Best example is all the nonsense about expiring licenses and IOC

losing licenses. . Your posting your opinion is fine but its what it is an opinion based on limited data. IOC deliberently hasn't revealed all the data for many reasons.Or why

would the have Confidentiality Agreements??,. Because theres more information they didn't want to make public. Proof read the PRE slides and what do they say about the

IOC structures. They hope for 5-10 T's of additional assets in each structure but you didn't post that info. Why because its been hidden. Today the infomation is starting to

come out from behind the Confidentiality Agreements.

So let's wait and see what else IOC can reveal in the next few weeks. IOC per Henry Aldorf who has data you don't have states IOC has 18T's at E/A. He also believes IOC will

produce 30,000 barrels a day of condensates . And he has data you don't have. Example PRE ! Example the leases ! Yes please keep it real and best to qualify your posts

until we get that hidden data.