WHAT is going on here??

[ebster123]

Anyone have an idea if this is impending bad news or what? Did something happen at T2? This can't be all shorting at thispoint is it?? I am totally confused with this stock. Thanks

[Tree]

Me thinks still Soros hang-over.
Since 1st of yr., we've had as a positive:
1) A story leaking JKM bid consortium.
2) T-2 spud.

As negatives we've had:
1) GC leak at 6.6 Ts (even though they state with 2 more wells in E/A, probability is the 8-9T range).
2) Soros selling 2/3 of 2.5 million shares.
3) Duma still digging in his heals.
4) Ongoing state of 'illegitamacy' of O'Neill gov't.
5) SC decision start pushed back until 4/2/12
6) Attempted 'coup'
7) Elections in doubt

Me thinks the positives out weigh the negatives as of right now.
Mkt./traders think otherwise.
My hunch is all gets settled as T-2 is quantified in late Spring/Summer.

[Tree]

Other positives:
3) Majors moving into PNG. TLM/HOR & TLM/Mitsubishi
4) KOGAS developing a FLNG

Negatives:
8) FLEX in flux???

[jft310]

If you shorted $51 would you lie , hire hacks like likely etc

[ebster123]

No questions the shorts want to cover and will be unethical to attempt to save what they can. However, this is some of the worst investor support a company can show. IOC seems to not care about the continued loss of shareholder value when they do not even attempt to respond to such attacks. Even in a quiet period, a leak can do wonders, IMO.

[Palm]

Asking management to "leak" something has little benefit. What could they "leak" right now that would stem the tide? They have gotten rapped for doing that in the past. IOC will be doubted until things are finalized, signed, approved, etc. and some money changes hands that is significant. Big boys are swooping into PNG and IOC has to show they can fly with them. PNG government will keep the pressure on for them to deliver because the time is now for PNG to hit that window of opportunity.

I still believe LT IOC gets it done, but the vice is tightening on them to perform.

[ebster123]

I disagree about the leak. Information about things such as numbers in a SD and how many bidders could suggest a bidding war and spark even short term players to jump on board for the run up.

[TomCrooz]

Ebster...Phil has already suggested there is a bidding war( contacted by every major in the world/tremendous interest). Problem is that nobody is bidding what Phil thinks it is worth(that is what I have heard anyway). Phil needs to take a reasonable/fair (BASED ON RECENT TRANSACTIONS)offer for a piece of the asset(say $2/mcf) and then find some more.

[ebster123]

TC, I do not disagree. But like you say, if the market is not willing to pay what he wants he can not make up his own economics. Prices are based on supply and demand and are based on what the market will bear. If bidders are not paying what he wants one could make an argument that either 1) Phil has an unrealistic price valuation based on current assets and what the market perceives or 2) the number of bidders asked is a small sample representation of the market and does not allow for a proper analysis. However with many majors and many national players it is unlikely that if Phil was asking a proper price they would not all be bidding in a frenzy against each other. If he believes asking for way above market value is in investor's interests that can only be true IF he is very very confident he can get what he asks for. To do so in a manner that could leave investors empty handed if it does not go through and PNG pushes them out is like playing poker with our money. My guess, Phil wants T2 results to up the bidding and not the SMs. In fact, the SMs would likely want to have settled the bidding before t2 even spud. All nice except if the delays in waiting for T2 results make IOC fall so far behind that the projects or licenses get pulled out from under them or changed by Duma so that it becomes less profitable or tasteful for IOC and investors then Phil and the board have not held up to their fiduciary responsibility. Don't get me wrong, if he continues to play poker and because if it we make 2 times what we would have I will happily take the cash, but that is not a bet that should be made by a corporation with investors cash. He should SD assets there and wait to sell more later. JMO buti believe it.

[Tusker]

Good to see you here. What I know is from the industry it's self.

" ... the biggest and the best"

We will not say it twice.

Tusker