I hate to say it, but..

[admin]

We should get some mileage out of the fact that we're not in the Middle East now that the Arab Spring has turned into an Arab nightmare.

It's a confusing place according to this humorous letter to the FT (although not entirely correct, I think):

[admin]

Just ran into another effort to convey the confusing spaghetti of aliances

As you can see, it is a convoluted mess. The red lines show who hates whom, the blue lines show who supports whom, and the green lines show who has no clue about a group.

[Palm]

More of the same in the ME and if there is much done it will be surprising. We've had Libya (more than once), Egypt (still ongoing), Iran, N Korea. We've had drone wars in Pakistan and now increasing in Yemen. The "benefit" to IOC has been zippo; in fact we are down. The evidence is stacked against anything for IOC coming out of another conflict, especially with Russia and China heavily backing Syria. The backbone of the West has shown to be pretty wobbly in these instances; a show of force is about as far as it goes. And these flashpoint nations know we have not got the financial resources to do much. The US is again having a standoff on its debt ceiling. No ability to do much more than flex some muscle.

[Tree]

JP is no stranger to the ME mess. JP needs their energy exports. To not deal with the ME would be in an ideal world.
JP efforts to de-link LNG from Oil will not be aided by an even higher risk situation in ME.

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THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
Shinzo Abe became the first Japanese prime minister to visit Djibouti on Aug. 27, where he told 130 members of the Self-Defense Forces that their anti-piracy mission in the Middle East is highly appreciated.

Abe is currently in the middle of a four-nation swing where he will visit Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait and Qatar, and focus on issues revolving around national security and energy.

"The expectations and evaluation of your activities are extremely positive among the Japanese public," Abe told the SDF, which established the first overseas SDF base in Djibouti in 2011. "Your activities are also being highly praised by the international community."

Abe pushed for a visit to Djibouti because he wanted to use it to illustrate to both domestic and foreign audiences the contributions being made by Japan to the international community.

Since 2009, two Maritime SDF destroyers and two P-3C patrol aircraft have been deployed to Djibouti to provide protection against pirates off the coast of Somalia. After the base was constructed in Djibouti, Ground SDF members were stationed there to provide security.

Abe also wants to further develop Djibouti into a base to protect Japanese nationals living and working in the region. The need for such a base was highlighted by the hostage-taking incident of Japanese workers in Algeria in January.

Diet discussions on legislation to revise the SDF Law to allow for the overland transport of Japanese nationals abroad have been carried over to the next session. If that bill is passed, Djibouti would become a base for the rescue of Japanese nationals in the region, according to a former defense minister.

Abe has also reached agreement with his counterparts in Bahrain and Kuwait to hold national security discussions by officials in charge of foreign affairs and defense. A similar agreement with Qatar is expected to be reached Aug. 28.

Securing stable energy sources has also been a priority for Abe during his Middle East trip.

"It will be important to develop relations with Persian Gulf nations to prepare for possible fluctuations in petroleum prices," a source accompanying the prime minister said.

Abe previously visited the Middle East during the Golden Week national holiday period in late April and early May. With his current second visit, Abe will have visited five of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Japan depends on GCC nations for about 70 percent of its petroleum imports. It also has a high dependence on those nations for liquefied natural gas.

Electric power companies have been forced to rely on thermal power plants since the 2011 accident at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, with 48 of the nation's 50 nuclear reactors currently offline. A weaker yen means higher fuel prices for imported petroleum and LNG, and that could become a liability for the Abenomics package of economic measures, according to a member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

To strengthen a stable supply of energy from the Middle East, the Abe administration plans to aggressively cooperate in the construction of social infrastructure in the region.

"In order to deepen relations, we will bring whatever the other party wants," a close aide to Abe said.

Cooperation will extend over a wide range, from subway systems to medical technology to solar power generation.

Abe also became the first Japanese prime minister to visit Bahrain. In an Aug. 25 meeting with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Abe was told, "We will engage in further petroleum development. There is room for Japan to enter, including in the securing of drilling rights."

Abe's visit to the Middle East also comes at a time when tensions are mounting in Syria.

In an Aug. 26 meeting with Kuwait Prime Minister Jaber Mubarak Al-Hamad Al-Sabah, Abe emphasized Japan's intention to stand together with the international community.

"I am extremely concerned about the situation there," the Japanese prime minister said. "I hope the United Nations will conduct a thorough study of the matter."

JAPAN WELCOMED AS MAJOR CUSTOMER

Changes in the global energy equation have forced Middle Eastern nations to place greater emphasis on Asia, and that has led to hearty receptions for Abe wherever he has landed in the region.

On Aug. 24, Prime Minister Khalifa bin Salman Al-Khalifa of Bahrain met Abe at the airport and also presented him with Bahrain's highest government decoration.

Energy exports from the Middle East have been hurt by the increased production of shale gas and oil in the United States.

Although that has led to a major shift in petroleum exports to Asia, tensions have also heightened in the region due to threats by Iran to close off the Strait of Hormuz, which is the major artery for petroleum shipments to Asia. Tehran has often used such threats when it faces pressure over its nuclear weapons development program.

Bahrain not only hosts the command for the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, it is also chair of the GCC. With Japan being not only an ally of the United States, but also a major importer of Middle East petroleum, strengthening partnerships in foreign affairs and national security also play to the interests of Middle Eastern nations.

In that vein, Bahrain had asked for annual strategic ministerial dialogues with Japan. The interests of the two sides also match in the area of economic development.

Greater revenues due to rising natural resource prices have led to a boom in major social infrastructure projects.

To prepare for the hosting of the soccer World Cup in 2022, Qatar is planning the construction of subway systems, railways and harbors totaling about $185 billion (18.2 trillion yen).

There are also indications that Kuwait plans to spend about $125 billion for the construction of subway and sewage systems.

But Middle Eastern nations are not looking only toward Japan.

South Korean Prime Minister Chung Hong-won followed in the footsteps of Abe and visited Bahrain on Aug. 25. Chung visited Qatar on Aug. 26, ahead of Abe. Chung called for greater cooperation in infrastructure construction as well as in the areas of public health and medicine.

For the many nations with absolute monarchies in the Middle East, Japan is an easier nation to deal with than Western nations, which may call more loudly for greater democracy and human rights. Middle East nations can also use mutual visits by their leaders with Japan as a means of legitimizing their regimes.

Since the pro-democracy protests that began in Bahrain in February 2011 that led to many fatalities, the government has banned protests in the capital of Manama under the pretext of fighting terrorism.

Khalil Al-Marzooq, a spokesman for Al-Wefaq, the largest opposition bloc in Bahrain, said Japan should not use a strengthening of relations with Bahrain as an excuse for ignoring human rights violations by the Bahrain government.

[Palm]

Exactly. The ME has always been and always will be unsettled. There are ST disturances but in the long run countries plan on how much risk they can have there. They do this with every country they do business with, just like corporations do. It's called risk management and is why companies take parts of projects; spreading the risk.

[admin]

Well, while there is a good deal of "business as usual" and the region is hardly a stranger to upheavals, the Arab Spring dynamics, combined with the branching out of Al Queda as a "movement" puts something of a new dynamic in the region and as a result, it isn't so easy to sort out the good guys from the bad guys (or at least the guys we should support) anymore, if that ever was the case in the first place.