Raymond James E & P Catalyst Outlook

[Getitrt2]

As of today RJ has published an updated "E & P Catalyst Outlook" that includes two anticipated events or announcements for IOC:

1.  Resource selldown to Exxon:  InterOil is in negotiations with Exxon regarding the sale of a stake in PRL 15 (which includes the Elk/Antelope resource base);  Exxon will utilize the gas to supply an additional train for its under-construction LNG project;  InterOil retains the right to build a competing LNG project with the remaining resource;  the selldown's fiscal terms have yet to be announced.  Exclusivity expired, opening the door for other players to negotiate.  ANTICIPATED DATE:  3Q13.  MAGNITUDE/IMPACT:  HIGH.

2.  Longer-term resource development strategy:  Once the resource selldown being negotiated is finalized, InterOil will be able to disclose the strategy for developing its remaining resource base, which may include a separate LNG project and/or condensate stripping plant.  ANTICIPATED DATE:  TBA.  MAGNITUDE/IMPACT:  HIGH.

[Tree]

As of today RJ has published an updated "E & P Catalyst Outlook" that includes two anticipated events or announcements for IOC:

1.  Resource selldown to Exxon:  InterOil is in negotiations with Exxon regarding the sale of a stake in PRL 15 (which includes the Elk/Antelope resource base);  Exxon will utilize the gas to supply an additional train for its under-construction LNG project;  InterOil retains the right to build a competing LNG project with the remaining resource;  the selldown's fiscal terms have yet to be announced.  Exclusivity expired, opening the door for other players to negotiate.  ANTICIPATED DATE:  3Q13.  MAGNITUDE/IMPACT:  HIGH.

2.  Longer-term resource development strategy:  Once the resource selldown being negotiated is finalized, InterOil will be able to disclose the strategy for developing its remaining resource base, which may include a separate LNG project and/or condensate stripping plant.  ANTICIPATED DATE:  TBA.  MAGNITUDE/IMPACT:  HIGH.

Thanks Getit,

Since the original 'exclusivity' announcement, it has been obvious that deal#1 was feedstock and deal#2 was 'optionality' to decide what to do with the other 4.6T+.  It's been feedstock and further production from day 1.  Does anyone really think XOM won't close on a little crappy deal of 4.6T's?

The game has been fixed and it goes like this:

1)  XOM negotiates for whatever stake they want - first dibs.

2)  RDS/TOT and the rest bid for the remainder, if XOM doesn't take it all.

This gets sorted out and in a timeframe it takes to get all multipe involved parties satisfied.  No easy/quick task.  The 1Q CC analyst McDougal referred to 'the coming months and if we will receive updates on progress' , Industry interviews allude to deal finality by 'end of year, possibly'.  It can happen this Monday or on Halloween and it will not be surprising.

[jft310]

As of today RJ has published an updated "E & P Catalyst Outlook" that includes two anticipated events or announcements for IOC:

1.  Resource selldown to Exxon:  InterOil is in negotiations with Exxon regarding the sale of a stake in PRL 15 (which includes the Elk/Antelope resource base);  Exxon will utilize the gas to supply an additional train for its under-construction LNG project;  InterOil retains the right to build a competing LNG project with the remaining resource;  the selldown's fiscal terms have yet to be announced.  Exclusivity expired, opening the door for other players to negotiate.  ANTICIPATED DATE:  3Q13.  MAGNITUDE/IMPACT:  HIGH.

2.  Longer-term resource development strategy:  Once the resource selldown being negotiated is finalized, InterOil will be able to disclose the strategy for developing its remaining resource base, which may include a separate LNG project and/or condensate stripping plant.  ANTICIPATED DATE:  TBA.  MAGNITUDE/IMPACT:  HIGH.

Thanks Getit,

Since the original 'exclusivity' announcement, it has been obvious that deal#1 was feedstock and deal#2 was 'optionality' to decide what to do with the other 4.6T+.  It's been feedstock and further production from day 1.  Does anyone really think XOM won't close on a little crappy deal of 4.6T's?

The game has been fixed and it goes like this:

1)  XOM tnegotiates for whatever stake they want - first dibs.

2)  RDS/TOT and the rest bid for the remainder, if XOM doesn't take it all.

This gets sorted out and in a timeframe it takes to get all multipe involved parties satisfied.  No easy/quick task.  The 1Q CC analyst McDougal referred to 'the coming months and if we will receive updates on progress' , Industry interviews allude to deal finality by 'end of year, possibly'.  It can happen this Monday or on Halloween and it will not be surprising.

Getit for President

[sydbod]

Since the original 'exclusivity' announcement, it has been obvious that deal#1 was feedstock ..........

So what is the general opinion now? Do majority think it will be feedstock or do majority think it will be partnership entry into PNG LNG?

I am currently sitting on the fence with a 50/50 of either happening  considering OSH later information.

[Tree]

Since the original 'exclusivity' announcement, it has been obvious that deal#1 was feedstock ..........

So what is the general opinion now? Do majority think it will be feedstock or do majority think it will be partnership entry into PNG LNG?

I am currently sitting on the fence with a 50/50 of either happening  considering OSH later information.

The feedstock deal will include ownership stake.

[jft310]

Since the original 'exclusivity' announcement, it has been obvious that deal#1 was feedstock ..........

So what is the general opinion now? Do majority think it will be feedstock or do majority think it will be partnership entry into PNG LNG?

I am currently sitting on the fence with a 50/50 of either happening  considering OSH later information.

The feedstock deal will include ownership stake.

Syd ask yourself did OSH get an ownership stake??

Why  did they get an ownership stake?

What ownership percent did they get?

Where else can Exxon get the NG for a third  train with an already completed pipeline or quickly?

Best to not slide OSH into where Exxon can get the NG cause we both know its not there today.

Maybe in 4-5 years when Exoon opens their 4 th train OSH will have a chance but today not even a chance for Exxon's fourth train.

[jft310]

How many persons notiiced that Pavel expects Exxon news in Sept. See quote 3rd quarter event errr that would be by Sept 30th. We wait

[Investor1979]

How many persons notiiced that Pavel expects Exxon news in Sept. See quote 3rd quarter event errr that would be by Sept 30th. We wait

Yes, that 3rd quarter date is a big surprise, since recently Pavel said it was wrong to put deadlines out there.Does anyone speak to Pavel? Could it be a mistake? Certainly hope not!

[Getitrt2]

I did not make up the "Anticipated Date" of this month; it's what Pavel published Aug. 30. I would say that does not mean it's written in stone, but that it is his best judgment of when, and enough of an expectation to express it in the published outlook. Notice that he did not express an anticipated date for the second event; so he is not just guessing on everything.

[CAC]

How many persons notiiced that Pavel expects Exxon news in Sept. See quote 3rd quarter event errr that would be by Sept 30th. We wait

Yes, that 3rd quarter date is a big surprise, since recently Pavel said it was wrong to put deadlines out there.Does anyone speak to Pavel? Could it be a mistake? Certainly hope not!

**********

Pavel is downplaying the significance of this.  He indicates that the intent was to state that it could occur withing the next 30 days (i.e. that it is a potential short term catalyst).  He states that it has been on a similar list of short term catalysts since May.  He has stated that he thinks it would be wrong for IOC to put deadlines out there...and likely still thinks so...and the inclusion of this event on this list isn't inconsistent with that.  My takeway is that he thinks it could come at any time...but has thought that for the past 3-4 months.  It's not a specific prediction.