'jft310' pid='31932' datel Wrote:jft-I understand northoil's concerns,however your" IOC has more profit potential than either stock in the next few years than both put together" speaks volumes. As the old saying goes "truth is stranger than fiction" . [ key words .....'in the next few years' ]Some are paid to make stock price projections vs others that do their own work . Part of the problem here is definition. A price target is not NAV. That's confusing to some.
Morgan stated recently with their asumptiond that IOC was worth $105 with a deal using their guesses , their NAV in a different report was $225 . Yes there is a difference
Westlake stated an NAV of $225 with a price objective of $115 when they were revealing that work .
Macquarie first research report had an NAV over $200 a share and price objective around $100
Others will enter the party with their work . I expect a Goldman research report.
All the research houses will get another run at these numbers when the deals announced and I expect some reports to be book reports
One of the heavy unknowns is what will the shorts do and when. It's fair to say major pain for them last week . If part of last weeks rise was short covering then we have many more shorts to cover. Or what percentage of the shorts covered last week and will some be required to cover next week . I am in that camp that some shorts will be forced to cover Monday and more believers will enter the IOC arena.
The markets in my 50 years of experience anticipate and over shoot in both directions. IOC has more upside from here but exactly what's fair in price requires input variables which are missing today. I wait and marvel at last week . Look at what the markets did to Tesla and more recently to Twitter. IOC has more profit potential than either stock in the next few years than both put together. I base that on a third train at Exxon and condensate production. Both very reasonable assumptions.
Others can take their own stab at what the deal terms look like.