A new Seeking Alpha slam piece!

[arthurbell]

Another one!  How do they get away with it?

When I go to Las Vegas I like to play a little craps.  These short sale people remind me of the guy betting 'don't pass' all night and laughing at the group when we lose money!

It's time someone set the record straiight once and for all!

[Libtardius Maximus]

They must be nervous about something. Anyone hazard a guess what it might be?

[ebster123]

Lib, not for nothing but the "they must be nervous" has been used too often without merit. The only things they have to be nervous about are
1. A dividend declared
2. SEC review (a serious one) and an IOC program to fully expose the short. Anipulation
3. Minimization and cash production

Until any of these they have nothing to worry about

[Libtardius Maximus]

Eb,

I understand your comment but disagree with the without merit comment. My understanding is there are four presentations that IOC is making, the first two were NYC and Boston in the US on IOC's home continent. The next two are in London and Paris in TOT's home continent. Perhaps this week TOT will play a more active role to explain why the decided to participate in a partnership with IOC. They have been strangely silent.

[trans]

Eb, I understand your comment but disagree with the without merit comment. My understanding is there are four presentations that IOC is making, the first two were NYC and Boston in the US on IOC's home continent. The next two are in London and Paris in TOT's home continent. Perhaps this week TOT will play a more active role to explain why the decided to participate in a partnership with IOC. They have been strangely silent.

Spent some time tonight googling Chris Demuth Jr.  Rangeley Capital.   Didn't spend a lot of time, but on the internet he claims he's good friends with Whitney Tilson.  Also has been posting short side of Interoil for months.    Spend some time out there with google, and you'll see where the root of this short SA piece came from.      trans

[ebster123]

I totally agree (no pun intended but in hind site it may have been a Freudian slip). This whole thing is bogus. I believe MH is trying to do the right things and I am very happy with his process so far. However, I believe the old guard should be retired and the new guard should come in. I agree I am testy about WA but I feel he needs to go.

[admin]

Eb, I understand your comment but disagree with the without merit comment. My understanding is there are four presentations that IOC is making, the first two were NYC and Boston in the US on IOC's home continent. The next two are in London and Paris in TOT's home continent. Perhaps this week TOT will play a more active role to explain why the decided to participate in a partnership with IOC. They have been strangely silent.

They came out with a rather odd PR, with odd numbers and percentages, which the shorts now use as ammo.

All the more curious as Keubiko (bonk) normally use filings. There is a filing, and it uses an escalating pay scale, it also shows that the part of the variable resource payment up until 5.4Tcfe is the only part dependent on Fid.

Could that be because this is the minimum amount of gas they actually need to reach FID (rather than their best case P50 estimate)?

A further indication of that: the part of variable resource payment for gas in excess of that 5.4Tcfe isn't dependent upon FID, and is paid earlier (upon certification) and at a higher price.

Is that because with gas in excess of 5.4Tcfe they're comfortable they will proceed with FID, so it's no longer essential for it, so they can pay earlier and more generously?

Inquiring minds like to know..

[Crippsfl]

I totally agree (no pun intended but in hind site it may have been a Freudian slip). This whole thing is bogus. I believe MH is trying to do the right things and I am very happy with his process so far. However, I believe the old guard should be retired and the new guard should come in. I agree I am testy about WA but I feel he needs to go.

I don't think WA is going anywhere,  I think there was missed communication between upper management and investor relations as to the release of the details of deal.  I would think WA would have wanted a joint release between Total and IOC.  Might have reduced the damage.  I also think that there were some unreasonable expectations regarding the deal, myself included.  Important things are: 1)Deal is done.  2)Government is on board  3)Reduced risk with unlimited upside   4) More exploration to be done SOON

[ebster123]

Crip, someone needs to be the fall guy. Someone is responsible, someone or some people have repetitively not come through. This press release was shadows of when Phil was here hence I suspect it is WA. But the lack of accountability for screwing this up is horrible. This is not a mom and pop, this is a large public company.

[SamAdams]

Ebster, I certainly won't defend the old guard but the new guard knew expectations were unrealistic around deal price and they did not reset those. MH knew that. He didn't like the original XOM deal and dumped it yet did nothing to reset deal price which he knew was way off. Yes he got a good deal done and it starts the company on the path we've all been waiting for but expectations should have been reset. What you don't sell, you own. He sold the XOM deal, yet by saying nothing let the $ per mcf expectations stay out there. Not the $2 or higher but the $1 to $1.25 most of us were hoping to get and what the Street was modelling. MH is at the top. Certainly the CFO of a public needs to be aware of this as well as WA and his group. These are things the company can control and so even current management messed up. MH was on a plane to Singapore before the market opened that day and not on a cc explaining to the market the great deal he signed. That's reality and not a conspiracy.