Posts: 435
Threads: 18
Joined: Sep 2013
Reputation:
88
I must admit it is encouraging to see green on the board for the first time in some time. Even with the PPS is at only $50-51, perhaps we have turned a corner here. I am curious as to the thoughts of some regarding this nice little move off of the $44-45 range. Are we seeing short covering? Are buyers re-entering the stock after possibly selling post deal announcement and for tax reasons? Are new buyers waking up to IOC? The sense I get is that we reached a capitulation point, and that is based solely on contact with many small investors such as myself. What is the saying? "When you look around and can't find a reason to buy, buy as much as you can?" The psychology of we investors is funny. I am not speaking for anyone else, but from my standpoint, the depression of dropping dramatically after the deal announcement we all thought would send the stock to new highs has taken some time to get over. Now that some time has passed, personally I am re-focusing on the fundamentals, the resource, and a CEO who seems to have the background Interoil needs. Perhaps that sentiment applies to more than just myself. We have a stock here that has been seriously de-risked, and if we have a little patience, I think we all might be very well rewarded in the end. I am taking my eye off of the intraday and short term pps to some extent because we now own a stock that is going to be valued very simply on it's resource, it's execution, and it's agility to make the right deal here and there vs rumor and innuendo.
Good luck longs
Posts: 804
Threads: 126
Joined: Jun 2012
Reputation:
169
It is my honor to give you your first plus 1. Now don't let the cat hold your tongue.
Posts: 435
Threads: 18
Joined: Sep 2013
Reputation:
88
Haha. Thank you Lib. I will try to contribute where I can.
Posts: 6,851
Threads: 697
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
441
'jdeo1969' pid='35906' datel Wrote:
I must admit it is encouraging to see green on the board for the first time in some time. Even with the PPS is at only $50-51, perhaps we have turned a corner here. I am curious as to the thoughts of some regarding this nice little move off of the $44-45 range. Are we seeing short covering? Are buyers re-entering the stock after possibly selling post deal announcement and for tax reasons? Are new buyers waking up to IOC? The sense I get is that we reached a capitulation point, and that is based solely on contact with many small investors such as myself. What is the saying? "When you look around and can't find a reason to buy, buy as much as you can?" The psychology of we investors is funny. I am not speaking for anyone else, but from my standpoint, the depression of dropping dramatically after the deal announcement we all thought would send the stock to new highs has taken some time to get over. Now that some time has passed, personally I am re-focusing on the fundamentals, the resource, and a CEO who seems to have the background Interoil needs. Perhaps that sentiment applies to more than just myself. We have a stock here that has been seriously de-risked, and if we have a little patience, I think we all might be very well rewarded in the end. I am taking my eye off of the intraday and short term pps to some extent because we now own a stock that is going to be valued very simply on it's resource, it's execution, and it's agility to make the right deal here and there vs rumor and innuendo.
Good luck longs
Welcome aboard JDEO- You add some instant value to SHU.
I think some smaller shorts may be covering, but the stallwarts will not give up for a while. However I do agree that we are picking up some new whales or at least larger fish as the mid-40s really took us to a "safe" level for entry-point with pps being de-risked for reasonable investors. I also agree that the wash sale rule is gradually passing for anyone (like myself) who sold shares to cover gains in other positions. Likely we are also seeing anticipatory buying going into the London event on Monday and the Development Forum on the 20th mentioned by Minister Duma. If nothing much comes out of those, we can expect to see a drop until IPI negotiations are announced and the deal with Total closes.
Posts: 203
Threads: 3
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation:
45
I would add IOC's ability to control the narrative, professionally manage PR and proactively support the PPS. A quick visit to the IV board shows that rumor and innuendo are alive and well. Not suggesting they respond to rumors but if they fail to correct their serious PR deficiencies and combat the manipulation there is no reason to think the drill bit and execution will resolve the valuation. Monday's conference and the next release of news regarding IPI will tell us a lot about the lessons learned from 12/6. GLTA
Posts: 435
Threads: 18
Joined: Sep 2013
Reputation:
88
Thank you Palm. You give a very fair assessment. MikesIOC, I agree, they must get control of the narrative, and I have to believe management is doing so, although i have no direct proof of such. I do believe there were lessons learned from the 12/6 rollout, and if my gut is right regarding Hession, he is already addressing that deficiency. He strikes me as a competitive sort in reading his BIO, resume, etc. The company is on record that we will see more newsflow in the coming months and year(s) than we have ever seen from the company, and I do believe that will in itself be a counter measure vs. manipulation, but the legal aspect of that MUST be addressed.
Good luck Longs
Posts: 1,112
Threads: 88
Joined: Feb 2012
Reputation:
109
01-11-2014, 02:52 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-11-2014, 02:53 AM by ebster123.)
Jdeo, welcome, I would also suspect some who expected a stellar CC on 12/6 didn't get it and dumped shares on the hammering. This was likely done for the tax benefit to offset other gains with the expectation to repurchase after 30 days. We are in that time frame now. I would not be surprised to see a fairly organized rise to the low to mid 60's in the next 3-4 weeks. Baring news we may level off there for a while.
Posts: 435
Threads: 18
Joined: Sep 2013
Reputation:
88
Thank you ebster. I appreciate your input. This is where I find value in SHU. I am not one who has the industry and technical trading knowledge as so many here possess, so my questions come from the angle of a smaller investor looking for explanations and technical analysis that will benefit myself, and hopefully others in the same boat so to speak. Shout out to tusker with that boating analogy. Toot toot.
Good luck longs
Posts: 61
Threads: 10
Joined: Sep 2012
Reputation:
26
'jdeo1969' pid='35906' datel Wrote:
I must admit it is encouraging to see green on the board for the first time in some time. Even with the PPS is at only $50-51, perhaps we have turned a corner here. I am curious as to the thoughts of some regarding this nice little move off of the $44-45 range. Are we seeing short covering? Are buyers re-entering the stock after possibly selling post deal announcement and for tax reasons? Are new buyers waking up to IOC? The sense I get is that we reached a capitulation point, and that is based solely on contact with many small investors such as myself. What is the saying? "When you look around and can't find a reason to buy, buy as much as you can?" The psychology of we investors is funny. I am not speaking for anyone else, but from my standpoint, the depression of dropping dramatically after the deal announcement we all thought would send the stock to new highs has taken some time to get over. Now that some time has passed, personally I am re-focusing on the fundamentals, the resource, and a CEO who seems to have the background Interoil needs. Perhaps that sentiment applies to more than just myself. We have a stock here that has been seriously de-risked, and if we have a little patience, I think we all might be very well rewarded in the end. I am taking my eye off of the intraday and short term pps to some extent because we now own a stock that is going to be valued very simply on it's resource, it's execution, and it's agility to make the right deal here and there vs rumor and innuendo.
Good luck longs
That's a humdinger of a first post! Welcome! I can't say enough how much I agre with you. In my years of investing I have seen a lot of crazy things and there are times when fundamentals get thrown out of the nearest window! I think if you close your eyes for 18 months and look a the stock price it will still be $50, but after a 3-for-1 split!
Posts: 435
Threads: 18
Joined: Sep 2013
Reputation:
88
Thank you Arthur. One thing I have reminded myself of recently, is that time flies really. 1 month, three months, 6 months, 12 months will come rather quickly. Post deal announcement, in my disappointment at the pps drop, I wondered what catalysts are there to drive the stock back up? It's funny because they are right there in the deal itself. Deal closure, $613 Million, proving up the resource, FID, government support, and perhaps the market finally acknowledging that IOC now has a SM backing their resource(s). I'm missing others for sure, but it's funny how a little time helps one to gain perspective. I'm feeling good about this investment again, and I like many others likely waivered a bit in the wake of a really bad haircut. I added on December 6th at 59.97. Although I am underwater in that portion of my position, I am confident that it will turn out to be a profitable move in the not so distant future. Best to you sir.
Good luck longs
|
