Volume...

[johnwgrant]

Where has all the volume gone?

Not that I am complaining...   Just observing

[admin]

It's indeed remarkable, but it can probably count as a success of the new management:
- Short count is down
- Volatility is down
- Volume is down (as a result of the first two)

[Palm]

Exactly STP. People yelled and screamed that management had to do something about the shorts. Go the SEC, file expensive lawsuits! No, the best move was to shut down the leaks, control communications, say the least necessary and that will control the volatility. And it's worked. The pps has settled into a price range which makes sense for what is going on, the company has gained credibility in the institutional world and the short count has dwindled; all in less than a year. We should welcome this as it has been done without filing lawsuits and wasting a lot of money.

Life is much easier and pps will rise (or fall) based on facts in a reasonable stair-step.

[Tusker]

Perhaps it simply could be that this is the first weekend of the 04th of July holidays. Which reminds me, does anlybody recall what the perfect 1 correlation was about?

Have a fund weekend.

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[davidhmtk]

Perhaps it simply could be that this is the first weekend of the 04th of July holidays. Which reminds me, does anlybody recall what the perfect 1 correlation was about?

Have a fund weekend.

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One member of the management team attributed the lower volume to the withdrawal of many of the institutional shorts (due in his opinion to the credibility provided by Oilsearch's purchase of the E/A interest, blowing up the there is not a lot of gas there, just small high-pressure pockets mindset.  Seemingly, the shorts manipulated the stock price by trading the same shares back and forth between accounts.  Personally, I think the SEC's increased oversight is helping too.

[calaban48]

Perhaps it simply could be that this is the first weekend of the 04th of July holidays. Which reminds me, does anlybody recall what the perfect 1 correlation was about?

Have a fund weekend.

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As I recall, if the correlation coefficient is one, the variables have a perfect positive correlation. This means that if one variable moves a given amount, the second moves proportionally in the same direction. A positive correlation coefficient less than one indicates a less than perfect positive correlation, with the strength of the correlation growing as the number approaches one.

Just kidding. I never went to MBA school at Columbia.

http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/premba/analytical/s7/s7_5.cfm

Thanks for the concept, Mr. Tusker.

[Getitrt2]

I agree the increased attention to high frequency trading and dark pools by not only the SEC, but NY authorities, institutional and other investors, and the public, due apparently in large part to the recent book on it, has reduced market volumes; and it's about damn time. There needs to be effective follow through and something permanent done about it. I would say IOC volume has been significantly affected by a combination of that and, perhaps moreso, less short involvement and manipulation. However, nothing has been done about some of the unethical and illegal techniques used by shorts to manipulate the stock.

I don't think the primary cause of the large reduction in shorts is less communication from the Company and less "leaks". Without a lot of detail, I think it is the transformation of the Company's management and credibility and its fundamentals, and resolution of most uncertainty on monetization and other issues and short arguments used to create fear and manipulation.

I absolutely do not agree that the pps is now in a price range which makes sense for what is going on, very near where it was with the unjustified December price collapse. I would refer you to the Raymond James $100 target and analysis, and to the recent very comprehensive Macquarie report. Macquarie says the current price reflects a huge risking off the net present value of the resource sale and two-train LNG project, and they state, "the market is seemingly ascribing NO VALUE to IOC's significant exploration portfolio" (confirming what RJ has also said). They cite an unrisked Net Present Value per share of $171!

It's true the short positions are way down from highs, but over six million shares short is still huge, and don't tell me there was not plenty of manipulation going on around the AGM early this week. I say if management does not take action to fight and further reduce shorts and their activity, they will be doing a disservice to shareholders and making a big mistake, and the negative effect and danger will probably increase with a higher pps. I don't care if it costs $5 million or more; I say that would not only not be a "waste", but a potential significant benefit to shareholders, not to mention a service to justice. Furthermore, unlike before, there are plenty of resources to pursue that benefit and justice.

[Palm]

Management likely won't agree with that, but what do I know? And I think the whole SEC "crackdown" is overblown. Ever since the crash overall stock market volume has been on the decline for several reasons:
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/20...oltz-chart

With record low interest rates stocks are being sought out for returns, but not in great volumes. The VIX is near record lows which many times is not as positive as it might seem. Just before the tanking in 2007 it was at similar lows. I don't think we will have a major crash like that, but it usually means that stocks are fairly valued, and unless there is a major event in the world (which there are several possibilities right now) volume will likely stay low. IOC does not operate in a vacuum; Tuesday was a down day in the markets in general and energy was one sector which took a pretty good hit.

The valuations by Maq and RJ assume some exploration will hit and an LNG plant will get built. Markets tend to give no value until an exploration well is actually confirmed as a commercial find and an LNG plant until we are much further down the line. In the past pps has ballooned on hopes, but then gets hammered when "news" comes out. That's the volatility that new management has gotten under control IMHO.

[Palm]

If one really wants to look at history, pull up a chart of the Dow (or S&P) that shows both volume and value from 1985 until now. Look at how slowly the index and volume climbs until the mid-90s, Then both rise and fall together until just after the crash. Since then the index has recovered to new highs while volume has dropped off. There are several reasons, but IMHO the main thing has to do with demographics. The largest chunk of the baby boomers were making their most money in the 90's and stocks were the place to be. This created several excesses and helped bring about the tech boom and bust and finally the financial/housing boom and bust. At the last bust was when the boomers were beginning to retire in numbers and went into a saving mode and scaling back on housing and spending in general.

Savvy investors got back into the markets as the markets hit their lows in early 2009 and pretty much let the money ride. The generation behind the boomers is a pretty small crowd and were hurt and are still hurting from the crash. Even if they invested in "normal" amounts, their volume will be far less than the boomers. Then we have the Millenials who are just now hitting their 30's. This is a very large group population-wise, but the crash has had a big effect on them also. College debt and underemployment have them holding off getting married and buying houses (thus the still sluggish housing market) and investing. So we see this rising market with diminishing volume. Boomers have the vast amount of market wealth building, but the next 2 generations are much delayed in their savings/investing. Plus they don't trust the markets right now after what they saw happen.

All IMHO; use or flush.

[Libtardius Maximus]

It's indeed remarkable, but it can probably count as a success of the new management: - Short count is down - Volatility is down - Volume is down (as a result of the first two)

Admin, with all due respect, claiming the volume is down due to new managerment should indicate a volume increase of buyers wanting to get in on the stock at these levels. I could go on and on but let's face the fact that there is no volume because there is no drilling news that is tangible.

We have two issues that face us as shareholders. The first is drilling, the second is the resolution of minority rights with OSH. It has become clear to me that these two issues are joined at the hip. Keep in mind that OSH has 6 months exclusive on IPI leases on  wells being drilled ( so I have been told, please correct me if this is inaccurate since this was not brought up at AGM to my knowledge). The wild card in this once again is IPI and Civilli. Why would he sell when he doesn't know what he's selling and why would OSH buy for the same reason. The consequesnce of this is Hession not revealing drilling news. The longer this goes on the more it looks like a blend of something between a circular firing squad and a stalemate.

One other item of note that seems to have fallen off the radar post AGM. The politics of PNG sorta went by the wayside this week didn't it?