Hession and the wells

[jft310]

Pre drill written estimates on the IOC slides and earnings called stated by Hession were all 3 wells were multi T's estimated wells . I have verified Dave Holland is still with Interoil and advising Hession, Who thinks they know more than any poster on this board?

Second what did the AFR report in that Hession interview? Wahoo results from Wahoo he stated.

Then we have PET who rated the wells as 80,80 and 90 percent probable success

So who should you trust the company ? PET or people who know a fraction of what they know?

As to results but because they are slow doesn't mean the assets are not there.

Handicap odds of Holland being right and The AFR article.

Theres your answer

[admin]

Pre drill written estimates on the IOC slides and earnings called stated by Hession were all 3 wells were multi T's estimated wells . I have verified Dave Holland is still with Interoil and advising Hession, Who thinks they know more than any poster on this board?

Second what did the AFR report in that Hession interview? Wahoo results from Wahoo he stated.

Then we have PET who rated the wells as 80,80 and 90 percent probable success

So who should you trust the company ? PET or people who know a fraction of what they know?

As to results but because they are slow doesn't mean the assets are not there.

Handicap odds of Holland being right and The AFR article.

Theres your answer

But all that knowledge cannot undo the basic laws of probability which states that if you have three serially uncorrelated events with 0.8, 0.8 and 0.9 probabilities respectively, the chance of all three of these events happening is 0.8x0.8x0.9 = 0.576 or 57.6%.

[Palm]

Agree; the key is if you are saying "A and B and C" vs A or B or C.

[davidhmtk]

Pre drill written estimates on the IOC slides and earnings called stated by Hession were all 3 wells were multi T's estimated wells . I have verified Dave Holland is still with Interoil and advising Hession, Who thinks they know more than any poster on this board?

Second what did the AFR report in that Hession interview? Wahoo results from Wahoo he stated.

Then we have PET who rated the wells as 80,80 and 90 percent probable success

So who should you trust the company ? PET or people who know a fraction of what they know?

As to results but because they are slow doesn't mean the assets are not there.

Handicap odds of Holland being right and The AFR article.

Theres your answer

At the AGM, Hession was asked directly about the role of Holland.  We were told that Holland was at the well sites dealing with the issues.  A hopeful sign.  Don't muddy up the issue (pun intended) by referring to pre-drilling predictions that would be substantially revised if issued today, as you are aware.  Very cynical, JFT

[ArtM72]

Pre drill written estimates on the IOC slides and earnings called stated by Hession were all 3 wells were multi T's estimated wells . I have verified Dave Holland is still with Interoil and advising Hession, Who thinks they know more than any poster on this board?

Second what did the AFR report in that Hession interview? Wahoo results from Wahoo he stated.

Then we have PET who rated the wells as 80,80 and 90 percent probable success

So who should you trust the company ? PET or people who know a fraction of what they know?

As to results but because they are slow doesn't mean the assets are not there.

Handicap odds of Holland being right and The AFR article.

Theres your answer

At the AGM, Hession was asked directly about the role of Holland.  We were told that Holland was at the well sites dealing with the issues.  A hopeful sign.  Don't muddy up the issue (pun intended) by referring to pre-drilling predictions that would be substantially revised if issued today, as you are aware.  Very cynical, JFT

David -

Tell us why the pre-drilling predictions would be substantially revised today, that is unless you are talking about time and cost (which I don't believe you to be given the context of this thread).  Unless you know differently I'd say maybe, given the tight shale cap that became problematic, chances of success might even be slightly higher as we now know there is a very tight cap in place in an area with a lot of kitchen.

[Kaliboo]

Pre drill written estimates on the IOC slides and earnings called stated by Hession were all 3 wells were multi T's estimated wells . I have verified Dave Holland is still with Interoil and advising Hession, Who thinks they know more than any poster on this board?

Second what did the AFR report in that Hession interview? Wahoo results from Wahoo he stated.

Then we have PET who rated the wells as 80,80 and 90 percent probable success

So who should you trust the company ? PET or people who know a fraction of what they know?

As to results but because they are slow doesn't mean the assets are not there.

Handicap odds of Holland being right and The AFR article.

Theres your answer

At the AGM, Hession was asked directly about the role of Holland.  We were told that Holland was at the well sites dealing with the issues.  A hopeful sign.  Don't muddy up the issue (pun intended) by referring to pre-drilling predictions that would be substantially revised if issued today, as you are aware.  Very cynical, JFT

David -

Tell us why the pre-drilling predictions would be substantially revised today, that is unless you are talking about time and cost (which I don't believe you to be given the context of this thread).  Unless you know differently I'd say maybe, given the tight shale cap that became problematic, chances of success might even be slightly higher as we now know there is a very tight cap in place in an area with a lot of kitchen.

Hession didn't really give us any details on the problems other than mentioning the shale.   A few sentences, that's all.   I don't know about these sediments, but there could also have been shallow hazards that have caused them a lot of grief and delay too.  At least in the offshore in some cases we've actually had to move a subsea well to another location because of shallow subsurface problems that we can't resolve after several lengthy attempts.  Very costly.  But not very far away you don't see em.  You drill the same well design with no problems.  But pick the wrong spot, and it's hell.  So there's also luck involved.  This may not at all be the case here, and we may never be told.   But as we've heard and talked about until the cows come home, there is a lot of uncertainty in drilling an exploration well. At least we finally got some news out of the "cone of silence."