The NG Estimates

[Putncalls]

I hate to bring this up again BUT. The market seems to be using the GCA report in determining the PPS. There seems to be no GLG based expectations.  If the GLG Estimates were in the PPS we would be near the 100$ mark and most people would be happy.  The market has been correct before on IOC?

Could PM and IOC have influenced the GLA estimate? I wish I had a copy!!!!!!

[jft310]

Look on Sedar it's there. PET quotes from the report occasionally .
Total has committed to build an LNG plant with Interoil per the interview with Hession in the Australian Financial review and meetings are taking place amongst the partners for that plant.
All public all black and white for all to see.

[Putncalls]

MS quote NOV 2013 page 5. Best discussion I have seen on the 5T versus 10 debate I have come across.

"We believe the desire for additional
appraisal drilling does not reduce the estimated resource.
Further, given the active appraisal and exploration program,
we expect IOC will be probabilistically adding to its resource
base supporting and/or proving gas for a second train."

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ju8ffbqsqvw8v2...202013.pdf

[SamAdams]

Both will be "thrown out" for certification and three new firms wll decide.

[jft310]

Was it 3 new firms or chose a third Sam ?

[SamAdams]

They both choose one and then agree on third, excluding GCA and GLG. Then if course we have 2nd cert in back pocket.

[Putncalls]

Why are GCA and GLG not acceptable? GLG seems to have a good reputation in Canada.
Do you think IOC well hold back the A4/5 results until these three new companies are done looking at all the data all over again? It seems like the market decided GCA is the best estimator.
Thanks.

[Palm]

It's GLJ; they are not considered a heavyweight in the industry. Doesn't mean they're bad or inaccurate, but to get a SM and lenders to buy in they want the best known and industry-accepted companies doing the estimates.

[Putncalls]

Thanks for the GLJ tips Palm.

Any opinion on why GCA and GLJ differ so much? If any thing, A3 just "reinforced the post A2 GLJ estimate.

[SamAdams]

Correct  palm, GLJ and nothing wrong with them.  Enough top tier firms left to satisfy Total and lenders and that is perhaps some of the disconnect on value.  It's an opportunit, not  a red flag IMO.