In a worst case scenario, what is the value of the company per share?

[Optionray]

WIth the plant sold, all debt paid off, and the remaining ownership of antelope gas sold to someone at the same price sold to total, what would you estimate the current net worth per share to be?    That is without any value given to any future prospects and assuming all exploration has stopped.  Be nice to know that number if the pps hits that number Im all in.

[algon223]

Along with the desire for a return to a more substantive approach it would be helpful to have follow-up to optionray's question. Unfortunately I don't feel able to provide useful added value, but it would be great to have the input of those who can. Thanks.

[admin]

Well, there are various analyst reports out as an approximation, although the answer to that would be that we already hit Optionray's number, and I never advice anyone to go "all in" There is always stuff that can happen, not necessarily to IOC but to the markets in general, which seem valued to such an extent as to not being able to digest any major mishap (Chinese debt crisis, Japanese bond flight, some exotic derivatives market imploding upon itself, a geo-political crisis, etc. etc.)

[SamAdams]

OR, I thought I had replied to this but apparently I didn't.  I would say $80.  This assumes, certification of 8ts, see page 11 of most recent presentation.  That number includes some carry, but they also have substantial cash that wouldn't be spent.  Then   assume a similar sales price of their remaining interest.  Perhaps a couple of bucks lower.  Market currently not fully pricing certification, never mind LNG or exploration upside.  The missing link is timing. If all goes to plan, certification next year,  the downside is 40% upside, if that makes sense.

[jft310]

The more one assumes and the more that's certified the larger the LNG plant.
Morgan, RJ and Maquarie most recently have net asset values numbers in their reports. Best to look at those numbers. Well above $80.

[Optionray]

WIth the plant sold, all debt paid off, and the remaining ownership of antelope/elk gas sold to someone at the same price sold to total, what would you estimate the current net worth per share to be?    That is, without any value given to any future prospects and assuming all exploration has stopped.  Be nice to know that number because if the pps hits that number I'm all in.

Would like to get an objective dollar amount (pps), broken out, based on the above.  I feel at this amount (whatever the number is ), that is the point where we have to worry about a take over by total, xom, or someother company.  Can anyone come up with a number, broken out to support the number?  From there, with that pps established, someone could then calculate a PPS with the poision pill factored in, then mortgage the house (joke) if the pps hits that number because the buyout will happen.

If there is a pull back in the market and IOC goes down with the ride, I'll be ready (loading up on leaps) if I can get a calculation that gets me an objective pps based on the above.  I give our gas more value than gold quite honestly, especially in a hostile world environment.

[jft310]

The work you are asking for is in the research reports. Not the pages you see posted here but in the full research reports. Many of the reports have links. Most recently I posted a link to Macquarie which has a table with Net Asset Values. Look for NAV numbers and those answers from all 3 firms are in some of their research reports . They do NOT compute NAV numbers with each report.
Start with Macquarie , pull up the report and hit print. Read it and then ask further questions.
Macquarie states in writing for all to see that Interoil stock price trades at 65 percent discount to its NAV.
They provide page after page of information on how they computed that number.

[Stavros]

Optionray: I look at it as follows:

OSH bought 22% of PRL 15 for $900 million based on the lower of the two gas estimates 7.1 TCF. They're willing to (and expect to) pay more after further drilling.

TOTAL bought 40% of PRL 15 in a convoluted deal that no one can figure out the value. Let's say the total is something like $1500 million at 7.1 TCF minus the $400 already paid to IOC.

IOC retains 38% of PRL 15. If sold to someone at the same price per percent as OSH paid, that would come to $1550 million.

Cash on hand is probably on the order of $600 million

So add it up:

$1550 + 1100 + 600 = $3250 million.

Divide by 50 million shares = $65 per share

In a week or two, when we get positive results from Raptor and Bobcat the outlook changes ... IOC will be looked at as more than a one trick honey (er pony)

If they ever drill the delineation wells, the story changes since it's very likely that the estimate will increase measurably.

[jft310]

And it's clear the IOC BOD while waiting for well results from Raptor, Bobcat , the delineation wells and Wahoo will not sell the company so today's value means nada. Total is committed per Hession in that AFR article to build some type LNG plant for Interoil . Macquarie understands and accepts that and uses those assumptions in their NAV model. That's should be your baseline until we know more.

Further finding reservoir rock at any of the current well drills proves the string of pearls theory. We already know they have found the shale rock per the Wahoo press release. Helps the stock price.

Stavros could be using the Antelope time line as a guide to Raptor and Bobcat results expectations. That time line is also agreed to by RJ.

[Optionray]

Optionray: I look at it as follows:

OSH bought 22% of PRL 15 for $900 million based on the lower of the two gas estimates 7.1 TCF. They're willing to (and expect to) pay more after further drilling.

TOTAL bought 40% of PRL 15 in a convoluted deal that no one can figure out the value. Let's say the total is something like $1500 million at 7.1 TCF minus the $400 already paid to IOC.

IOC retains 38% of PRL 15. If sold to someone at the same price per percent as OSH paid, that would come to $1550 million.

Cash on hand is probably on the order of $600 million

So add it up:

$1550 + 1100 + 600 = $3250 million.

Divide by 50 million shares = $65 per share

In a week or two, when we get positive results from Raptor and Bobcat the outlook changes ... IOC will be looked at as more than a one trick honey (er pony)

If they ever drill the delineation wells, the story changes since it's very likely that the estimate will increase measurably.

Thanks for the info, that really helps.  The current pps defies logic then, unless I'm missing something what do you think could account for a PPS of $53.00?  I'd really be surprised if OSH or XOM doesn't attempt a takeover soon.  If the prices goes to $42.50 (poison pill target), I'll mortgage the house  At $53, it really does look like a screamin buy!