"Low" Takeover Bid Coming? Would not be in the best interest of shareholders

[Stavros]

Some folks on this and other Message Boards say they believe a takeover bid at this point in time would be in the range of $75 - 95 per share ... a LOW BID to my opinion. Remember the article in the past speculating that Teck Resources was planning to make an offer at $85?

That would be a 30-65% premium over today's PPS.

Nice if you bought IOC shares in the recent past.

Not so nice if you bought shares at $75 on November 10, 2010 in the Secondary offering and still hold them

Not so nice if you bought shares at $90 before December 6, 2013 in anticipation of a PRL 15 Sell Down that satisfied the Market and still hold them

If IOC Management agrees to accept a LOW BID, they would be letting the company down, especially long term shareholders (me included) who are still holding a lot of shares at significant losses.

[jft310]

There is no way IOC should sell at this time. The certification payment gives us the cash to build the LNG. Forget it

[jft310]

With Macquarie's NAV of $171 if management tried to sell the company NOW they would be sued by many.

[Putncalls]

I guess the future cash question is. Who is correct?
KR?
GLJ?
GCA?
Who does MH believe?

[jft310]

With at least 2 delineation wells to drill plus Antelope Deep rated 3 T's by Macquarie so much is not known and we have uncapped upside.

[Stavros]

OSH bought their stake in PRL 15 based on the Gaffney Cline & Associates (GCA) evaluation of 7.1 TCF with significant upside when additional data is obtained/analysed from 2 more wells.

GLJ estimated a higher amount of gas in PRL15 because they've spent much more time evaluating the data and developed a reservoir model that was not developed by GCA due to time constraints.

GCA's estimate is in-line with GLJ's conclusions in my opinion ... ie they'll probably up the number when their data base in more complete.

[jft310]

OSH bought their stake in PRL 15 based on the Gaffney Cline & Associates (GCA) evaluation of 7.1 TCF with significant upside when additional data is obtained/analysed from 2 more wells. GLJ estimated a higher amount of gas in PRL15 because they've spent much more time evaluating the data and developed a reservoir model that was not developed by GCA due to time constraints. GCA's estimate is in-line with GLJ's conclusions in my opinion ... ie they'll probably up the number when their data base in more complete.

Hession stated recently throw out all the prior estimates we will chose a new reservoir engineer. I bet it's Netherland Sewell who has done work on PNG  for Marathon and Oil Search has used them for 15 years.

[Movieguy]

I do not believe that IOC would officially accept any offer that is not well over $100/share. I think any "lowball" offers that come should be looked at as a starting point for either a higher bid from the same company or an invitation for other entities to bid. My belief is that an actual takeout price will be $120 - 150.

[Dr. Wu]

Anyone who attended the AGM and spent time with management during the 2 hour reception afterward, would never buy into a sale happening at those quoted prices OR AT THiS TIME.  I cant comment on the motivations of bidders but to believe Hession and tearm would cut and run without a very very significant premium - is IMO nonsense.  The acreage as management sees it is too prospective, new partners have a large vested interest in potentially significant and recurring cash flow, and importantly, the large holders would never let it happen.  Having said that, price is the great equalizer and if this drilling program and recertification proves successful, the admission to play will have gone up meaningfully.  I suggest all you takeover speculators out there just give it a rest and let the fundamentals play out.

[Stavros]

Remember that Richard Chandler was quoted in the Daily Mail's article about Teck Resources in February. What's curious to me is that no one refuted the article at the time.

"Teck’s advisor Bank of America Merrill Lynch has apparently already reached agreement with IOC’s major 19.8 per cent shareholder, Chandler Corporation, and has held several meetings with the IOC management about transacting a ‘friendly’ deal." ... at $85

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets...inues.html

Let's hope that IOC Management hasn't been positioning IOC in the past 6 months to accept a takeover at the PPS levels people are posting.

I agree with "Movieguy's" conclusion.