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Deducing Current Status of Bobcat and Raptor
#1

1. Hession says we will get well results in September.

Hession would not be able to commit to well results in September if drilling was still in process.  Anything can happen while still drilling.  The implication of his being able to make the commitment is that drilling is finished and evaluation is taking place. As JFT has stated, the evaluation of well logs may be happening now.

2. Hession has said that well results will be announced when wells are completed.

If drilling is finished, the wells being completed is likely, as JFT stated, being defined as completing the evaluation of the well logs and receiving the report.

3. Hession says Bobcat and Raptor have shown presence of thermogenic hydrocarbons.

This would be known from hydrocarbon shows while drilling through the reservoir rock.  At Wahoo the shows were in a porous interval in the shale.  But if they were still in the shale at Bobcat and Raptor, Hession would not be able to make the commitment for results in September.

4. Exuberance and optimism were expressed at the Bernstein CC.

Conclusions from the above:  We may conclude that the likely current status of Bobcat and Raptor is that drilling through the reservoir rock is finished, that logs (or other evaluation and testing) is taking place and Hession is confident he will be able to meet his commitment to furnish results this month.  Since he is conservative, that could be anytime.  From the exuberance and optimism at the Bernstein CC, coupled with hydrocarbon shows, we may conclude that IOC believes, pending the log reports, that we will have a discovery in one or both wells.

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#2
Thy -

I'd love to agree, but we're parsing a lot of words here. "Well results" could have the adjectives "to date", "preliminary" or "final" attached. Thermogenic hydrocarbons were reported in the mudstone seal cap of Wahoo. Their mention does not suggest we are in the reservoir rock of Bobcat or Raptor.

I'll remain optimistic but will hold my exuberance for the first report of a successful reprepresentative drill stem test. Until then, I will continue to highly value the opinions and most highly the information and insights offered on this board.

Good long luck.
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#3
Well we all can agree they should be through the shale by now. Hitting reservoir rock is not well results. Certainly enough time has expired to be at TD we also can agree.
My guess is they evaluating logs with a known completion of that evaluation. How else could Hesion have set the bar where he did after the 60-90 days estimate bobo.
I can see zero reason for the OSH option to not expire.
I expect staggered well announcements for maximum effect .
No idea what the results are or which well first.
To me my opinion both wells will be successful based on a Hession swaggering attitude, basin talk, Laurie Brown addition etc. Bernstein is trying to communicate this is my guess.
Others may be more conservative. Yes we have been burned in the past .
Isn't it time for an IOC shareholder win. .My opinion errrrrr yes.
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#4
Exuberance, swagger, optimism, and guessing its time for a shareholder win are subjective, wishful thinking. September? I'll believe it when I see it. We've missed more than one timeline already. Hession noted 10% as an expectation for drilling success. Bernie has stated that there is a 50% chance of success at one (1) of four (4) sites: WBR and AD. Anyone getting any younger here?
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#5

'mikesioc' pid='49263' datel Wrote:  Anyone getting any younger here?

Actually, yes, I am.  Been lengthening my telomeres and getting younger so I can be around when IOC starts shipping LNG....and they will, if they aren't bought out.

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#6
We agree on this Mike it's been a frustrating ride. That ride has nothing to do with the future.
I have always stated one way or another someone will monetize this Huge asset. That's why I am sticking with it. Why selling the company early is not prudent.
If the bullish talk is right there is no reason we can't build the Total plant and have Exxon and Total compete for assets outside PRL 15.
Per the MD and A last quarter we will hear drilling results by the end Sept . That's less than 4 weeks away . If positive my scenario of Exxon and Total competing for assets comes true.
Why Interoil's assets vs Oil Search .. Simple Interoil gas is cheaper to develop by a bunch .
If we know that then Exxon knows that. Bernstein certainly knows the cost advantages.
Let's see how all this plays out over the next year .
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#7

'kommonsents' pid='49264' datel Wrote:

Been lengthening my telomeres and getting younger so I can be around when IOC starts shipping LNG....and they will, if they aren't bought out.

Here is how to do that:

The best anti-ageing technique could be standing up, scientists believe, after discovering that spending more time on two feet protects DNA.

How standing might be the best anti-ageing technique - Telegraph

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#8
Actually LNG stock prices move well before shipping LNG .
Stock symbol LNG has no revenue no LNG shipments and the stock price had risen from $2 to 80.
Oil Seach has risen 10 fold adjusted for dilution before the Exxon plant opened.
The problem is the uncertainly for Interoil of when for FID and the size of the Total payment. Finding more helps . The size of tbe check is a biggie.
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#9

'jft310' pid='49269' datel Wrote:Actually LNG stock prices move well before shipping LNG . Stock symbol LNG has no revenue no LNG shipments and the stock price had risen from $2 to 80. Oil Seach has risen 10 fold adjusted for dilution before the Exxon plant opened. The problem is the uncertainly for Interoil of when for FID and the size of the Total payment. Finding more helps . The size of tbe check is a biggie.

Yes, and this will happen when people least expect it. It might not even be synchronized with news, simply arriving a point where some new buyers appear or selling has exhausted itself. What I expect, and what is usual in these situations is that the stock price will display long periods of relative stagnation or even decline, interspresed with short bouts of moving significantly higher.

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#10

'admin' pid='49266' datel Wrote:

'kommonsents' pid='49264' datel Wrote:

Been lengthening my telomeres and getting younger so I can be around when IOC starts shipping LNG....and they will, if they aren't bought out.

Here is how to do that:

The best anti-ageing technique could be standing up, scientists believe, after discovering that spending more time on two feet protects DNA.

How standing might be the best anti-ageing technique - Telegraph  

Thanks, Admin.  Hadn't read that before.  I guess I should have kept my standup office.

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