'calvin grad' pid='49530' datel Wrote:
Lets assume that Woodside believes that Elk Antelope has 8T, that Antelope Deep has 4 Ts. that Triceratop has 2T, That Bobcat has 2T, that Raptor has 2T and that Wahoo has 6T with a possibility of some oil. They know IOC has around 20 more drilling possibilities.. Would that be enough to make an offer of 150 per share?
Lets assume that they do and that it is accepted and it goes through and they now own Interoil.and so in essence they are Interoil.. Lets also assume that it is ruled that Interoil can not make the deal with Total.. Are they then reguired to let OSH
have the Total deal or can they say No we will not sell our interest to anyone, we will keep that interest for ourselves? I think they could get the deal approved if they promised faster development.
I like they way you are thinking, Calvin, as I too would like to see a 3-digit offer. Your T estimates seem quite optimistic to me, as you have multiple Ts everywhere, yet if one accepts them, then I think your bid number to me is way too low. In terms of a takeover price, I would say each T is worth about $15 to the share price pre-FID.. In your scenario there are 24Ts. If there becomes real evidence for those numbers to be reasonable conventional wisdom, then I think we are talking about a takeover in the $360/share range. As of now I think conventional wisdom is 7-8Ts, with the rest completely unproven, though theorized.