Dr Hession's trade

[jft310]

In striking the deal with Total made a trade of a current payment in full for the sold assets to a future uncertain payment.

Hession was so convinced that Interoil had more assets to find in PRL 15 that he gave up the certainty of a fixed now payment

based on GCA's estimate in a trade for two new certification amounts at future dates .

Hession came to believe what Henry Aldorf, Phil Mulacek , Dave Holland and the U.S. Geologic Survey believe that Antelope is

not alone and more assets will be found . Hession has a contract to be paid on those finds within PRL 15 .

He has not been in a hurry to do a sell down of assets outside PRL 15 because with a find those assets are worth many times

the unfound asset price.

Looking at a longer term view these are very good decisions for shareholders . Getting paid more twice over a long term is

unheard of in the oil and gas business. Hession did that for those that can wait. Getting more for finding more assets out side

PRL 15 is also a good long term position for Interoil shareholders.

If one believes Hession, Laurie Brown , US Geologic Survey , Henry Aldorf, Phil Mulacek , Dave Holland , GLJ , Knowledge

Reservoir, Schlumberger etc etc then this is a great investment . This may not be a Oct 8 2014 great stock price check.

How about looking ahead just 12 months . Others who get paid millions to write the reports called research called analysts all

think Interoil stocks price will be substantially higher within 12 months.

Comes down to believe those that know more or the stock markets random walk now assuming the end of the world.

Hint the world's not ending .

[kkozkkoz]

Those so called analysts were also calling for a higher stock price 12 months ago.  How did that turn out.  I believe in the long term future of the company I just didn't think it would ever take this lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng.

[sydbod]

Worth a read for some general information:
http://www.afr.com/p/special_reports/ene...udY0a3GNUI

Meanwhile debate rages as to whether InterOil is already overvalued, although Bernstein, the influential Wall Street research house, recently joined the bulls with an outperform rating on the stock.

Bernstein senior oil and gas analyst Neil Beveridge followed that up last month after a discussion with Hession that he told clients gave “increased ­conviction” on its rating.

He said a “root and branch ­restructuring” of the management had enhanced InterOil’s credibility, while the link-up with Total and Oil Search on Elk-Antelope set that venture up as a potential “major LNG export project.”

[Getitrt2]

Worth a read for some general information: http://www.afr.com/p/special_reports/ene...udY0a3GNUI Meanwhile debate rages as to whether InterOil is already overvalued, although Bernstein, the influential Wall Street research house, recently joined the bulls with an outperform rating on the stock. Bernstein senior oil and gas analyst Neil Beveridge followed that up last month after a discussion with Hession that he told clients gave “increased ­conviction” on its rating. He said a “root and branch ­restructuring” of the management had enhanced InterOil’s credibility, while the link-up with Total and Oil Search on Elk-Antelope set that venture up as a potential “major LNG export project.”

Who is it you are saying is arguing that "InterOil is already overvalued"?  I know of no one with any credibility.

I just realized you are taking that from the article without quotation marks. I can't imagine who they would be referring to.

[kerekesc]

Perhaps one only has to look at the number of shorts to find an answer to that question.

[mikesioc]

The market thinks IOC is worth $48 as I type. So obviously someone disagrees with all of the analysts and since the article was written we are down further. Listening to all the excuses from everyone has become a tired joke. The most anyone should be looking out into the future for results is 12 months. In that time we'll know preemptive rights, whatever is going on with WBR and re-certification. Hession can't play games forever. Somewhere in there IOC will be bought out and there is nothing Hession can do about it but he is certainly doing his best to minimize the upside.

[jft310]

Selling the company requires a majority of votes yes. There is no way to sell this company early with a multi billion dollar payment due second half of 2015. The cash payment can be larger than the current market cap.
forget about the nonsense of seling the company.
expect a large payment in 2015.
Would you sell all the oil and gas juniors in the world???
The African juniors are down 44 percent year to date.
Read the Seeking Alpha article on the sector.
Best to look at the big picture

[mikesioc]

You make my point exactly JFT. No one in their right mind is going to pay as much or more for 40% of one lease as they could for the entire company. If they do they should be in another business. Owning 100% for a reasonable premium is far more likely than IOC getting paid its market cap or more for a portion of one lease. This is already Total's company to do as they please. If you believe your own words its a no brainer for Total to pay $120 bucks for all of IOC. As long as we languish as an undervalued junior anyone scoffing at $120 needs to have their head examined. Frankly the way Hession is going it could be considerably less than that. A hostile today could get it done for under $100.

[ArtM72]

If the market had a good idea what the resources are likely to be in IOC's PPLs then I would grant that 100% over market value might be reasonable. The fact of the matter is no analyst has assigned any value to those licenses. Give prospects with known caps, thermogenic hydrocarbon kitchens and plenty of gravity, geomagnetic and seismic indications of reservoir rock away for free? Hah.

I suspect takeover of IOC has not been pursued because a bidding war would be certain. The SMs appear happy enough to buy chunks when assets are proven.

[Nolan]

I agree, but a bidding war would not get the price over $100. I agree with mike. If a couple of major holders become disgruntled, we could see a sale. Even a $2.5B payment from Total does not get the stock price over $100. Let's find oil.