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My 2 cents with the information that I have at this time:
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Discoveries are really meaningless to the PPS over the next 4-6 years (minus oil)
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It will take 4+ wells to really map the discovery to remove the speculation on size
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I don't really see IOC having the funds to drill 4+ wells at Wahoo/Bobcat/Tri/Raptor without the income of a LNG plant
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When IOC farms out these discoveries, they won't do so until they fully understand the size (aka after at least 4 wells) so they don't go through the uncertainty of resource size they are currently dealing with in Antelope.
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Maybe this is why Hession is trying to downplay the drilling results
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Speculation on size of future discoveries while fun will lead to disappointment as your expectations will not be met for years.
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Market doesn't assign any value to the gas we have in PRL 15, why is it going to assign value to new discoveries
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I have reason to believe the arbitration is smoke and mirrors
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The next event shareholders should really be focusing on is recert of Ant between Total/IOC
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Hopefully the structure does extend further to the south and west and I am assuming drilling Ant 4&5 will increase the size
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Why do some posters keep thinking we are going to be bought out??
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Over a two years ago we just opened our data room to everyone on the planet and no one was impressed enough to buy us out then.
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How are we really any different today then 2 years ago when we were trying to selldown
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Why would someone buy us out when OSH is actually producing and making $$$ - me thinks they are a better target
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"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
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News of Ant Deep not being connected to Ant is not good news as we now will only be getting 100 mill for every Tcf in that discovery.
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Total is probably thrilled
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This stock is a Long Term Hooooollllddddd
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Most posters understand all of the above, I have just summarized it from 581 posts
Health and Happiness,
Hemi
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IOC Future as interpreted by Salman Khan on Khan Academy.....
Love it...
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Hemi, with all due respect, I believe at least some of the statements in your post are questionable.
" When IOC farms out these discoveries, they won't do so until they fully understand the size (aka after at least 4 wells) so they don't go through the uncertainty of resource size they are currently dealing with in Antelope."
I don't know of anything, Hession's statements regarding monetization of gas discoveries or anything else, to support this statement. Do you?
"News of Ant Deep not being connected to Ant is not good news as we now will only be getting 100 mill for every Tcf in that discovery."
That statement is based on poor understanding. We know that Antelope Deep is deeper than Antelope. If the two were in communication, Antelope Deep would be under water. There would be no gas to add to Antelope's at certification.
But there is no "news of Ant Deep not being connected to Ant". There is a statement by Laurie Brown that he believes it probably isn't. (Pet came to a similar conclusion a long time ago.) We will have to drill Antelope Deep to be sure.
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Ah........ IOC still owns 38% of antelope deep. Just because they don't get a lot of near term cash for it doesn't make it bad.
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We also will own 30% gross of the LNG produced that's a much bigger number. Ant Deep may push us over the top of the GLJ numbers . Wouldn't that be sweet.
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full moon is in your sector.......
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11-15-2014, 01:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-15-2014, 01:17 PM by ArtM72.)
I absolutely love the graphic but Hemi, I just can't agree gas in the ground without a pipe going to it has little or no value. I don't quarrel with the fact that idea has been continuously promoted around here for quite some time. I also don't quibble with the idea that anything repeated often enough becomes an apparent truth. It just seems so clearly evident to me that so long as there is a pipeline to an LNG facility a single well from anywhere near that pipeline has real value.
As for drilling additional delineation wells at Raptor/Bobcat/Wahoo we are talking now less than $50M per crack. After the TOT resource payment in 2015 the only way IOC wouldn't be able to afford a couple more wells at each location would be if they attempted to add six new pearls to the string. Yeah, the time will eventually come when they have to belly up to the bar with LNG plant capital but with what seems to be a likely 6/6 just why wouldn't they want to confirm those and go 9/9? What would that mean? Hell, enough gas to run all of SE Asia for the next couple of decades? Which major wouldn't want a big part of that to add to its portfolio?
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11-15-2014, 04:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-15-2014, 04:40 PM by efi426hemi.)
'Thylacine-2' pid='52021' datel Wrote:Hemi, with all due respect, I believe at least some of the statements in your post are questionable. " When IOC farms out these discoveries, they won't do so until they fully understand the size (aka after at least 4 wells) so they don't go through the uncertainty of resource size they are currently dealing with in Antelope." I don't know of anything, Hession's statements regarding monetization of gas discoveries or anything else, to support this statement. Do you? "News of Ant Deep not being connected to Ant is not good news as we now will only be getting 100 mill for every Tcf in that discovery." That statement is based on poor understanding. We know that Antelope Deep is deeper than Antelope. If the two were in communication, Antelope Deep would be under water. There would be no gas to add to Antelope's at certification. But there is no "news of Ant Deep not being connected to Ant". There is a statement by Laurie Brown that he believes it probably isn't. (Pet came to a similar conclusion a long time ago.) We will have to drill Antelope Deep to be sure.
Thanx for you feedback Thy - my comments:
Your question in yellow regarding my comment about farm out deals - I asked this question twice at the AGM this year to Hession and Ford N.
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Hession was his usual I will talk a lot without answering your question but you will feel good about yourself when I am done,
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Ford however - specifically addressed this and reviewing my notes this is what he said with no hesitation:
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“Why would we cap our upside?” He then followed up that it may make sense in the future, however IOC needed to do some significant exploration first.
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I believe there will be additional farm out deals/SPAs with other PRL`s - it is the quickest way to expand - especially if our exploration continues to be successful
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I have no link, paper clippings, audio file, etc - so use or flush
Your question in green regarding Ant Deep being under water - I disagree with your assessment:
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Your assessement is based upon a simple geological model that infers a horizontal owc
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Fair enough - that may be the case, however in the following brilliant post by Kaliboo (one which was in response to your request) there are a few interesting comments:
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Link: http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/showthread.php?tid=6280&pid=42698#pid42698
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Paragraph 2 - Kaliboo clearly defines that geological models can be very complex
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Paragraph 4 - 1st sentence: From what I've read in the SPA (if memory is working) and elsewhere on IOC's site, it seems the term "in communication" is used very loosely.
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Paragraph 5 - 5th sentence: They are concluding that simply because they are very similar, the wells are "in communication." They may be. It may even be highly probable.
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Paragraph 7 - Kaliboo suggests that it is impossible without drilling to determine if communication is possible or not
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SPA
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Reading page 74 of the SPA says some interesting things
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Elk Field - Any petroleum encountered in future well in the Elk Field or its lateral components this in pressure communication....
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Ant Field - Any petroleum encountered in future well in the Ant Field or its lateral components this in pressure communication....
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Lateral components infer a more complex field and perhaps Ant can't communicate with Ant Deep but maybe a lateral component could
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I am no expert and this may not be a practical interpretation (Imight be speaking out of my ass) - however from Kaliboo's post, geological complexity offers a myriad of possiblities
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Coincidence that doesn't prove anything
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Why was page 74 added to the SPA - for Mule Deer only?
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I don't think so, as I have never heard any exec talk excitedly about Mule Deer
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IOC renames Big Horn to Antelope Deep
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Executives begin making statements like "Why do you think we renamed it to Ant Deep?"
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In summary - I don't believe your statement (Ant Deep under water if in communication) can hold any more weight than my understanding that the IOC exec believed it was in communication.
Art
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You state: It just seems so clearly evident to me that so long as there is a pipeline to an LNG facility a single well from anywhere near that pipeline has real value.
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That is my point - there is no pipeline to a LNG facility and won't be for 5 years.
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XOM won't hook up a pipeline to a single well without understanding how long it will flow and that requires delineation of a field with multiple wells.
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So maybe Wahoo will add a little faster value if it contains significant hydrocarbons - still years, maybe 3-5
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As for drilling additional wells
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IOC needs (quoting from memory) 40% down on an LNG plant with financing for the rest.
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They own 30% of the field and it will cost approx 15 billion to build the LNG plant
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This means IOC will need to pony up ~approx 2 billion in cash with the other 3 billion being financed.
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Depending upon how big the recert payment is, this doesn't leave us with much money to drill and run a company for 5 years with no income
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This is the reason I believe exploration drilling will be constrained by cash
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I think you may also need to rethink the cost of drilling some of these new wells - given the complexities encountered and in the case of Raptor, increased depth.
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Don't get me wrong - it is great that we have additional discoveries - I just don't think it will add value to the PPS until train 3/4 and that is 6-8 years out
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We will have to agree to disagree. Perhaps we could put down a wager of a beer - which we can pay up at the next AGM when either of us is proven correct.
And on a final side note - why has everyone been shitting on Ken lately. Everyone knows he is extremely optimistic - take his comments with a grain of salt. What people don't know is that he is probably the second, if not the most connected person I know regarding IOC. He shares the color that he encounters and much of it is point in time which could possible change or could be a variation of the truth. When you accept this, the information he shares helps to fill in the blanks and pass the time on this long ride called IOC.
Health and Happiness,
Hemi
p.s. That post was incredibly long and time consuming - back to hibernation for me. Someone wake me when reappraisal as a result of Ant 4 and 5 happens.
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'efi426hemi' pid='52039' datel Wrote:
'Thylacine-2' pid='52021' datel Wrote:Hemi, with all due respect, I believe at least some of the statements in your post are questionable. " When IOC farms out these discoveries, they won't do so until they fully understand the size (aka after at least 4 wells) so they don't go through the uncertainty of resource size they are currently dealing with in Antelope." I don't know of anything, Hession's statements regarding monetization of gas discoveries or anything else, to support this statement. Do you? "News of Ant Deep not being connected to Ant is not good news as we now will only be getting 100 mill for every Tcf in that discovery." That statement is based on poor understanding. We know that Antelope Deep is deeper than Antelope. If the two were in communication, Antelope Deep would be under water. There would be no gas to add to Antelope's at certification. But there is no "news of Ant Deep not being connected to Ant". There is a statement by Laurie Brown that he believes it probably isn't. (Pet came to a similar conclusion a long time ago.) We will have to drill Antelope Deep to be sure.
Thanx for you feedback Thy - my comments:
Your question in yellow regarding my comment about farm out deals - I asked this question twice at the AGM this year to Hession and Ford N.
-
Hession was his usual I will talk a lot without answering your question but you will feel good about yourself when I am done,
-
Ford however - specifically addressed this and reviewing my notes this is what he said with no hesitation:
-
“Why would we cap our upside?” He then followed up that it may make sense in the future, however IOC needed to do some significant exploration first.
-
I believe there will be additional farm out deals/SPAs with other PRL`s - it is the quickest way to expand - especially if our exploration continues to be successful
-
I have no link, paper clippings, audio file, etc - so use or flush
Your question in green regarding Ant Deep being under water - I disagree with your assessment:
-
Your assessement is based upon a simple geological model that infers a horizontal owc
-
Fair enough - that may be the case, however in the following brilliant post by Kaliboo (one which was in response to your request) there are a few interesting comments:
-
Link: http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/showthread.php?tid=6280&pid=42698#pid42698
-
Paragraph 2 - Kaliboo clearly defines that geological models can be very complex
-
Paragraph 4 - 1st sentence: From what I've read in the SPA (if memory is working) and elsewhere on IOC's site, it seems the term "in communication" is used very loosely.
-
Paragraph 5 - 5th sentence: They are concluding that simply because they are very similar, the wells are "in communication." They may be. It may even be highly probable.
-
Paragraph 7 - Kaliboo suggests that it is impossible without drilling to determine if communication is possible or not
-
SPA
-
Reading page 74 of the SPA says some interesting things
-
Elk Field - Any petroleum encountered in future well in the Elk Field or its lateral components this in pressure communication....
-
Ant Field - Any petroleum encountered in future well in the Ant Field or its lateral components this in pressure communication....
-
Lateral components infer a more complex field and perhaps Ant can't communicate with Ant Deep but maybe a lateral component could
-
I am no expert and this may not be a practical interpretation (Imight be speaking out of my ass) - however from Kaliboo's post, geological complexity offers a myriad of possiblities
-
Coincidence that doesn't prove anything
-
Why was page 74 added to the SPA - for Mule Deer only?
-
I don't think so, as I have never heard any exec talk excitedly about Mule Deer
-
IOC renames Big Horn to Antelope Deep
-
Executives begin making statements like "Why do you think we renamed it to Ant Deep?"
-
In summary - I don't believe your statement (Ant Deep under water if in communication) can hold any more weight than my understanding that the IOC exec believed it was in communication.
Art
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You state: It just seems so clearly evident to me that so long as there is a pipeline to an LNG facility a single well from anywhere near that pipeline has real value.
-
That is my point - there is no pipeline to a LNG facility and won't be for 5 years.
-
XOM won't hook up a pipeline to a single well without understanding how long it will flow and that requires delineation of a field with multiple wells.
-
So maybe Wahoo will add a little faster value if it contains significant hydrocarbons - still years, maybe 3-5
-
As for drilling additional wells
-
IOC needs (quoting from memory) 40% down on an LNG plant with financing for the rest.
-
They own 30% of the field and it will cost approx 15 billion to build the LNG plant
-
This means IOC will need to pony up ~approx 2 billion in cash with the other 3 billion being financed.
-
Depending upon how big the recert payment is, this doesn't leave us with much money to drill and run a company for 5 years with no income
-
This is the reason I believe exploration drilling will be constrained by cash
-
I think you may also need to rethink the cost of drilling some of these new wells - given the complexities encountered and in the case of Raptor, increased depth.
-
Don't get me wrong - it is great that we have additional discoveries - I just don't think it will add value to the PPS until train 3/4 and that is 6-8 years out
-
We will have to agree to disagree. Perhaps we could put down a wager of a beer - which we can pay up at the next AGM when either of us is proven correct.
And on a final side note - why has everyone been shitting on Ken lately. Everyone knows he is extremely optimistic - take his comments with a grain of salt. What people don't know is that he is probably the second, if not the most connected person I know regarding IOC. He shares the color that he encounters and much of it is point in time which could possible change or could be a variation of the truth. When you accept this, the information he shares helps to fill in the blanks and pass the time on this long ride called IOC.
Health and Happiness,
Hemi
p.s. That post was incredibly long and time consuming - back to hibernation for me. Someone wake me when reappraisal as a result of Ant 4 and 5 happens.
Efi, who do your feel is the #1 most connected person to IOC?
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