Links for 12/15

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The recent attack on Sony is the latest in a long series of data breaches at corporations in the U.S. by hackers seeking customer credit card numbers, user passwords, internal documents and emails. Here’s a tally of what hackers have made off with, and how the stock market reacted—or not—in the immediate aftermath.

A Quick Guide to the Worst Corporate Hack Attacks of 2014 - Business, Financial & Economic News, Stock Quotes

My other thought is that Venezuela-with-nukes (Russia) keeps looking more vulnerable to crisis. Long-term interest rates at almost 13 percent, a plunging currency, and a lot of private-sector institutions with large foreign-currency debts. You might imagine that large foreign exchange reserves would allow the government to bail out those in trouble, but the markets evidently don’t think so. This is starting to look very serious.

Petrothoughts - NYTimes.com

Opec's most influential producers are willing to allow oil prices to fall to $40 per barrel before discussing whether the cartel should hold an emergency meeting to discuss cutting output.

Opec willing to push oil price to $40 says Gulf oil minister - Telegraph

Dozens of new oil projects in the North Sea and Europe could be shelved as falling prices force international oil companies to tear up their investment plans. Global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie has said that 32 potential European oil field developments containing 4.9bn barrels of oil equivalent are waiting for approval on more than $87bn (£55bn) of funding. These could be at risk should oil prices fall below $60 per barrel.

Oil price crash means £55bn of projects face axe - Telegraph

The EU's mishandling of Greece has been calamitous. Investment has fallen by 63.5pc. Public debt has spiralled to 177pc of GDP, even after two sets of haircuts on private creditors. Unemployment has dropped slightly to 25.9pc, or 49.3pc for youth, but only because of a mass exodus, a brain-drain to the US, Canada, Australia, Germany, and the UK. The work force has shed over a million jobs, dropping to 3.5m... the Troika Memorandum, a text of economic vandalism that pushed Greece into seven years of depression, with a 25.9pc fall in GDP, longer and deeper than Europe's worst episodes in the 1930s.

Greek candidate willing to call European leaders’ bluff - Telegraph

Eurostat data show prices have fallen since April in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Holland, Belgium, Portugal, Greece and the Baltic states, as well as in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria outside the EMU bloc. Marchel Alexandrovich, from Jefferies, said the number of goods in the eurozone’s price basket now falling has reached a record 34pc. “Eurozone deflation is now inevitable. There is no way around it,” said Andrew Roberts, at RBS. “We think yields on German 10-year Bunds will fall to 0.42pc next year.” “The ECB is presiding over a deflationary disaster. They need to act fast and aggressively or else markets will start to attack Italian debt. Italy’s nominal GDP is falling faster than their borrowing costs and that is pushing them towards a debt spiral,” he added.

France drifts into deflation as ECB 'pea-shooter' falls short - Telegraph

SINCE the bubble burst in 1990, the Japanese have known only falling or stagnant prices for property. Yet a wave of commercial redevelopment in downtown Tokyo suggests a new mood. And as the chart from CLSA, a stockbroker, suggests, even the regions are pulling out of their long slump.

Japanese property: Waking from sleep | The Economist

In recent days, however, oil has traded closer to $60, and a fall to as low as $50 would lead the rouble lower still. Under such a scenario, Morgan Stanley estimates that inflation would increase by six to eight percentage points. Russia’s GDP would contract at an annual rate of 6% – a harsh slowdown following on from years of near stagnation. The Russian deficit may rise by five percentage points of GDP, but the prospect of a default remains remote. Key corporates may be more vulnerable. The spread between financials and sovereign debt widened to record highs last week, suggesting that investors believe they are at greater risk of failing.

What Will Happen To Russia's Economy - Business Insider

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ITALY has long suffered from inertia, its individual vitality smothered by the bureaucracy and opacity of the state. Italians are rich, prudent savers. Their state is poor, profligate and inefficient. For 30 years now, since I was a correspondent in Italy, I have watched the country deploy its ingenuity to evade modernization, culminating in the orgy of baroque escapism known as the Berlusconi years.

Trying to Reinvent Italy - NYTimes.com

There has been a long-term downward trend in labour’s share of national income, depressing both demand and inflation, and thus prompting ever more expansionary monetary policies. This column argues that, while understandable in a short-term business cycle context, this has exacerbated longer-term trends, increasing inequality and financial distortions. Perhaps the most fundamental problem has been over-reliance on debt finance. The authors propose policies to raise the share of equity finance in housing markets; such reforms could be extended to other sectors of the economy.

Monetary policy and long-term trends | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Japanese business confidence barely improved in the fourth quarter and is seen worsening, giving premier Shinzo Abe a grim reminder of the challenges he faces in reviving a recession-hit economy a day after his big win in Sunday's vote. While corporate capital spending was strong, the Bank of Japan's quarterly "tankan" survey on Monday also underscored prevailing doubts among businesses about Abe's strategy to spark durable economic growth.

BOJ survey shows Japan business mood fragile, highlights Abe's challenges - Yahoo Finance

Japan's exports are expected to have risen for the third straight month in November thanks to solid demand from the United States, an encouraging sign for shipments and the broader economy's recovery from a recession. Exports are forecast to have increased 7.0 percent in November from a year earlier, according to a Reuters poll of 24 economists, following a 9.6 percent gain in October and 6.9 percent rise in September.

Japan exports up for third month in November, boost to economic recovery - Yahoo Finance

Russia may be among the worst hit by the decline in oil prices, but analysts say clean living may keep government finances on an even keel. Its corporate debt may be another matter.

Are Russia’s bonds the next big worry?

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By taking the euro area stocks down 2.9 percent in the course of last Friday's trading, markets may be signaling that recessionary and stagnant economies have set the stage for unsettling political developments throughout the monetary union. There is no safe harbor left in that troubled region. Even Germany is moving toward the eye of the storm.

Time for bottom fishing in the euro area?

If you want to help cut greenhouse gas emissions, you should probably skip the hydrogen fuel cell cars now coming to market and buy a (much cheaper) hybrid instead.

Fuel Cell Vehicles Aren’t Yet Greener than Hybrids | MIT Technology Review

The battle over whether to start quantitative easing in the euro region is all but won, economists say. More than 90 percent of respondents in Bloomberg's monthly survey predict the European Central Bank will begin large-scale buying of government bonds next year, up from 57 percent last month.

Draghi’s Battle for Quantative Easing Almost Won as Economists Predict Action Next Year - Yahoo Finance

Mario Draghi has seven weeks to build consensus among policy makers on a stimulus package following a fractious end to 2014. After refraining from quantitative easing for the euro area in yesterday's Governing Council meeting, the European Central Bank president has pledged to "reassess" the situation early next year. The council expects to consider a proposal for broad-based asset purchases including sovereign debt at the next monetary-policy meeting on Jan. 22, said two euro-area central-bank officials familiar with the deliberations.

ECB Chief Goes Stumping for Stimulus Votes, a Trillion Euros on the Table - Yahoo Finance

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Russia's two oil revenue-funded sovereign wealth funds swelled by 353.3 billion rubles ($9.4 billion) last month to reach combined reserves of 6.54 trillion rubles ($177 billion), boosting the state's financial firepower as the West applies the economic screws on Russia over the Ukraine crisis.

Russia Funnels More Billions Into its Sovereign Wealth Funds | Business | The Moscow Times

Russia's Central Bank said Monday that it was likely the economy would contract in the first quarter of next year and perhaps by around 4.5 percent in 2015 as a whole if oil prices average $60 a barrel.

$60 Oil Would See Russia's Economy Shrink 4.5 Percent Next Year – Central Bank | Business | The Moscow Times

Moving closer to the European Union offers no panacea for Ukraine's financial problems and will mean big losses in economic ties with Moscow, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in an article published Monday. He said Moscow had for many years provided generous terms in deals with Kiev which had helped build up Ukraine's economy but the relationship would from now on be based on purely "rational and pragmatic" terms that put Russian interests first.

Moscow 'Tired' of Supporting Ukrainian Economy, Medvedev Says | Business | The Moscow Times

Eureka! I found the perfect security for this moment. The stock that can do it all for you. Either side, bull or bear! I am talking about Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold  (FCX) , the one-stop shop for all who want to play the current moment.

Jim Cramer: Eureka! I've Found the Perfect Stock for This Moment - TheStreet

With the US economy showing strong resilience and the US employment scenario also improving significantly, the US monetary base trend reversed for the first time in six years. From a peak of $4.1 trillion, the US monetary base has declined to $3.7 trillion as of December 2014.

Will The U.S. Monetary Base Continue To Contract? | Seeking Alpha

A former CIA spy has written a commentary for Politico in which she slams the agency for being dysfunctional and lying to the public about the war in Iraq.

The First The 3 Things A CIA Spy Learned About Iraq In 2003 - Business Insider

Russia’s central bank has taken drastic action to halt the rouble’s free fall on the foreign exchanges by raising interest rates by 6.5 percentage points to 17%. After a day of turmoil dominated by fears that a crashing global oil price would devastate Russia’s energy-dominated economy, an after-hours meeting of the central bank in Moscow decided emergency action was needed to prevent the rouble’s collapse.

Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17% to prevent rouble’s collapse | World news | The Guardian

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Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s election win strengthened his hand to move beyond the fiscal and monetary stimulus that brought an end to deflation in his first two years. The tougher task for Abenomics 2.0 will be to boost Japan’s growth potential.

Unlocking Japan Growth Potential Is Task for Abenomics 2.0 - Bloomberg

The damage to Putin has been enormous: Absent the MH-17 tragedy, and Putin's obstinate response to it, the European Union is unlikely to have achieved the unanimity needed to impose meaningful economic sanctions on Russia, less than two weeks later. But Russia hasn't backed down.

Putin's Top Gun Strategy Is Reckless - Bloomberg View

The people of this Papua New Guinean outpost had no say in the decision to build a detention centre here. But, as this exclusive investigation reveals, the arrival of refugees from around the world – and the industry that feeds off them – has brought both economic boom and devastating consequences

Welcome to Manus, the island that has been changed forever by Australian asylum-seeker policy | Australia news | The Guardian

A dynamic pricing model for NG is presented, based on the Hotelling (1934) approach for an exhaustible resource. The model uses available US consumption, production, storage and proved reserves data published by the EIA. NG Henry Hub monthly price moves are correlated well for 2013-2014. Our ad-hoc conclusion: NG prices are set to increase in the near term, quite appreciably.

Natural Gas: Predicting, Especially The Future | Seeking Alpha

Activity in China's factory sector shrank in December for the first time in seven months as new orders declined, a preliminary private survey showed on Tuesday, adding to expectations that more stimulus may be needed to avert a sharper economic slowdown.

China Dec flash PMI falls to 49.5, first contraction in 7 months - Yahoo Finance

We’ve been bullish on Japanese stocks for some months, and the LDP’s win only strengthens our case. Despite a run-up in price this fall, we think Japan remains a relative bargain in the developed markets.

Abe Election Victory And Japanese Stocks - Business Insider

It is a well-deserved ascendancy. He is brilliant, wide-ranging, readable, and the point of his rapier is very sharp. He correctly predicted and described the Long Slump; though whether he did so entirely for the right reasons is an interesting question. He demolished claims by hard-money totemists that zero rates and quantitative easing would lead to spiralling inflation in a global liquidity trap, as he calls it – or in a China-led world of excess supply and deficient demand, as others would put it. He correctly scolded those who claimed that rich developed countries with their own sovereign currencies are at risk of a bond market crisis unless they retrench into the downturn, or might go the way of Greece. So it is disconcerting to find myself on the wrong side of his biting critique. On other occasions I might submit to his Nobel authority, bruised, but wiser. This time I stand my ground.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Why Paul Krugman is wrong - Telegraph

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And like many bust-hardened veterans in this region -- which has made and broken the fortunes of thousands -- he’s talking about it like a gathering storm. The ups and downs of oil are a way of life in Midland and Odessa, Texas, dating all the way back to the Great Depression. It’s as much a part of the culture as Gulf Coast hurricanes, and residents often prepare accordingly.

Oil Storm Has Texas Wildcat Veterans Warning Bakken Rookies to Take Cover - Bloomberg

Scientists at the highly-respected University of Grenoble have published a report suggesting that regular consumption of chili peppers may raise levels of the hormone, which is believed to make men more adventurous, enterprising and sexually active.

Men who like spicier food are 'alpha males' with higher levels of testosterone, French report claims - Telegraph

OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut output even if oil prices fall as low as $40/bbl and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting, the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister said.

U.A.E. sees OPEC output unchanged even if oil drops to $40/bbl

U.S. producers battling OPEC for market share may increase output further from the highest rate in more than three decades as costs decline almost as fast as oil prices, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The slump in benchmark U.S. crude futures, which are down more than 40% this year, is driving producers to move rigs to lower-cost fields, the bank said in an emailed report on Dec. 15. While there’s evidence of some rebalancing starting to occur in the market, that isn’t sufficient, it said.

Goldman sees U.S. oil production steady as costs sink with price

The ruble continued its rout on Tuesday, after the Russian central bank’s surprise interest-rate rise to 17% failed to halt the steep slide in the currency. The ruble initially rallied after the rate-hike announcement early Tuesday. However, as worries grew that the increase wouldn’t be enough to end the pressure, the Russian currency fell back to trade around an all-time low against the dollar. In midday European trade, the dollar bought 73.0020 rubles, compared with 65.6020 late on Monday.

Ruble plunges to record low after rate hike fails to halt slide - MarketWatch

Mexico is getting ready to welcome the U.S. shale revolution into its borders after 75 years of state monopoly. The timing couldn’t be worse. As a flood of supplies from Texas to North Dakota sends oil into a nosedive, U.S. producers are reducing investment budgets for 2015. The cuts dim the chances they’ll take their fracing and horizontal drilling capabilities down south anytime soon.

Mexico shale boom outlook dims as U.S. drillers struggle at home

There isn’t much your central bank can do to engineer a sustainable Russian economic and financial recovery; instead, it falls to President Putin. Russia is caught in what economists call an unfavorable “multiple equilibria” – that is, instead of mean reverting, a bad outcome increases the probability of a worse outcome down the road.

El-Erian On Russia Central Bank Rate Hike - Business Insider

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German private-sector growth slowed to the weakest in 18 months in December, increasing the risk that a soft phase will turn into a more pronounced economic downturn.

German Economy at Risk of Downturn as Growth Seen Weak at Best - Yahoo Finance

German unemployment fell and the jobless rate reached a record low as businesses and investors become more confident that Europe’s largest economy will keep growing.

German Jobless Rate at Record Low as Confidence Improves - Bloomberg

The string of solid US economic news continued with industrial production advancing 1.3% in November. Year-over-year growth (5.2%) is now comparable to the late-90's: Meanwhile, the international fallout from the oil price drop continues. Russia is a classic emerging market crisis story. The decline in energy prices reveals a currency mismatch between assets and liabilities. The decline in oil dries up the dollars needed to support those liabilities, so the value of the ruble is bid down as market participants scramble for dollars. One suspects that capital flight from Russia only aggravates the problem; those oligarchs are seeing their fortunes whither.

IP, Russia - Tim Duy's Fed Watch

People don’t like it when banks default on their obligations, because lots of people use those obligations as money. Think of deposits, or commercial paper sold to money-market mutual funds. The problem is that, absent offsetting regulations, government guarantees preserve the value of these forms of money at the cost of transferring wealth to bankers and — to a much lesser extent — bank shareholders, while also encouraging excessive lending.

How to regulate banks: crazy like a fox | FT Alphaville

As Gavyn Davies writes, it’s true that there is a serious potential downside, but it is largely a geopolitical story about the destabilising impact on oil-exporting countries. For the developed world’s economies, the decline is overwhelmingly good news

The oddly subdued optimism about falling oil prices | FT Alphaville

With oil hovering around $57/barrel (for WTI) as of late Monday afternoon, now might be a good time for a quick look at the state of Canada’s enormous and expensive tar sands projects, and at the Keystone XL pipeline intended to help move what they produce. First have a look at this chart of production costs — for tar sands oil, at the far right, they are some of the highest in the world

How cheaper oil changes the calculus for Keystone XL | FT Alphaville

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Libya, the holder of Africa’s largest crude reserves, halted exports from two of its biggest oil ports as rival forces battled to control the nation’s main revenue source. National Oil Corp, the state-run oil company, declared force majeure at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, Libya’s largest and third-largest oil ports, with a combined capacity of 560,000 bpd. Force majeure is a legal status that protects a company from liability when it can’t fulfill a contract for reasons beyond its control.

Libya stops loading crude at two ports amid fighting for oil

Nigeria’s two oil unions began an indefinite strike that they say will curb exports from the West African nation responsible for pumping more than a quarter of the continent’s crude. “You will soon begin to see shutdowns of our oil flow,” Emmanuel Ojugbana, a spokesman of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, said by phone. Ohi Alegbe, an Abuja-based spokesman for the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. and the Oil Ministry, declined to comment on exports.

Nigeria’s oil unions start strike they say will curb exports

A lot of pundits have speculated that the price of oil collapsed because supply exceeds demand. As the Guinness beer commercials tell us, that is “brilliant!” Heck, I told folks in June oil prices were going to drop hard. So, while noticing supply and demand is a great Econ 101 observation, it doesn't answer the important question of why supply exceeds demand right now. We’ll delve into that in a moment, but perhaps an even bigger question is under what scenarios do we see a rebound in oil.

Three scenarios that result in a rebound for oil - MarketWatch

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn says high-yield corporate debt may be in bubble territory and that a recent hiccup in the market, as a result of plunging oil prices, support his suspicions. In an interview with Bloomberg published Monday, Icahn said high-yield bonds “are still at way too low an interest rate. In other words you can borrow money too cheaply if you’re a risky company.”

Carl Icahn says oil’s woes may be proof of a junk-bond bubble - MarketWatch

The real damage, however, is yet to come. By some estimates the wreckage, particularly for the oil-services companies, may add up to a stunning $1.6 trillion annual loss, at oil’s current $57 low, predicts Eric Lascelles, RBC Global Asset Management chief economist. Since it’s a zero-sum game, that translates into a big windfall for everyone else outside of oil players.

Crashing crude may blow a $1.6 trillion hole in the global oil sector, annually - MarketWatch

INVESTORS in emerging markets know how quickly things can turn sour. In the mid 1990s fast-growing Thailand and Indonesia became known as the “Asian Tigers”. By 1997 they were suffering currency crises and had to be bailed out by the IMF. Nearly 20 years on two members of the “BRICs” (Brazil, Russia, India and China) lionised for propping up global growth in 2010, are close to recession. The mixture Brazil and Russia face—falling currencies, high inflation and slow growth—could make 2015 a very bad year.

Emerging markets: The dodgiest duo in the suspect six | The Economist

For argument’s sake, let’s look first at the alleged $72 million and assume that he built that fortune in eight years. Here are the compound annual returns he’d need to reach that figure over that time period, using different assumptions about his starting capital

How well the 17-year-old would have had to trade to build that $72 million fortune - MarketWatch

Sweden’s central bank pledged to do what’s needed to jolt the largest Nordic economy out of a deflation funk blamed by some economists on premature rate increases after the financial crisis. Governor Stefan Ingves today vowed to keep the main rate at zero further into 2016 and said the bank was planning for all eventualities. The first option would be to further postpone rate increases, Ingves said today at a press conference. After that the bank is looking other measures including asset purchases, lending and negative rates with currency interventions as a last resort, he said.

Sweden Pledges Whatever It Takes as Crisis Policies Are Reversed - Bloomberg

"Raising rates up to 17% — that's the end of the banking system," an "emotional" senior manager of a mid-size bank told Vedomosti on Tuesday.

Russian Currency Crisis Rates Vedomosti - Business Insider

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Dubai's Financial Market General Index is now down 40% since the peak in oil prices in June this year. For now, only Qatar is clinging to gains year-to-date as the rest of the Middle Eastern equity markets give up 30-60% gains from mid-year and tumble to negative. Dubai and Abu Dhabi alone are down over 8% since Friday - the biggest drop in 6 years.

It's Not Just Russian Stocks: Middle East In Freefall, Plunge Most In 6 Years | Zero Hedge

A machine that administers sedatives recently began treating patients at a Seattle hospital. At a Silicon Valley hotel, a bellhop robot delivers items to people’s rooms. Last spring, a software algorithm wrote a breaking news article about an earthquake that The Los Angeles Times published.

As Robots Grow Smarter, American Workers Struggle to Keep Up - NYTimes.com

At every age, the chances of not working have changed in the last 15 years. Teenagers are far more likely not to work. Older people are retiring later and working more. In the ages in between — the periods of life when most people work — the changes have been smaller, but they are still substantial. In the late 1960s, almost all men between the ages of 25 and 54 went to work. Only about 5 out of every 100 did not have a job in any given week. By 2000, this figure had more than doubled, to 11 out of every 100 men. This year, it’s 16. (People in the military, prison and institutions are excluded from these figures.)

The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work, and What They Do Instead - NYTimes.com

The “revelation” comes from a study of 20 years of the Darwin Awards, an annual accolade which documents the most foolish ways people have died. The findings have been published in the Christmas edition of the British Medical Journal (BMJ) and show almost 90% of the awards have been ‘won’ by men.

It’s official! Men are more stupid than women, says British Medical Journal - BT

Bizarre ways in which males have died include one who stole a ride home by hitching a shopping trolley to the back of a train, only to be dragged two miles to his death before the train was able to stop. Another worthy candidate was a terrorist who posted a letter bomb with insufficient postage stamps and who, on its return, unthinkingly opened his own letter.

It’s official! Men are more stupid than women, says British Medical Journal - BT

Almost $1tn of spending on future oil projects is at risk after a brutal plunge in crude prices to nearly $60 a barrel, Goldman Sachs has warned.

Oil price fall threatens $1tn of projects - FT.com

Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer says Vladimir Putin's response to this escalating crisis is likely to be "geopolitical," which doesn't sound comforting.

What Will Happen Next... - Business Insider

Will there be cascading ripple effects like those that followed the Russian crisis in the late 1990s? Or, for that matter, the early stages of the global financial crisis seven years ago?

What Will Happen Next... - Business Insider

S uddenly the world is awash with oil. A surprise surge in production and weaker than expected global demand for crude have sent oil reserves soaring and prices tumbling. The 40 per cent drop in the oil price to around $60 a barrel since June is by far the biggest shock for the global economy this year. Similar episodes in the past tell us the consequences are likely to be both profound and long lasting. Normally, economists would add “positive” to this list, but doubts are surfacing as never before.

Winners and losers of oil price plunge - FT.com

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When Josh Birnbaum was at Goldman Sachs in 2007, he made a huge bet against subprime mortgages. Now he's betting against something else: high-yield bonds.

Joshua Birnbaum Bet Against High-Yield Energy - Business Insider

“In 2006,” said GTM Research Director MJ Shiao, “we could buy modules for close to $4 per watt. Today, we can install a residential system for the same price.”

It’s Solar Balance-of-System Innovation That Will Drive Cost Reduction : Greentech Media

HSBC has warned that Japan’s barely-disguised attempt to drive down the yen is becoming dangerous and may spin out of control, leading to an exchange rate crisis next year and a worldwide currency storm.

HSBC fears horrible end to Japan's QE blitz as Abe wins landslide - Telegraph

TopGolf originated in England, where a pair of golf-loving twin brothers sought a way to liven up driving-range sessions with some competition. They devised an array of targets that could read a microchip embedded in golf balls to score each player for accuracy and distance.

Topgolf could save golf, but not as we know it - Yahoo Finance

With ID fraud on the rise, the assumption is you'll lose money which can be claimed back. But Simon Bunce lost his job, and his father cut off contact, when he was arrested after an ID fraudster used his credit card details on a child porn website.

BBC News - 'I was falsely branded a paedophile'

Identity fraud occurs when personal information is used by someone else to obtain credit, goods or other services fraudulently. Recent surveys suggest that as many as one in four Britons have been affected by it.

BBC News - 'I was falsely branded a paedophile'

To my own surprise, what the model actually said was that when you’re at the zero lower bound, the size of the current money supply does not matter at all.

The Limits of Purely Monetary Policies - NYTimes.com

Lower oil prices are good for some countries, and bad for others. But there are a handful of oil-dependent economies where things could get especially ugly.

Energy prices and oil price crash: the good, the bad and the ugly