Links for 1/5/2015

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U.S. regulators have made only modest progress since the 2007-2009 financial crisis in addressing potential risks to the stability of the financial system, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said Saturday. “We’ve made some progress,” Mr. Rosengren said during a panel at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting in Boston. “I’d say the progress has been relatively modest, given the shock that we experienced.”

Boston Fed’s Rosengren Says Progress Since Financial Crisis ‘Relatively Modest’ - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Large and volatile capital flows into emerging economies since the Global Financial Crisis have re-invigorated efforts to unearth the determinants of these flows. This column investigates the interplay between global risk aversion (captured by the VIX) and countries’ characteristics. The authors also explore what policies countries should employ to protect themselves against the volatility of capital flows. The findings indicate that capital flows to emerging markets cannot be controlled without incurring substantial costs.

Capital flows, emerging markets and the global financial cycle | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Our results suggest that incremental capital account restrictions or ‘capital controls’ do not materially affect the force of the VIX in driving capital flows. This is consistent with the notion that for countries that have already liberalised their capital accounts, capital finds its way around these types of restrictions. Only in countries that are effectively fully closed do we find that the effect of the VIX is mitigated to a significant extent (Figure 4). This means that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless by collectively creating a fragmented global financial system.

Capital flows, emerging markets and the global financial cycle | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

German Chancellor Angela Merkel came under fire Sunday over a magazine report suggesting she would be prepared to let Greece exit the euro should a far-left party win a snap Greek election.

Merkel Is Under Fire - Business Insider

Still, markets' caution is fully justified. The destabilizing potential of Greek elections for the euro area should be taken seriously. They will have a significant impact on this year's elections in Spain and Portugal, and could also lead to the reshuffling of political decks in Italy, France and Germany.

euro area faces crisis

According to the United States Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) heavy duty and tractor trailer truck drivers made $38.2k per year in 2012 and 1.7 million worked in that job in 2012. BLS projects that from 2012 to 2022 the number of truck drivers will grow by 11%, about in pace with overall employment. I looked into these numbers curious to see if BLS is considering any impacts on employment due to the rise of autonomous vehicles. Short answer: No. Yet long haul trucking seems like an ideal first use of autonomous vehicle technology. Long haul trucks are expensive pieces of capital equipment with high rates of use. Autonomous operation could not only cut labor costs but also speed up deliveries since computer cores do not need to sleep. Plus, once the technology is mature autonomous operation will cut accident rates. This will both cut costs and save lives.

FuturePundit: Truck Drivers: How Many Will Lose Jobs To Automation?

We are witnessing a fundamental change in the relationship between labor and capital. In a nutshell: it used to be that engineers designed products that humans built using tooling that engineers designed. But in the era we are entering increasingly it is the case that engineers design products while other engineers design robots to build those products.

FuturePundit: Humans Having Hard Time Keeping Up With Robots?

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Richard Koo has a big hammer: it is the idea of the “balance sheet recession” — which happens when the indebted focus on paying down debt. But people with hammers tend to view everything as a nail. Here, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute shows the virtues, but also the limitations, of his intellectual tool.

A handy tool — but not the only one in the box - FT.com

Any effort by the European Central Bank to launch a massive quantitative easing programme this year would fail to revive the eurozone economy, according to economists polled in a Financial Times survey.

Economists sceptical ECB bond-buying would revive eurozone - FT.com

So if people with depression show classic sickness behaviour and sick people feel a lot like people with depression – might there be a common cause that accounts for both? The answer to that seems to be yes, and the best candidate so far is inflammation

Is depression a kind of allergic reaction? | Life and style | The Guardian

Forty-one million IQ points. That’s what Dr. David Bellinger determined Americans have collectively forfeited as a result of exposure to lead, mercury, and organophosphate pesticides.

These 12 Toxins Are Killing Brain Cells - Business Insider

Now Nvidia wants to move to mobile and is hoping hardcore gamers can take them there. Qualcomm is the lead supplier of mobile chips, and Nvidia has an uphill battle to try to supplant the Snapdragon line that runs most of the world's Android devices.

Nvidia aims new Tegra X1 'superchip' at smartphones - CNET

Imagine you could remove all the daily irritations from the city in which you live. No one pushing or talking loudly on the efficiently run public transport system; no rubbish or sticky gum to be trodden underfoot on the well-kept, clean streets. And virtually no crime. Such a city would, probably, resemble Singapore

The price of life in Singapore, city of rules: 'It’s a Faustian deal' | Cities | The Guardian

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For five years, she willingly succumbed each night to the wrath of tiny, bronze-bodied critters who fed on her blood. It was a sacrifice for science.

Chemical Mix Attracts And Kills Bedbugs - Business Insider

That supercomputer, the ASCI Red, was the first computer to reach one teraflop of processing power. It took up 1600 square feet and required over 500,000 watts to accomplish the feat. The Tegra X1 is the size of a thumbnail and is capable of reaching one teraflop of processing power with less than 10 watts.

Nvidia Launches Tegra X1 Superchip At CES - Business Insider

Koo had a big and important idea: he realized that Irving Fisher’s notion of debt deflation can explain persistent economic weakness even without literal deflation. As long as some part of the private sector has, for whatever reason, taken on levels of debt that now look excessive, the efforts of debtors to pay off their debts can act as a persistent drag on aggregate demand — one that is hard to counter with monetary policy, because many players in the economy can’t or won’t spend more no matter how cheap money becomes. Koo argues further that deficit spending can play a useful role in a balance sheet recession, not just by providing a temporary boost, but by providing a favorable environment for debtors to deleverage, setting the stage for durable recovery.

Not invented here syndrom NYTimes.com

A group of journalists and researchers wade into ugly corners of the Internet to expose racists, creeps, and hypocrites.

Meet the Dogged Researchers Who Try to Unmask Haters Online | MIT Technology Review

German Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared to embrace that point of view over the weekend, with a report in the magazine Spiegel suggesting that she believes a Greek exit is all but inevitable and that any fallout would be manageable. But it quickly became clear that hardly anyone—not even Merkel’s close allies—shares that view.

Why Europe Still Can't Afford a Greek Exit - Businessweek

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A decision by a new Greek government to leave the eurozone would set off devastating turmoil in financial markets even worse than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, a leading international economist warned Saturday.

Greek euro exit would be ‘Lehman Brothers squared’: economist - MarketWatch

And the question of whether Europe can handle another crisis in Greece is heightening financial uncertainty for the currency union just as it is struggling to grow and create jobs.

Europe May Not Be Ready For Another Greek Crisis - Business Insider

China is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects valued at 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) this year as policy makers seek to shore up growth that's in danger of slipping below 7 percent.

China Fast-Tracks $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur Growth - Yahoo Finance

The hope is to keep on shrinking to 1 nm by sometime around 2030.  But if the difficulties Intel ran into at 14 nm are any expectations, it could easily be 2040 or even 2050 before the limits of silicon lithography (~1 nm feature size) are reached.  Intel will likely then be forced to turn to novel transistor materials like switchable phosphorous, molybdenite, metallic nanocrystals, graphene, fullerene, quantum dots, and/or carbon nanotubes to extend things to an even tinier atomic scale.

DailyTech - Intel's Broadwell-Base Core i-Series SoCs Finally Hits the Market

A stockbroker has been sacked and forced to make a grovelling apology after tweeting: "Think I just hit a cyclist. But Im late for work so had to drive off lol."

Stockbroker sacked after tweeting: 'Think I just hit a cyclist. But I'm late for work so had to drive off lol' - Telegraph

In normal times, cheap energy would a “positive supply shock” akin to a tax cut. But these are not normal times, says Peter Praet, the ECB’s chief economist. He warns of a “very high risk” that a deflationary psychology will take hold, causing firms and households to delay spending. The lesson of the Thirties is that this ugly dynamic feeds on itself. Deflation makes it ever harder for borrowers to overcome their debts, pushing them further into the compound interest trap. For example, for southern Europe’s crisis states, the debt burden has risen, while nominal GDP remains flat, or has even shrunk. The more they slash spending to balance the books, the more the economy contracts. Italy’s debt ratio has spiked from 116 per cent of GDP to 133 per cent, despite austerity and meeting EU deficit rules.

Greece vs Europe: who will blink first? - Telegraph

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As matters stand, the ECB’s backstop plan for Italian and Spanish debt (OMT) cannot legally be activated. The German constitutional court has ruled that it “manifestly violates” the EU Treaties and is probably ultra vires, implying that the Bundesbank may not take part. The case was referred to the European Court (ECJ) as a courtesy. Its adjutant-general will issue an opinion on January 14 but this has no legal standing. The judges will not rule for months. When they do, they cannot safely ignore the prior findings of the irascible German court.

Greek expulsion from the euro would demolish EMU’s contagion firewall - Telegraph

The solar market, like oil, is finely balanced and relatively small disturbances can lead to significant price swings. With the backdrop of lower LNG prices in Asia and utilities, especially in Japan, fighting solar energy, the risks have increased for solar stocks. Longer term, the advancement of solar looks certain and solar stocks have already discounted considerable adversity. While demand might disappoint in 2015, the situation isn't nearly as dramatic as there is much less overcapacity compared to the last glut and capex has been moderate.

Can Utilities Sink The Solar Market? | Seeking Alpha

Gross argues that a rip-roaring market rally that has lasted for the better part of six years, boosted by ultra-loose monetary policy, may be undone by those same policies. He points to super-thin finance rates that have fostered cheap funding for corporations and resulted in razor-thin bond yields.

Bill Gross just called an end to the bull market, again - MarketWatch

Harold Hamm, chief executive of oil driller Continental Resources who is embroiled in a bitter divorce, offered to pay his former wife $974.8 million, but she rejected a hand-written check delivered to her legal team, his lawyer said on Tuesday.

Harold Hamm Sent His Ex-Wife A $975 Million Check; She Rejected It - Business Insider

After a more than seven-year mire, China stocks may finally be on the cusp of a long-term bull run, shrugging off an economic slowdown, analysts said.

Are China’s shares at the cusp of a bull run?

Borrowing to buy stocks, as measured by the NYSE monthly margin debt figures, ended 2014 at its highest level relative to the size of the U.S. economy since 1929. In absolute terms, it's the highest ever.

This chart is a ticking time bomb for stocks

Perusing the list of the biggest stock-market losers since the price of oil peaked in June yields some predictable results.

How the Bear Market in Crude Oil Has Polluted Non-Energy Stocks - Bloomberg

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Why did so many market pundits fail to foresee the decline in yields across the developed world in 2014? The short answer is that they were obsessed with the potential impact of the US Federal Reserve’s retreat from unconventional measures while neglecting the importance of global imbalances. In effect, the world has been prey to a growing problem of deficient demand, leading to disinflation, while the US has been growing too sedately to spark the inflationary pressures that would have called for much tighter monetary policy. There is a risk that forecasters will make the same mistake in 2015.

Deflation is a rising threat for markets - FT.com

In 2012 Barnes got rid of managers and ditched traditional departments at the 50-person company. Most teams, except for a few such as marketing and sales, organise around projects and all teams have responsibility for their budgets and revenues, which they present companywide each month. Rather than managers assigning priorities, employees put their tasks on a white board and team members decide what is important. “Managers do important work, but it doesn’t need to be centralised,” said Barnes.

BBC - Capital - Who's the boss? In some companies, it's nobody

Shiller, however, resists applying the B-word to bonds. “It doesn’t clearly fit my definition of ‘bubble,’” he says. “It doesn’t seem to be enthusiastic. It doesn’t seem to be built on expectations of rapid increases in bond prices.” (Shiller spoke with Money in December.) In the unlikely event you meet anyone at the proverbial cocktail party talking about bond funds, he’s probably complaining about the lousy yields, not talking about the killing he expects to make.

This Nobel Economist Spotted the Last Two Bubbles—Here’s What He Says About the Bond Boom | Money.com

Danny Lyon was famous for his work photographing the civil rights movement in the south and motorcycle gangs in Chicago.  When he returned to New York, his mother told him, if ever got bored, he should "just talk to someone on the subway.”

1966 NYC New Year's Danny Lyon Photos - Business Insider

The key benefit of the the slim bezels besides looking awesome is the Dell XPS 13 is effectively a 13-inch laptop in the body of an 11-inch laptop. It's very compact, which makes the battery life claim all the more impressive.

Hands-on: Dell XPS 13 2015 review | CES 2015

Three inextricably linked events will dominate the economic landscape in January: the preliminary opinion of the Advocate General of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on the legality of central bank bond purchases, due on January 14; the decision of the European Central Bank’s governing council on the size and type of “sovereign” quantitative easing (QE), due on January 22; and the Greek election on January 25.

A critical few weeks for the eurozone | Gavyn Davies

Beyond input, we've already experienced a taste of the other piece required for good consumer VR: an operating system that enables the acquisition and viewing of content (be it games or whatever else). That taste came in the form of Oculus Home -- the OS built into Gear VR that Mitchell says is, "designed to be portable." He doesn't mean "portable" like the mobile-powered Gear VR, but "port-able" as in "can be easily moved from one platform to another." As in, "Can be easily moved from Gear VR to Oculus Rift and anywhere else."

The challenges ahead for Oculus VR as it creates the consumer Rift

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Forget nukes and battleships. Washington may increasingly flex its geopolitical muscle in 2015 using an unconventional weapon: finance.

Weaponization Of Finance Eurasia Group - Business Insider

"There are no signs that the benefits of Abenomics are trickling down to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs)," said Osamu Naito, a bankruptcy analyst at credit research firm Teikoku Databank. "If anything, the yen's latest weakening is the last straw for many struggling small and medium-sized businesses."

Weak yen last straw for small Japanese firms

"It's misleading to focus on the rising numbers of bankruptcies caused by the weaker yen when, overall, the number of companies going out of business has been falling," said Masahiko Hashimoto, economist at Daiwa Institute of Research.

Weak yen last straw for small Japanese firms

Being more bearish on the euro than the consensus helped ING Groep NV become the world’s most accurate currency forecaster in 2014. The Dutch bank sees no reason to change its strategy now, breaking from the pack to predict a drop to parity with the dollar within two years.

World’s Best Forecaster Targets Euro-Dollar Parity: Currencies - Bloomberg

There's an hour-long line to get into a booth in the South Hall of this year's Consumer Electronics Show, and for good reason. Oculus, which Facebook bought in March for $2 billion, was demonstrating its latest virtual reality prototype headset, dubbed Crescent Bay.

I Put on the New Oculus Rift Headset. This Is What I Saw - Businessweek

All that is mostly posturing for an electorate tired of the aid and angst Greece has demanded since 2010. In fact, Germany has no interest in risking the dissolution of the single currency that a Grexit could entail.

Don’t Believe the Hype: Why Germany Needs Greece to Stay in Euro - Bloomberg

For all the advances robots have made in industrial and commercial spaces, consumer robotic technology seems to be lagging. Many of the robots on display at the Consumer Electronics Show this year were wonky attempts to either a) make toys, b) put touchscreens on pedestals and wheels, or c) build machines that can move around but do little else.

Our Awesome Robot Future: Still the Future, Not Yet Awesome - Businessweek

If you have a crush on your dentist, you might be barking up the wrong tree: 81 percent of dentists are already married—the highest marriage rate for any profession. Someone’s chosen occupation, it turns out, can tell you a lot about the chances they’re single, married, divorced, or in some other relationship arrangement.

Don't Take These Jobs If You Want to Get Married - Businessweek

The solution is not a better password but something else entirely. At this year’s Consumer Electronics Show, several companies are betting that the something else is you. Remember: We are all snowflakes, each carrying characteristics that are unique, and those unique characteristics can be harnessed through biometrics to ensure secure access to things we want protected.

Your Next Password Is Unhackable, Unforgettable, and Not Even a Password at All - Businessweek

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Der Spiegel recently reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel viewed Greece’s exiting the euro as a manageable risk that would present no existential crisis for the common currency. That opinion, if she indeed holds it, is misguided at best and dangerous at worst.

The Risks of a Greece-Euro Divorce - Businessweek

Aside from drones, wearables, and connected pet feeders, one of the coolest things I saw this week at the annual International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was a video promo related to the recently released movie “Wild,” which is based on Cheryl Strayed’s solitary hike on the Pacific Crest Trail. What made the few minutes of video so neat was that I was watching it in virtual reality on a Gear VR headset–a device created by Oculus VR and Samsung that allowed me to feel like I was watching the drama unfold from within the center of movie itself.

The Coolest Thing I Saw at CES? A Movie Clip. | MIT Technology Review

The European Central Bank (ECB) has discussed a 500-billion-euro ($593 billion) quantitative easing program, a source at the central bank told CNBC. No decision has been taken, but the program would involve purchasing countries' investment-grade-rated sovereign debt—bonds with a rating of BBB-/Baa3 or higher.

ECB has discussed $593B QE program: Source

The planet still holds vast reserves of fossil fuel that could be extracted economically. However, according to a new analysis, a third of the world’s oil, half of its gas, and 80 percent of its coal reserves must remain unused if we are to have a good chance of avoiding potentially devastating climate change.

Study Sets a Limit on Usable Fossil Fuel | MIT Technology Review

Perpetually striving to find the bigger, better, more shiny version of what you already have isn’t, of course, new. In the 70s it was known by psychologists as being on the “hedonic treadmill”, a compulsion to constantly strive forward which never ultimately achieves anything but the same basic version of what you had before... Research published this week in the Social Psychological and Personality Science journal suggests that those who spend time reflecting on a messy breakup rather than dusting themselves off and climbing right back on the proverbial horse are more likely to recover properly.

Breaking news for the broken-hearted – wallowing is good for you | Holly Baxter | Comment is free | theguardian.com

With the 8K 2D content Samsung’s 110-inch screen was mind-blowingly good. The shots of towns, buildings, concert halls and other easy-on-the-eye, highly detailed sources all looked nothing short of incredible, leaving no technological ‘wall’ whatsoever between you and what you were looking at.

Samsung 110-inch 8K SUHD TV hands-on | CES 2015

The reason Sharp is trying to claim a 4K TV can actually deliver 8K-like pictures is its Quattron+ technology. First introduced at last year’s CES as a way of getting a 4K-like resolution from a 2K native pixel count, Quattron+ essentially splits each of a screen’s four (red, green, blue and additional yellow) sub-pixels in half horizontally, doubling the perceived horizontal resolution.

Sharp Quattron+ Beyond 4K TV hands-on | CES 2015

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Vestberg shared his vision of 5G, a network that will not only be significantly faster, but much smarter. It's that network intelligence that will better manage the burgeoning trend of the Internet of Things, or the concept that every object can connect to the Internet and talk to each other. Vestberg said he believes this idea can change lives for the better.

Forget 4G. Here's what 5G wireless tech will look like - CNET

Malicious software infections, also known as malware, are keeping computer repair specialists like Jaljaa busy, thanks in no small part to an exponential rise in the types of malware infecting computers. Malware detections by antivirus software testing company AV-Test spiked in 2014 to more than 143 million, up 72 percent from last year according to a new report released on Thursday.

Today's computers face more attacks than ever - CNET

Now, there is even a volatility index for the S&P 500 Volatility Index. The VVIX, according to its publisher, the CBOE, “is an indicator of the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the VIX”. Lately, the VVIX has been exhibiting some interesting behavior. Typically (i.e., 90% of the time), the VVIX ranges between 60-100. In the past few days, the 21-day average (approximately 1 month) of the VVIX reached a level of 110. Since the inception of the VVIX in 2007, this is just the 5th time its 21-day moving average has gotten that high. The other 4 occurred during times of legitimate — or pending — market turmoil.

Why Is VIX Volatility At Crisis Levels? | Dana Lyons' Tumblr

There was no precedent for how to deal with a hacking attack on the scale of that which hit Sony Pictures, its chief executive has said.

BBC News - Sony boss: 'No playbook' for dealing with hack attack

This combination of unhealthy ingredients and not moving (followed almost immediately by sleeping) is a recipe for weight gain and indigestion. When it becomes regular practice, heavy late-night noshing can also contribute to more serious conditions like acid reflux.

This Is The Worst Meal Of The Day - Business Insider

In recent years, the evening meal has gradually transformed into the Western world's biggest and fattiest tradition. Portion sizes have ballooned, having increased up to 700% in some foods, and most of our meals are based around processed carbs and high-fat meats and cheeses. Take two of America's most popular family dinners: pizza and pasta. The most popular versions of each (cheese pizza, spaghetti and meatballs, and lasagna) are high in fat and carbs (bad news for your heart and waistline) and virtually free of fresh fruits and veggies (bad for your skin, nails and hair, and worse for your digestion).

This Is The Worst Meal Of The Day - Business Insider

We already know that exercising improves health, sleep, mood, and more. But in this latest study, published in The Journal of Physiology, researchers wanted to see how exercise affected aging

Exercising Helps Prevent Aging - Business Insider

The pod may look like the bizarre synthetic egg that hatched Lady Gaga at this year's Video Music Awards, but the CVAC is being taken seriously by a number of professional athletes looking for the next big thing in performance enhancement, including Olympic cyclist John Howard and martial artist Rampage Jackson. CVAC, short for Cyclic Variations in Adaptive Conditioning, simulates rapid changes in altitude, which reportedly stimulates the body on a cellular level, increasing oxygen absorption, promoting muscle recovery, and boosting the lymphatic system.

Novak Djokovic Says Pressurized CVAC Space Egg Helped him Climb to #1 in Tennis - ABC News