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Pavel and Moving Needles
#1
Apparently Pavel appreciates looming cash-flows as he re-ups Chevron as a strong-buy with the note of the coming Gorgon CFs.
...“Today we take the opportunity to quantify the economic value of Gorgon,” Molchanev said in a note to clients. “Put simply: with Gorgon’s startup about two years away, we think investors should be aware of just how big a deal it will be for earnings and cash flow.”...

If Gorgon moves Chevron's needle does Pavel think Gulf LNG will move IOC's needle too??? Gorgon Project joint venture partners are Chevron (47% and operator), ExxonMobil (25%), Shell (25%) as well as gas buyers Osaka Gas (1.25%), Tokyo Gas (1.0%) and Chubu Electric Power (0.417%).
Here's an idea, since the SM's work well together how about a generous stock swap for whole IOC and we can enjoy needles moving the pps of our new SM holding as Gorgon starts-up as well as all IOC's assets are brought online? Gee, wonder if Phil and the bigs could live off RDS divis and enjoy avoiding the capital gains of a cash deal.


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Chevron LNG positioned to fill gap from Japan’s shutdown of nukes
May 7, 2012, 1:53 PM
Raymond James energy analyst Pavel Molchanov noted that Japan no longer has any operating nuclear reactors in May, as the country retools is power sources in reaction to radiation leaks at the tsunami-stricken Fukushima Daiichi plant last year.

Molchanev reiterated his strong buy on Chevron CVX -0.62% and said the oil major’s multi-billion dollar Gorgon liquid natural gas (LNG) project off the coast of western Australia will be “directly connected” to the Japanese market when it opens in about two years.

Three of Japan’s top utilities are already equity partners in Gorgon.

“Today we take the opportunity to quantify the economic value of Gorgon,” Molchanev said in a note to clients. “Put simply: with Gorgon’s startup about two years away, we think investors should be aware of just how big a deal it will be for earnings and cash flow.”

With capacity of 15 million tons of LNG per year, Gorgon could generate about $4.9 billion per year in revenue for Chevron. That’s enough to move the needle even at a company the size of Chevron.

Japan, which is the third-largest economy in the world, is becoming more dependent on oil and LNG imports than it has been. That’ll likely create more demand for LNG from the U.S., where energy companies such as Cheniere and Dominion are planning to build export facilities for domestic shale gas. Producing LNG in western Australia could provide a nice geographical advantage for Chevron’s energy sales to Japan and all of Asia, however.
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#2
I think when Pavel sees that IOC is 2 years from startup, he will issue a like statement on IOC. So far, he has been the most accurate in warning of timeline pushouts and risk to temper expectations. When I first purchased IOC in 2007, we were going to have a stick built plant starting production THIS YEAR.
L Ron Rules!
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#3
Nice pic croozer! Hope IOC's risky bidness pays off before much longer. Good close today and with the CC next Monday before the markets open some nice news could blow the briefs off of the shorts!
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#4
ps. I'm all for a 2 shares for 1 with XOM
L Ron Rules!
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