A Theory on why IOC broke radio silence

[davidhmtk]

My guess is that Chandler's portfolio was under margin pressure (as others have reported here) and he wanted it on record that A4 had been successful, so there would not be panic when he sold.   It does suggest that he had results from A4 before I did, but, really, I knew that already.  Ties together the PR and the selling.

[Putncalls]

I think that the 1911 number was irrefutable and risk free for MH.

[Stavros]

What radio silence are you referring to David? The Macquarie Presentation (and associated PR) was planned well in advance. You can't expect IOC to show potential investors pictures of Polar Bears frolicking in a snow storm ... a white screen is not informative.

RC bought into Sberbank in 2009 ($430 million for 3% of the Bank) and made other forays into Russia as well.
He made a lot of paper profits along the way.

It's very likely that he mis-timed those Russian investments and didn't get out. He's now caught with those investments and cannot sell to anyone (would you now buy 3% of Sberbank???)
He also got caught by the energy price debacle without hedges in place on IOC or any other energy sector holding.

I suspect he decided in early December to get cash out of anything liquid; IOC is one of his holdings that are liquid.
His holding in EWC are NOT liquid ... see Mr Bonk's comments elsewhere!

OSH (a well run company managed by shrewd folks) paid $900 million for 22% of PRL 15.
Botten knows he underpaid and he's very happy with the deal he made.
So by analogy, the 38% of PRL 15 that IOC retained has a value of $1.55 Billion
The 40% IOC sold to TOTAL will bring $2 Billion in cash payments into IOC's coffers
IOC has new gas discoveries in Raptor, Bobcat and most likely Wahoo.
Ant-4 was successful in showing that the field is bigger than GCA gave credit for

IOC's Market Cap is now $1.3 Billion.
Clearly IOC stock is outrageously undervalued due to many factors including Chandler's actions.
The market is not able to absorb millions of IOC shares without a precipitous fall in PPS

We have to suffer until RC is done selling and until oil prices stabilize (they haven't yet despite the rise today)
Hopefully RC is done selling (after seemingly dumping more today) but time will tell.

I'm under water big time but I have scuba gear
I hope my air tank doesn't get empty