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Earnings from deals
#1

In 2014 Interoil booked the $401 million Total payment as earnings .

Thus in 2015 we can expect the Total certification payment to be booked as earnings

Antelope Deep will require 2-3 wells to determine the T's down below . That could be a 2016 payment

Then we have Raptor Bobcat Wahoo and triceratops which all can have seperate or aggregate sell downs generating earnings in 2016/ 2017 .

If any of those is successful enough could in 2017/18 generate a deal for an add on to Antelope LNG or sale to another LNG wanta be bigger player on PNG

These  are bridges to cash flow from Antelope LNG . Mr Msrket likes earnings and cash flow .

Called Financial Engineering and my guesses above are just that guesses but they certainly fit with the companies stated strategy to find gas , monetize it and find more gas . Etc.

Just a thought to bridge into March news of Arb winner and new reservoir reports and more disclosure about Ant 4 and 5 .

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#2

JFT, Note 6 to the September 30, 2014 financials showed that they used more than just the $401 million in calculating their Gain on Conveyance from the closing of the Total deal.  They assumed the 7.1Ts from GCA and also included $594 million and calculated the PV fo the expected cashflow.  They ended up with a $340.5 million gain on conveyance from this calculation and that was reflected in the Income statement at Sept 30.  Here is the disclosure from Note 6:

The conveyance accounting for the Total SSA has been accounted for in the nine months ended September 30, 2014. The following table presents the cash flows and the resulting gain on conveyance that has been recorded for the nine

months ended September 30, 2014.

Nine months ended September 30, 2014

Conveyance proceeds received 401,338,497

Conveyance proceeds receivable 593,887,729

Total                                              995,226,226

Discounted value of cash f low s 953,231,438

Less allocation against oil and gas properties in the balance sheet (611,939,426)

Less discounted value of cash f low s payable to IPI partners (752,001)

Gain on conveyance for the period 340,540,011

Conveyance accounting (excluding FID and cargo payments, and appraisal carry on wells within PRL 15) based on Gaffney Cline certified best case scenario of 7.10 Tcfe

No cash flows relating to final investment decision or subsequent first LNG cargo payments relating to the Elk and Antelope fields have been included within the cash flows calculation above. The discounted value of cash flows has been

calculated using a discount rate of 8.23%. In deriving the discount rate, management has used the risk free rate on US treasury securities and added a risk premium on lending for PNG.

On March 26, 2014, the Company also completed the acquisition from IPI holders of an additional 1.0536% participating interest in PRL 15 for consideration of $41.53 million satisfied by the issuance of 688,654 common shares of the

Company, plus additional variable resource payments if interim or final resource certifications exceeds 7.0 Tcfe under the Total SSA. Accordingly, the gain on conveyance for the Total transaction has been reduced by the discounted value of

cash flows that would be payable to the IPI holders assuming a resource estimate of 7.10 Tcfe.

At each following reporting period, the discount rate and the timing of expected cash flows will be assessed to take into account any changes to the underlying risk factors used in the calculation along with changes to resource estimates,

which will result in adjustments to the gain on conveyance.

Resource estimate used:

The cash flows listed above have been calculated using the best case scenario provided by Gaffney Cline & Associates “GCA” of 7.10 Tcfe for the Elk and Antelope fields. GCA is a recognized certifier under the Total SSA. The interim

resource certification under the Total SSA will vary post the completion of up to three appraisal wells that will be drilled within Elk and Antelope fields prior to the certification.

The above calculation also does not take into account any potential discovery bonus payable by Total to InterOil in the event that the required exploration well to be drilled within the area covered by PRL 15, but outside the Elk and Antelope

fields, is successful in identifying hydrocarbons. When future resource estimates are received, the discounted cash flow analysis will be updated accordingly. The entries to reflect the change would be to increase or decrease the financial asset based on the updated NPV calculation, reduce any carried forward cost base on the balance sheet to zero, and the remaining balance will be recognized as profit and loss."

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#3

Thanks for the add ..you B correct!

But  The world including Bonk of yahoo see the GCA numbers that 7.1 T's as low based on Ant 4 he mentions . Add in Laurie Brown's Dec 3rd slide 11 where Laurie states clearly that both GCA and GLJ are using the lower seismic picture and now will use the upper seismic view again bodes well for higher estimates .

Add in who the heck will pay for GCA year end 2014.. ????Not IOC . Not OSH . Maybe Total ???

What impact will Ant 5 and additional pressure interconnectivity tests add to the 2015 payment and size estimates, ?

The impact of this last half of 2015 payment therefore is not fully reflected in what's been booked so far and "many believe

the payment will be in the $2 billion range". If these peeps are right add an additional $1.4 Billion in earnings and cash in 2015 .

Yes that moves the needle . As do the other future payments I mentioned.

This financial engineering can be quite impactful in dampening the volatility of the PPS.

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#4
I feel sure the only updated resource estimates for year end 2014 will be from GLJ, which is fine with me.
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#5
Getit- The Australian exchanges have the same reservoir estimate requirement that the SEC mandates . Therefore we have a closed sale to OSH and they OSH will be required to measure with Netherland Sewell their E/A estimator their assets . As of year end 2014.
We also have a closed sale to Total and the European exchanges have the same requirements as the SEC . So yes we will see an E/A estimate from Total . Understand Total trades in the U.S. also and must follow SEC mandates . As of year end 2014 .
Not sure?. Just look at OSH and TOT year end report from 2013 .. They report reserves every year.
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#6
JFT, I was thinking about estimates for IOC's annual financial statements, but I would say you are probably correct. I don't guess OSH and Total could reference estimates from elsewhere, i.e. the resource operator's statements/filings, something I have not researched. This could really get interesting, but seems like a lot of repetitive work and expense.
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#7
Each company must chose a reservoir engineer . Lots to chose from . Only the top 5 are lendable .
GCA and Netherland Sewell are lendable and GLJ is not . Raising GCA is thus the goal , they wanted 2 more wells with tests and thats what they are getting to get to GLJ numbers . The low baller in the industry is GCA . Banks love em not so much the producers.
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