Oil Search Ltd.: 2014 result Preview
Stuart Baker – Morgan Stanley
February 23, 2015 4:06 AM GMT
OSH will report FY2014 results on Tuesday, February 24 to be followed by a tele-conference at 11.00 AEDT
Our expectations are documented here.
1. We expect underlying NPAT of US$442m (EPS: US$0.31) up 110% compared to 2013 reflecting LNG volume growth and an average oil price realized of US$98/bbl. We expect pre-tax impairments of US$150m as previously guided. Final DPS of US$0.07 for a FY total of US$0.09cps.
2. Production guidance range 26-28 mboe to be updated. Our estimate is 27.3 mboe.
3. Capex and opex for 2015 TBA. We expect discretionary capex to fall, and unit oepx lower than 2014 due to higher production and industry deflation.
5. Reserves and resources statement should show material increases in 2C resources due to those acquired at Elk/Antelope. Revisions to Hides 1P and 2P gas resources are anticipated at some point, given new information from drilling and production. Hides development wells have been drilled and the Hides “water” well completed.
We anticipate commentary on: (1) LNG plant operational performance and de-bottlenecking outcomes; (2) time-line around Elk/Antelope, from reserves assessment through to design phase, FEED marketing and future start-up, and strategies for development as a function of reserve outcomes; (3) latest assessment of pathway to a PNG LNG 3rd train.