Links for 3/16

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Further positive news has come from the European banking sector. Since 2008 banks have focused more on strengthening their balance-sheets than on lending to companies. This credit squeeze was bad for growth. But things have been picking up. The broad measure of money supply (M3) grew by 4.1% in the year to January; 12 months earlier, the annual growth rate was just 1.2%. M1, a narrower measure, bears out the trend: its growth has jumped from 6.2% to 9% over the same period. Large companies have also been able to take advantage of very low yields in Europe’s bond markets. The ECB has played a role here too: investors have anticipated the launch of QE by driving government-bond yields sharply lower.

Buttonwood: Mario’s miracle? | The Economist

The golden football region - Germany, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania - increased its share of intra-EU trade by a total of 5.3 percentage points between 2004 and 2013, the latest year for which final data is published. The biggest gains accrued to Germany with 2.2 percentage points.

No more Blue Banana, Europe's industrial heart moves east - Yahoo Finance

For instance, if an investor stayed fully invested in the S&P 500 from 1995 through 2014, they would've had a 9.85% annualized return. However, if trading resulted in them missing just the ten best days during that same period, then those annualized returns would collapse to 6.1%. Missing these days do so much damage because those missed gains aren't able to compound during the rest of the investment holding period.

Cost Of Missing 10 Best Days In S&P 500 - Business Insider

Back in the 1980s, the billions of dollars that the Japanese plowed into U.S. government debt reflected the Asian nation’s burgeoning economic might. Now, they’re at it again, only this time it’s to eke out any return they can.

Beware the $300 Billion Shift Into Treasuries Coming From Japan - Bloomberg Business

We ... update our forecast to 1.02, 1.00 and 0.95 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.12, 1.10 and 1.08 previously), as well as 0.85 and 0.80 at end­ 2016 and end­ 2017 (from 1.00 and 0.90), respectively. We therefore expect more downside in the near term, with the expected removal of "patient" at next week’s FOMC a key catalyst. In the longer term, we continue to believe that EUR/$ will significantly undershoot our GSDEER measure of fair value (around 1.20), reflecting diverging growth and monetary policy outlooks.

Goldman Sachs euro parity forecast - Business Insider

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Today, Verica Lazova and Lasko Basnarkov at Cyril and Methodius University in Macedonia have found another use for the Pagerank algorithm. These guys have used it to create an all-time ranking of the world’s national football teams using results from the 20 World Cup tournaments that have taken place since 1930. Their assumption is that a team should ranked highly if it has beaten other highly ranked teams.

Pagerank Algorithm Reveals World's All-Time Top Soccer Team | MIT Technology Review

Six years into the U.S. expansion, the link between falling unemployment and rising wages -- once almost as basic to economic theory as supply and demand -- seems to be coming unhinged.

If Economists Were Right, You Would Have a Raise by Now - Bloomberg Business

The closest analogy to Spain’s experience is Nevada, which also had a massive building boom followed by a devastating bust. About 43 per cent of the jobs lost in Nevada during its downturn were construction jobs, compared to 48 per cent for Spain. Between the peak in March, 2007, and the trough in March, 2010, total employment in Nevada fell by 14 per cent, compared to an 18 per cent peak-to-trough decline in Spanish employment.

Explaining the pain in Spain | FT Alphaville

Coca-Cola may be fun to drink, but is it healthy? Despite warnings linking sugary drinks to illness, several nutrition and fitness experts suggested last month that it's OK to down a mini-can of Coke or other soda. These experts also work with and may be paid by Coca-Cola, the AP reports. "We have a network of dietitians we work with," says a Coca-Cola spokesman. "Every big brand works with bloggers or has paid talent."

Coke, a Healthy Drink? Experts Working With Coke Say Yes

Cramer says that he owns Apple because it's cheaper than the average stock and has fabulous growth statistics, a good balance sheet and a decent dividend. Its earnings-per-share ratio still trades at a discount in comparison to other stocks of the S&P 500.

Forget about the watch! Cramer's approach to Apple

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The six-year bull market for U.S. stocks is vulnerable to a sharp decline as Europe’s monetary authorities begin an economic stimulus program that will threaten U.S. company earnings and possibly derail the country’s recovery, a Wall Street strategist said. “Dollar strength is crushing U.S. profits,” Albert Edwards, global strategist at Societe Generale, said. “And in a situation where we already have an incredibly long U.S. bull market, an ugly end surely waits.”

SocGen's Edwards: Draghi Makes Greenspan Look Like 'Rank Amateur'

And now so-called 'robo investors' - algorithm-based systems that manage investments on our behalf - are soaring in popularity with the public. A key advantage to automated funds is that they bypass human emotions like fear and greed, which often lead to poor investment decisions. However, a new wave of tech start-ups say they can redress the balance - by helping fund managers overcome their deepest cognitive biases.

BBC News - The tech helping investors ignore their emotions

In December 2014, nearly 11 million people received Disability Insurance from Social Security, with an average benefit of roughly $1,000 per month. While the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, the portion of Social Security that most people think of as their retirement benefits, is not set to run out of money in the trust until 2033, the Disability Insurance Trust will run out in 2016 if nothing is changed. This shortfall would result in a nearly 20% cut to benefits, reducing those $1,000 checks down to $800 a month.

Social Security Could Be In Worse Shape Than We Thought - Forbes

Apple is in talks to launch an online TV service, the Wall Street Journal reported late Monday, citing sources familiar with the matter. The tech giant is working with programmers to offer a bundled service of about 25 channels anchored by broadcasters like ABC, CBS and Fox, on devices such as Apple TV.

Apple in talks to launch online TV service: Report - Yahoo Finance

They’ve conducted fresh analyses of over 50 years of U.S. stock market data, and over 30 years of data for overseas stock markets, and they’ve reached a startlingly simple conclusion. If you had wanted to beat pretty much any stock market over time, at any point, all you had to do was buy the stocks of companies that were both small and “high quality” when measured by things like balance-sheet strength, profitability, stability and growth.

If you want to make big bucks, go small - MarketWatch

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Japan’s public pension funds, which include the world’s biggest, accelerated their push to dump local bonds and invest the money abroad to a record pace.

Japan Pensions Sell Record $46 Billion Bonds to Buy Stocks - Bloomberg Business

There's little doubt a sharp fall in the single currency could lift the euro zone growth outlook, but the impact is far from clear cut, analysts say. The euro has shed almost 25 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar in the past year to trade around $1.06. On a trade-weighted basis, the decline is smaller, at around 13 percent, but is still seen viewed by economists as a sizeable fall.

Weak euro, booming euro zone economy? Not quite

As it turns out, some older people may be able to learn certain things just as well as younger people by harnessing the power of a part of the brain that young, healthy people typically don't use in the same way.

Why Some People Stay Sharp Into Old Age - Business Insider

D. A. Davidson‘s Thomas Diffely today gave a broad update on wireless chip stocks, reiterating a Buy rating on shares of Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), amd raising shares of both Qorvo (QRVO) and Avago Technologies (AVGO) to Buy from Neutral.

Skyworks, Avago, Qorvo: Buy Them All as LTE Increases, Says Davidson - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

According to a shocking new report from the Educational Testing Service, Americans between the ages of 20 and 34 are way behind young adults in other industrialized nations when it comes to literacy, mathematics and technological proficiency.

It's Official: Americans R Stoopid | Zero Hedge

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The $94,000-per-patient cost threatened to blow a massive hole in the state’s budget just as the governor at the time, Pat Quinn (D), and the legislature were struggling with a major deficit and with pension program shortfalls. Express Scripts estimated the new drug could make spending on Hepatitis C treatment jump to nearly 9 percent of the state’s Medicaid budget.

The Life-Saving Drug That Almost No State Can Afford - Yahoo Finance

The Shanghai Composite Index steamed past the post-Great Financial Crisis high of 3,478 this week, closing at 3,670 on Tuesday. We can see further upside. By year-end, the Shanghai index would hit 4,000 and could reach 4,800, or another 30% upside, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Jonathan F Garner and team.

Shanghai Bulls Rejoice: Morgan Stanley Sees Another 30% Upside - Asia Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan governor, said he could not rule out a spell of deflation later this year, as a plunge in oil prices hampers his push for 2 per cent inflation.

BoJ inflation promise comes unstuck - FT.com

Why are interest rates so low? The best answer is that the advanced countries are still in a “managed depression”. This malady is deep. It will not end soon.

Strong currents that keep interest rates down - FT.com

Sugar may not be so sweet when it comes to the effects on the world economy. That's the conclusion of Morgan Stanley analysts in a new research report. They say that because health is a key driver of economic growth, rising diabetes and obesity rates cloud the outlook in both emerging markets and developed economies. Sugar consumption is one major culprit behind such health problems — making it a liability for global output.

Here's How Much Sugar Consumption Is Hurting the Global Economy - Bloomberg Business

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Snapchat, the photo-messaging app raising cash at a $15 billion valuation, probably isn't actually worth more than Clorox or Campbell Soup. So where did investors come up with that enormous headline number?

The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies - Bloomberg Business

Markets, not central bankers, are the root cause of today's very low interest rate environment, and they show few signs of shifting their view

When will interest rates rise? The way things are going, maybe never - Telegraph

According to Tudor Jones, the problem has to do with how companies nowadays derive their value from profits, quarterly earnings, and their stock price.  "It's like we've ripped the humanity out of our companies," he said, explaining that we don't value people based on their monthly income or credit score. "We have this double standard when it comes to the way we value businesses. You know what? It's threatening the very underpinnings of our society."

Paul Tudor Jones on inequality - Business Insider

With all the talk of stocks being overvalued due to the massive rally we've seen since 2009, you'd think there'd be almost no dirt cheap stocks. You know what I'm talking about. I mean really cheap. Stocks with single digit P/Es and price-to-book ratios well under 3.0.

Three dirt cheap stocks to buy now

It is a more simple fact: In the brutal Middle East, the only thing that gets anyone’s attention is the threat of regime-toppling force. Obama has no such leverage on Iran. It was used up in Afghanistan and Iraq, wars that have left our military and country so exhausted that former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big U.S. land army into the Middle East “should have his head examined.” Had those wars succeeded, the public today might feel differently. But they didn’t. Geopolitics is all about leverage, and we are negotiating with Iran without the leverage of a credible threat of force. The ayatollahs know it. Under those circumstances, I am sure the Obama team will try to get the best deal it can. But a really good deal isn’t on the menu.

Go Ahead, Ruin My Day - NYTimes.com

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But if you have any faith in the economic projections coming out of the Federal Reserve, a single mandate may actually result in looser, and not tighter, monetary policy.

How a single mandate could result in looser Fed policy - MarketWatch

Here, the theory of the liquidity trap came to the fore, and the sensible half made some startling predictions: massive expansion of central bank balance sheets would not be inflationary, large deficits would not drive up interest rates, austerity would depress economies by much more than it does in normal times. These were not obvious propositions — in fact, many people who thought they knew economics considered them absurd (“Who will buy all the debt that’s being issued? How can you possibly claim that printing that much money isn’t inflationary?&rdquo But they proved right. These past six years have actually been a big win for basic Hicksian macroeconomics.

Economics and Politics by Paul Krugman - The Conscience of a Liberal - NYTimes.com

In return for its blessing for very limited commercial flight testing, the FAA is also demanding that its certificate holders like Amazon share their logs and data to help agency researchers better study usage patterns,  dangers, and agility of small UAVs. Amazon is playing along -- for now.  But unless the FAA adopts a more relaxed set of restrictions regarding drone deliveries by trained operators, than the U.S. may find itself one of the only developed countries to lack the perk for just-in-time drone deliveries.

DailyTech - FAA Grants Amazon Prime Air an "Experimental Airworthiness Certificate"

Researchers from Drexel University partnering colleagues at Aix-Marseille University in France, have discovered a high performance cathode material for use in next generation lithium-sulfur batteries that could one day be used to power mobile devices and electric cars. Lithium-sulfur batteries exhibit a high energy density which is about four times higher than that of lithium-ion batteries currently used in mobile devices. But one of the challenges facing lithium-sulfur batteries is being able find cathode materials that demonstrate long-term stability.

Cathode discovery unlocks performance potential of lithium-sulfur batteries - Electronics Eetimes

A startup called Thync will sell electrodes that you put on your head to improve your mood. The results may vary to a surprising degree.

Coming Soon—Electronic Mood Control | MIT Technology Review

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Consumer drone use brings with it privacy concerns (many models have attachable cameras), regulatory issues, and concerns about the skill level of amateur pilots. Although, drones have done quite a bit of good in the world as well, such as disaster recovery, reforestation, and delivery of goods. Still, things go awry. Here are 12 drone disasters contributing to public wariness.

12 drone disasters that show why the FAA hates drones - TechRepublic

Nick Vujicic, the 32-year-old president of motivational speech marketer Attitude is Altitude, was born without arms or legs. Though he struggles with some practicalities of everyday living (brushing teeth, for example), he has become an in-demand inspirational speaker.

BBC - Capital - The man who leads with no limbs

The surging value of the U.S. dollar may be posing the biggest threat to U.S. corporate earnings since the 2008 financial crisis, hurting results at most U.S.-based multinationals. Some on Wall Street are even talking about an earnings recession.

We're witnessing the biggest threat to US corporate earnings since the 2008 financial crisis - Business Insider

The richest 10% of Americans — and especially the richest 1% and 0.1% of Americans — are now capturing all of the income growth in the country, while the rest of America, some 300 million people, are treading water or losing ground.

How To Fix Inequality - Business Insider

In China, almost 90 percent of teenagers and young adults are nearsighted (compared to 10 to 20 percent 60 years ago), and it’s no coincidence that the average 15-year-old in Shanghai spends 14 hours per week doing homework. Last year, German researchers found that students who attended more years in school had a much higher rate of myopia than did their less academic peers.

Why so many people need glasses - Business Insider

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California is known globally for its coastal beaches, mountains, and desert. But the state's most important economic region may be its Central Valley, one of the world's most productive agricultural areas. Virtually all of the almonds, artichokes, lemons, pistachios, and processed tomatoes grown in the United States originate from the valley, whose productive soil is unmatched elsewhere in the country. California's spinach yield, for example is 60 percent more per acre than in the rest of the United States. The state's marine climate allows it to grow crops like broccoli that wilt in humid climates. California is the world's fifth-largest supplier of food, a big reason why the state would, if an independent country, be the 7th largest economy in the world.

The world's fifth-largest food supplier is almost out of water - Business Insider

Using the S&P 500 as a gauge, U.S. stocks are up nearly 50% since the beginning of 2013, with nary a 10% correction along the way. At this point, however, the U.S. rally may be getting a bit overdone. From a longer-term perspective, we are beginning to see worrisome signs in terms of valuation, investor allocations, sentiment and simply overheated prices. These concerns do not necessarily mean the end of the road for the rally. U.S. stocks may merely need a breather. And if another region is to take the leadership baton from the U.S., a case can be made for that new leader being Europe.

Dana Lyons' Tumblr — Can European stocks take the mantle from the U.S.?

But as Duncan McNeill-McCallum, Vioearth’s chief executive, has been contemplating the $500,000 investment needed to launch his US business recently he has been coming up against a new challenge: a strengthening US dollar.

Stronger dollar weighs on US investment sentiment - FT.com

Jeanne Calment, born a year before Alexander Graham Bell patented his telephone and 14 years before Alexandre Gustave Eiffel built his tower, died today in a nursing home in Arles. At 122, she was the oldest person whose age had been verified by official documents. she used to eat more than two pounds of chocolate a week and treat her skin with olive oil, rode a bicycle until she was 100, and only quit smoking five years ago.

Jeanne Calment, World's Elder, Dies at 122 - NYTimes.com

How much would it cost you to drink a bottle of wine that you bought years ago for $50, but is now worth $500? (Pause for your answer.)

What most of us don't understand about money - Business Insider