Signals of Change Looking at the potential impact of emerging signals of change on the future of sustainable shipping – March 2015
The Sustainable Shipping Initiative (SSI) brings together some of the biggest names in the maritime sector to plan how it can contribute to – and thrive in – a sustainable future. We live in a world of increasing dynamism and volatility, where global drivers such as climate change, growing demand for limited resources and increasing hyperconnectivity are re-defining the way we work. To monitor the key trends in the shipping industry, SSI launched the Blue Skies working group in 2012 to focus on identifying emerging big innovation ideas that may have a long-term impact on the shipping supply chain. Since then we have been exploring developments including future fuels, advances in new eco-ship technology and emerging economic drivers for ‘zero fuel cost’ ships for low-GDP economies. Our new report focuses on “Detecting early signs of change” through scanning trends in the macro environment and evaluating how the innovations that are largely outside of or adjacent to shipping could have an impact on the sector. This report presents fifteen “weak signals” whose potential implications on the future of the shipping industry are evaluated. Three common themes emerge from this analysis that need broader industry considerations, particularly to help accelerate progress towards a more sustainable future for shipping.
• Who will govern the oceans?
• Will we recognise the future captains of the sea?
• What will be the nature of our cargo?
Where will 19 exploration licenses for seabed mining lead?
Seabed mining, a closely watched, if relatively unexplored territory, is set to emerge soon as a significant new use of the world’s oceans. The International Seabed Authority (ISA) has granted 19 exploration licences, and Nautilus Minerals’ Solwara 1 project in Papua New Guinea is expected to be the first commercial deep-sea mining project to start operations within the next five years. As commercial plans to exploit mineral resources on deep-ocean beds gather pace, marine researchers are increasingly concerned about the damage such projects might cause to the sensitive and little-understood ecosystems that thrive there. While some studies show that seabed mining offers an alternative that could be less environmentally destructive than land-based mining, scientists remain cautious about the potential environmental impacts. There are also concerns around the socio-economic impact that these mining activities will have on communities located in the proximity of mining spots, where onshore processing and transport infrastructure are likely to spring up.
http://ssi2040.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/SSI-Signals-of-Change-March-2015-Digital-Final.pdf