Links for 4/13

[admin]

The European Central Bank's decision makers meet Wednesday buoyed by the successful debut of a mass bond-buying spree designed to kickstart growth and will likely quash talk of it wrapping up early.

Buoyed by QE's solid start, ECB policymakers set to meet - Business Insider

Investors will cast a wary eye on the latest gauges of the United States' economic health this week, while troubled Europe shows early signs of turning the corner.

United States loses sparkle as Europe shows signs of hope - Yahoo Finance

A double whammy of weak oil prices and a strong dollar is expected to result in a drop in corporate earnings per share in the first quarter, something that hasn’t happened since 2009. Still, that isn’t a reason for investors to panic, said analyst Savita Subramanian at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “S&P 500 bottom-up EPS (earnings per share) has come down 8% over the last three months to $27.04—a bigger cut than in any other quarter in recent history,” Subramanian said in a note. Analysts are projecting EPS to fall 4% to 6%, excluding the impact of stock buybacks.

Earnings set for first decline since 2009, but don’t panic - MarketWatch

A bearish story is being told by the relative performance of the market’s various sectors. That’s because the sectors with the best year-to-date returns are among those that typically lead the market prior to major tops. In addition, the sectors exhibiting the worst performances this year are those that typically lag.

Leading indicators signal a market top - MarketWatch

Among those saying the Fed should go slowly was the University of Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, who was the only respondent to say he “strongly agrees.” The former economic adviser to President Barack Obama pointedly took note of the frequent errors in the Fed’s forecasts over the past decade, particularly how fast the U.S. economy would grow (way too optimistic) and how quickly the nation’s unemployment rate would fall (far too pessimistic). “Go look at their forecasts for the last six years,” he wrote. “Thank god they didn’t act on those.”

Star economists say Fed should hold off on interest-rate hike - MarketWatch

[admin]

The Hotchkis & Wiley Small Cap Value Fund has returned 35 percent a year since the bull market began in 2009, the top-performing U.S. stock fund during the period. Never heard of James Miles and David Green, the fund’s managers? That’s no surprise. They’re part of a group whose visibility is diminishing fast: famous stock pickers.

You've Never Heard of the Bull Market's Best Stock Pickers - Bloomberg Business

She said: “I first met Ed when I went to a friend’s house for dinner. I was interested in him, I thought he was good looking and clever and seemed to be unattached. “But we just went down a conversational cul-de-sac. Apparently we had nothing in common. He wanted to talk about economics – one of my least favourite subjects.”

Stephanie Flanders: My 'costly' fling with Ed Miliband - Telegraph

The global economy is caught in a low-growth trap as innovation withers and the population ages across the Northern Hemisphere. It will not regain its lost dynamism in the foreseeable future, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Exhausted world stuck in permanent stagnation warns IMF - Telegraph

The Fund said global bourses have charged ahead of reality, soaring to new highs despite a 25pc slump in levels of business investment since 2008. There has been a chronic lack of spending on the sorts of equipment and computer software that drive gains in competitiveness.

Exhausted world stuck in permanent stagnation warns IMF - Telegraph

Not only have the last several years been far above average in terms of job creation, Rieder also noted that the economy has added more jobs in the last 24 months (5.5 million) than it did in the prior 13 years (4.9 million).

Federal Reserve window to raise rates - Business Insider

[admin]

From the beginning of 2008 to Q3 of 2014, the US economy grew by 8.4pc, while the equivalent figures for the UK, Canada and the world as a whole are 3.4pc, 11.2pc, and 17.3pc. By contrast, the eurozone economy contracted by 2.2pc. Within that total, Germany managed growth of 3pc and France about half that. The equivalent figures for Spain. Portugal, Italy and Greece were minus 6.4pc, 7.3pc, 9.5pc and 26pc.

Eurozone's economic crisis far from over - Business Insider

If the Bank of Japan's core price gauge is anything to go by, inflation has all but disappeared. Try telling that to anyone who pays the bills. The general public thinks the cost of living is rising more than twice as fast as the official inflation rate, a survey of consumers by the Bank of Japan shows.

The Curious Case of Japan's Hidden Inflation - Bloomberg Business

The Shanghai Stock Exchange's seven-year high was reached in spite of an upcoming wave of new share offerings which will reduce liquidity. China's security regulator last week approved 30 initial public offerings (IPOs), which could lock up as much as 3.7 trillion yuan (596 billion U.S. dollars) in subscription funds over the next two weeks.

Chinese stocks advance to fresh 7-yr highs - China.org.cn

For nearly a half century, America has been on a witch hunt to find the ingredient that is making us fat. In the 1980s, the culprit was fat itself. Next it was carbs. Today, sugar is the enemy—unless you’re caught up in the war on gluten.

How Flavor Drives Nutrition - WSJ

The world-beating surge in Chinese technology stocks is making the heady days of the dot-com bubble look tame by comparison. The industry is leading gains in China’s $6.9 trillion stock market, sending valuations to an average 220 times reported profits, the most expensive level among global peers. When the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked in March 2000, technology companies in the U.S. had a mean price-to-earnings ratio of 156.

U.S. Dot-Com Bubble Was Nothing Compared to Today’s China Prices - Bloomberg Business

[admin]

Economists and policymakers are on a quest. They are looking for the elixir that will protect their economies from financial crises. Their strategy is to find an indicator that provides an early warning of collapse, and then respond with preventative measures.

The mythic quest for early warnings — Money, Banking and Financial Markets

The equilibrium real interest rate continues to lie at the heart of discussions about economic policy in the US and elsewhere. Ben Bernanke has written that the equilibrium rate, and not the FOMC, is the ultimate determinant of interest rates in the economy, and claims that it is discussed at every Fed meeting. The recent debate about secular stagnation between Mr Bernanke and Lawrence Summers centres on a difference about the future path for the equilibrium rate. And Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester says that it is “the issue policy makers are grappling with” at the FOMC.

Who is right about the equilibrium interest rate? | Gavyn Davies

What I didn't realise until recently was that suicide is the biggest killer of men under the age of 50. A hundred men die a week. It is more prevalent than at any time in the last 14 years and men are four times more likely to end their own lives than women.

Fatal silence: Why do so many fortysomething men kill themselves? - BBC News

A chess grandmaster has been expelled from an international tournament after he was discovered using a smartphone in the toilet to check his moves. Gaioz Nigalidze could face a three-year ban if the complaint against him is upheld.

Chess player out of competition after toilet phone use - BBC News

Lofty valuations in both bonds and stocks are seen as one of the biggest risks for markets, as fears of a "valuation bubble" reach record highs, a fund manager poll has shown. Around 13 percent of managers see "equity bubbles" as the biggest tail risk for markets, up from 2 percent in February, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch fund manager survey for April, out on Tuesday.

Extreme valuations: Bonds, stocks near bubble territory

[admin]

So, let's put them in Fed's shoes and ask them the following question: How would they respond - within the policy mandate - to a situation of sluggish economic growth, an actual unemployment rate of 11 percent, an inflation rate of 0 percent, tightening fiscal policy and the dollar's punishing 20 percent trade-weighted appreciation over the last twelve months? Under these circumstances, how would they justify to the American public an interest rate hike?

Is the Fed brewing the next crisis? - Yahoo Finance

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that global growth remains moderate, with "uneven prospects" across the main countries and regions. Compared with 2014, it says the outlook for advanced countries is improving, but growth in emerging and developing economies is projected to be lower.

Global growth to remain 'moderate' in 2015, says IMF - BBC News

To wit: “If the Chinese market were to double from here it would indeed be in bubble. The same is true for Asia, a doubling would put us back at 3x book which over the last 40 years has been the peak – four times. When we get close to those levels we will be in a bubble, till then it’s a bull market.”

China and a short nuttiness debate | FT Alphaville

Meet the smalltooth sawfish. Though closely related to sharks, this group of sea-dwellers actually belongs to the ray family. This fish really looks like a shark with a chainsaw on its head.  And they are huge, sawfish can grow up to 25ft and used to be abundant in the American oceans.

BBC - Earth - Hope for world’s zaniest fish

Yields on sovereign bonds in Europe have edged so close towards negative territory this year that U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs has called it the "new normal" in the region. Over 2 trillion euros ($2.1 trillion) of outstanding euro zone sovereign debt now has a negative yield, according to calculations by the bank.

Negative yields 'new normal' in Europe: Goldman

[admin]

One thing that can cut through the doom loop is the inescapable pressure of an impending deadline. So what's the best way to design deadlines to make us more productive?

The Procrastination Doom Loop—and How to Break It — The Atlantic

In real-life dating studies, which get closer to genuine intentions, physical attractiveness and earning potential strongly predict romantic attraction.

The Myth of Wealthy Men and Beautiful Women — The Atlantic

But McClintock found that outside of ailing tycoons and Donald Trump, in the practical world it basically doesn’t exist. Where it does, it doesn’t last. The dominant force in mating is matching.

The Myth of Wealthy Men and Beautiful Women — The Atlantic

Across China, where new developments are keeping pace with the rapidly growing economy, reports continue to surface so-called "nail houses." These properties, standing alone amid the ruins of other buildings, belong to owners who have stood their ground and resisted demolition. Defiant property owners say the compensation being offered is too low. Some of them have remained in their homes for years as their court cases drag on and new construction continues all around them. A few homeowners have won their fights, but most have lost. Meanwhile, these nail houses have become powerful symbols of resistance against the world's fastest-growing major economy.

And Then There Was One - The Atlantic

Finland, which faces a general election this week, has been the poster child for education reform and overseas delegations have made pilgrimages to learn from its example.

Finns aren't what they used to be - BBC News

[admin]

The race for renewable energy has passed a turning point. The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined. And there's no going back.

Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables - Bloomberg Business

The run-up is having a big impact around the world. In the United States, it is pinching corporate profits, weighing on economic growth and delivering bargains for American tourists. In Europe and Japan, it's providing relief for economies that have been ailing for years. And in the emerging markets of Asia and Latin America, it is threatening financial stability.

4 ways a surging dollar rattles world economies, markets - Yahoo Finance

The Shanghai Composite is up around 27 percent year to date following last year's over 50 percent surge. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has risen 17 percent this year. "When you have moves like that, you have to temper your views," Crabb told CNBC on Wednesday. "Markets in South Korea are starting to look more interesting because they have become the cheaper market now, which will benefit from improvements in U.S. and China. I like markets where expectations are low and valuations are supportive," he said.

Forget China, this market is Asia's sweet spot

Both countries almost take for granted the ties that bind them today: the $600 billion in annual bilateral trade; the 275,000 Chinese studying in America, and the 25,000 Americans studying in China; the fact that China is now America’s largest agricultural market and the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt; and the fact that last year Chinese investment in the United States for the first time exceeded American investment in China.

What’s Up With You? - NYTimes.com

Some McDonald's franchisees are furious over the company's recent decision to raise wages for some employees. They say that the decision, which affects just 10% of McDonald's US employees, was an "embarrassing" marketing stunt that's backfired against them

McDonald's franchisees against pay raise - Business Insider

[admin]

Some people may be genetically programmed to feel better after taking placebo pills, while others may only heal with real drugs, suggests a new review of existing research.

The placebo effect might be totally misunderstood, and a new finding could spark 'a revolution' - Business Insider

In 60% of cases, attackers are able to compromise an organization within minutes, according to a Verizon report. “Unfortunately, the proportion of breaches discovered within days still falls well below that of time to compromise,” according to Verizon’s 2015 Data Breach Investigations Report.

How long does it take to hack a company? Just minutes, report says - MarketWatch

DJI, the world's largest drone maker, is seeking to raise hundreds of millions of dollars in a funding round that would take the value of the Shenzhen-based company to some US$10 billion.

Chinese drone maker DJI is in talks to raise funding at a $10 billion valuation - Business Insider

Also our trade policy of selective protectionism, which exposes manufacturing workers to competition with the lowest paid workers in the world, while largely protecting doctors, lawyers, and other highly paid professionals (who comprise much of the one percent), has the effect of redistributing income upward. Similarly, our policy of patent protection redistributes hundreds of billions of dollars a year from ordinary workers to drug companies and other beneficiaries of these government-granted monopolies.

Redistribution Can Involve Less Government Rather than More | Beat the Press

Professor Kanter: All right. About a week a year is lost by the average American each year in traffic, just sitting in traffic. A quarter of all bridges in America are considered structurally deficient or functionally obsolete, which means they could fall down and kill people as a bridge did in Minnesota a few years ago. We don't have high-speed rail even when we could have it in the Northeast corridor. Our trains are running on tracks that are shared or there's electric wiring that's a hundred years old. It's aging, it's deteriorating and it isn't as good as that of other countries.

Harvard Rosabeth Moss Kanter infrastructure - Business Insider

[admin]

Treasury yields have been trending lower even as U.S. stocks have continued to stretch back toward their March highs is a bit perverse. This is a reversal of the pattern in place for a while. Traders this week have begun to ask whether this divergence – strong stocks and strong Treasuries prices together – mean that one or the other must crack to restore the relationship.

Can stocks stay aloft with global bond yields crashing? - Yahoo Finance

Sudan, the last male white rhino left in the entire world, is under 24-hour protection by armed guards at the Ol Pejeta Conservancy in central Kenya, CNN reports. The entire species depends on his ability to reproduce with the two other females there.

There's only 1 male white rhino left in the world - Business Insider

Soju — literally, “burned liquor” — is celebrated for its efficiency: It gets you drunk fast and cheap. Many old brands are so bad they double as industrial cleanser. But no more: A wave of newer soju brands are making Korea’s vodka-like drink hip, satisfying, and cosmopolitan.

Reasons why Seoul is the coolest city in Asia - Business Insider

Helped by aggressive monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank (ECB), a flurry of euro zone companies are set to deliver hefty returns for investors over the coming years, according to an uber-bullish note by Citi.

Stellar growth to buoy these European stocks

Indonesia is on track to become Asia's next trillion dollar economy in two years, according to IHS, joining the ranks of China, Japan, India, Australia and South Korea.

This will be Asia's next trillion dollar economy - Yahoo Finance

[admin]

I am, however, very worried that we really don't have an answer about what to do with the accumulated debt stock in the world. According to the 2014 Geneva Report and to the recent McKinsey Global Institute report, the total level of leverage in the world has simply continued to increase since 2008. We have not really achieved any deleveraging at all. Instead, we have simply shifted debt around, whether from the private to the public sector or from one country to another. So, that is my overall concern.

Interview with Adair Turner — Money, Banking and Financial Markets

A camera powered by the light it uses to take pictures has been invented by American scientists. The camera generates power by converting some of the light falling on its sensor into electricity that is then used to take a snap. Theoretically the self-powered device could take a picture every second, forever. The camera's creators are now refining the device and are looking into ways to commercialise the technology.

'Eternal' camera can take pictures forever - BBC News

Wouldn’t it be nice if you could just do a super-fast load of laundry with a few select items, so you could lengthen the time between loads? Pretty soon, you’ll be able to with a foot-powered machine that takes just a little water and no electricity. The 15-pound, 22-inch-tall Drumi takes five minutes, 10 liters of water, and a little bit of soap to clean five pounds of clothes, or about six to seven items.

The Drumi Is a Foot-Powered Washing Machine | Digital Trends

It's become so normalized that when kids are spotted without an adult, it's seen as a crime, as in the case of a Maryland family that's been under police investigation for letting their kids walk home from parks alone. Child Protective Services charged the parents with "unsubstantiated child neglect"

Helicopter parents ruin childhood - Business Insider

Unfortunately, dollar-cost averaging isn't sexy. It's much sexier to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. Obviously, your returns would be much higher if you win the stock market lottery by perfectly timing the tops and bottoms of the market. However, almost everyone who tries to do this will find themselves losing money and lots of it. If you are investing for the long haul and can hang on through watching your portfolio's value drop temporarily in bad times, starting to invest in stocks, even near a peak, may not be as terrifying as it looks. The market has always bounced back sooner or later; so if you can hold on until that later, don't panic.

Dollar Cost Averaging Time magazine - Business Insider