Interesting Post Courier article; IOC close to deal, Shell interested in chunk

[Palm]

Post Courier is testing that Shell is bidding on major interest in EA and that deals are getting close. Throws in some BS about BOD being frustrated with Phil and they have booted him aside and Colin is handling process. But IOC refutes that and states they are close to making decision, etc.
http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20120523/business04.htm

[jonleba127]

Palmtok read a little further, Duma throws his hat in the ring today, he is now running for PM. He is quoted as saying "I delivered to this nation the much talked about LNG project and second LNG in Gulf". Sounds like he is talking about XOM LNG, and is also taking credit for bringing forth the IOC Gulf project. O'Neill can't be too happy being upstaged by Duma. Next move O'Neill.

[trans]

Does this suggest Duma is out? or why wloud he be doing this?

[Palm]

Duma can throw his whole noggin in the ring and he has little chance. He has very little support in his position as Minister of DPE. People overall do not trust Duma. He has as much chance of becoming PM as Tree does of finding a 15th wife with more than 6 teeth.

Jonleba, I do like the statement by Duma that he has "delivered" the 2nd LNG project. It's easy to deliver when you have Shell driving the semi, but it sounds as if in his mind an acceptable deal has been done.

[jft310]

Duma has this thid new house ya see in Port Douglas Australia.Where did that money come from.??He is well suioted for PM. O'Neil is honest and then theres the rest.

[geologydude]

Perhaps Duma was canned by O'Neill and is now free to run for the PM position...nothing to lose in other words.

[jonleba127]

Everyone wants to be top dog. In early March, Nemah, Polye and Duma all claimed to be blood brothers with O'Neill and would support him for PM. That pact didn't last 60 days with Nemah, Polye and now Duma saying they would do a better job than O'Neill as PM. Nemah knows he can't buy the election right now and has too many skeletons or houses in Cairns he rather not talk about. Nemah says he would be happy with the vice PM job, forms an alliance with O'Neill, gets to stay in the game. O'Neill and Nemah combined should win out. Polye former loyal dog to Somare is making his move, right now Polye does not have enough support. Duma knows O'Neill does not consider him loyal and probably did what he had to, to help Shell against O'Neill's wishes. Odds are O'Neill will not reappoint Duma. Duma is the weakest of the bunch. He has no place to go but make the run for PM. Worst case after the election Duma gives his support to Polye and tries for the vice PM job. In politics no one ever forgives their opponents, except in PNG, there is too much money to be made, why fight.

[Tree]

Let's translate this article, shall we?

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Royal Dutch Shell closes in on gas reserves (Shell missed the short list and now must go big)

OIL major Royal Dutch Shell is edging closer to achieving its long-held ambition to capture an advantageous gas reserves position in Papua New Guinea, after the latest twist in the tale of InterOil's planned liquefied natural gas project here. (Shell/Petromin inserts self)

A recent move by the PNG department of petroleum to terminate a late-2009 government accord with InterOil for the project has shaken the US listed company’s plans to the core. (Credit to Duma for opening Shell door)

InterOil is challenging the department's right to do away with the project agreement, a crucial framework for the development of its planned venture, which would tap its Elk and Antelope gas fields. (Unwise to challenge, so IOC deals with DPE/Shell can dog IOC until 6/13 when IOC can legally loses their LNG PA)

It reckons it can find a way of dealing with the government’s concerns, which centre on the fragmented nature of the project, including both onshore and floating LNG plants. (Select winner from short-list)

InterOil’s advisers, UBS, Morgan Stanley and Macquarie Capital, have for some months been seeking a major LNG operator to partner on the project. But now they are understood to be indicating to interested parties that all of InterOil’s holding in the gas fields is on offer, not just a partner stake. (Takes more than 1 bidder to make a party 'parties')

That would no doubt suit Shell, which may be reluctant to take a minority role alongside InterOil. (Shell got outbid via front door - Boo F-ing Hoo)

Talk in the market is that the termination letter was the last straw for InterOil's board, which has lost patience with the sale process being run by the CEO, Phil Mulacek, and handed control of it to a board committee chaired by the CFO. (Credit Duma for 'eliminating' the threat to PNG's revenues - greedy and hubristic Phil!!)

But the message from the InterOil camp is that the board – chaired by Mulacek – is already closely involved in the partnering process, which is heading towards a resolution in the coming weeks in a manner that will satisfy the government’s concerns. (Not so fast Shell!! We can select an approved partner anyday, so this is gonna get expensive)

The InterOil camp is sticking with the line that the deal with a partner will involve “an interest” in the gas fields. (Can Shell afford to call this bluff?? Nope)

Meanwhile, when the Post- Courier forwarded a copy of this information to InterOil and Shell for comments and confirmation respectively, neither responded. (Helloooo, CAs in place)

**********

Looks to me that IOC is gonna monetize PRL 15 in one transaction. In return, that keeps IOC's licenses and routine extensions to drilling deadlines will be granted by all future supportive DPE Ministers. IOC will get approval for Gulf LNG and T-2 will feed that. E/A and T-2 can both be delivered to CSPs at the same time. Shell to napanapa or large stick built in Gulf?? JKM throws in behind Shell/PRL 15 and IOC/T-2/Gulf LNG. JKM still gets much needed LNG in 2015 from Gulf LNG and dry gas fed to XOM for their expansion. Sounds like a win/win/win/win. All prior to AGM.

OK, I'll admit, that last sentence is a bit of a stretch.

[jft310]

Lets see. The BOD meeting was before the last CC.Phil was very upset on the call. We now know why.CV is in charge of getting this done now and Phil was pissed is my take.Phil has his long suit. Hired David Holland and hired Henry A.We all have strengths and weaknesses.I can't type ya see.Anyone not know that??

[Palm]

Jonleba, completely agree with your comments. Over 4,000 have said they are running for 109 parliamentary minister positions. This election is very important for png as an emerging nation and a lot of new blood wants to be involved. But they are very splintered. Oneill and Namah along with the others in the recently formed coalition have a huge base of support. Overall even though this administration has taken some unorthodox actions, people feel they are moving the country past the corrupt Somare ways. Duma is associated with Somare and that camp probably sees him as their best shot. That's not going to work. Duma can say what he wants but when he smiles there are dollar bills between his teeth. He's old school and people don't trust him. I agree that he's probably gone as DPE Minister under a new Oneill administration and he knows that. This is his only shot at a position of power. Very slim chance.