Beware Chandler Curse

[qekc0303]

I make the following observations as an EWC long and partner in arms with IOC (I hope)...

RC bought a large chunk of EWC off EWI (Elliott) after propositioning EWC board for a 20% stake (declined by BOD and agreed at 14% or thereabouts in the end). Possibly a similar advance was made to IOC board and refused outright, hence RC acquiring everything on market?

He started at 50c on EWC and drove it up, all with relatively good news along the way (barring delayed FID for Gulf LNG - and gradually dried up the float). He hit the 20% limit for an ASX company whereby a takeoffer must be made, and stopped buying. Almost simultaneously, a major Australian paper ran articles accusing EWC of fraud and the share price started a massive correction from its peak, all on the back of relatively good, or at least benign news. I believe he peeved off a few players along the way (as they lost $) - and they sought revenge - and he was powerless to stop them. He is now completely underwater on every EWC share he has ever bought and a lot of smaller investors have been badly burnt following on his coat tails. I remain well and truly in the black with my 3c shares, but my holding is diluted and I am annoyed at RC, EWC and the crooks that all contributed to it. Clearly, the long term looks good, but that is the life story of EWC - and some people have literally died waiting.

RC is not that smart - he just has more money than me. I "found" EWC a decade before he did and have shown a lot more patience than he has had to with EWC.

I watch and read the hype about RC here and shake my head. Be careful.

[Tree]

Am I missing something here? The moral of the story is to sell now to Chandler before those he po's crash pps? - Unless you are in at a ridiculously low average cost?? Would I rather have RC buying such a big chunk and continue buying daily or not? Clearly I would. With looming asset sales and project approvals it appears he has timed it perfectly.

[qekc0303]

Just saying that one can't expect it to be all positive. If the other big holders stay firm and he is drying up the float then it is easier for some to knock the price around when none of those bigs intervene to prevent it - which is what seems to have happened with EWC. Different listing rules etc too, so we're not comparing the same fruit here...I'm just saying that every time I see RC mentioned it's a big positive hype and it certainly has not worked out that way for EWC in the short term, so the unexpected can happen. There was a bit of talk in EWC chat rooms back when RC started buying, saying that he had set a 50c floor by buying in so big at and above that price and congratulating him for timing his play with EWC.

The only "bad" news for EWC was a FID delay by IOC and the SP is easily manipulated on that smaller float - with big paper or real losses for those that chased him up.

Everything looks great for you guys, don't get me wrong, and I wish you all great success, but just keep EWC in the back of your mind, given it's the same guy and he appears to be playing the same game with possibly much the same people watching and playing along with him...there is some pretty serious stuff going on obviously, with players much bigger than him.

[jft310]

RC is drying up the IOC float.This has been the IOC plan for years. When they have a deal the plan has been to find a whale and dry up the float, then announce the deal and then list on the Singapore,and then split the stock .Finally to close the deal. Thats not what happened with EWC.With IOC they have a deal see Duma's statement of such.So RC now drys up the float.etc etc.

[ArtM72]

I really don't see a lot of similarity between EWC and IOC. One is in the utility creation business, the other in natural resource development. The first has wealth in contracts, the second its wealth in raw materials.

The fact that a guy bought up a lot of stock from a small company and pricing fell with buying pressure removed is certainly noted. But while those here certainly seem to welcome RC's market price support I doubt many have made their investment decisions based upon it. For one, I'm invested for the geology IOC has rights to and their proven ability to find hydrocarbons in those areas with regularity.

Other than bad Karma (which by RC's wealth he seems to have little of) about the only "curse" in capital markets other than simple fraud is with those who buy companies, load them with debt, take them public and then escape leaving others holding the bag. I haven't heard evidence yet that is RC's MO. Maybe you have examples.

[admin]

What did he do wrong at EWC, qekco? He bought, the volume and name was obviously a driver for the stock price, he reached 20% after which you have to make some formal offer, which he didn't want to do and then a host of articles about EWC appeared that crushed the price.

Unless you blame him for those articles or for not buying even more, I can't see what the problem is. What has he done wrong?

Have to go with Art here.

[bertl05]

Can't see how you would blame RC. If you are upset by the EWC beat down in the press and the share price I'd think anger at the source makes more sense. Shell.

[qekc0303]

Absolutely nothing - that's the point. I agree with everything you've said basically, and everything that he and EWC have done (to my knowledge) has been without reproach, but the short term SP result is unexpected. I am just suggesting that assuming all will be rosy for IOC as he makes his play there as well may also not result in the expected. Who knows what attention he is getting from those who may seek to undermine IOC? Just wanted to get everyone thinking of the unexpected...that's it.

[admin]

Ah, ok, qekco, no problem then. I think we're quite used to "the unexpected" with IOC, to be honest. There are quite a few "known unknowns" and even the occasional "unknown unknown" does happen..