Carnage for the costly

[Tree]

Sow far sew good

http://www.globallnginfo.com/world%20lng%20plants%20&%20terminals.pdf

[jft310]

Nice column to see our plant .

[Palm]

Tree, will this cause you to cover your confirmed short position?

[Putncalls]

I see a cancelled PNG Gulf LNG project? Of course the US and Canadian reclassification terminals would be cancelled.

[Stavros]

Thanks for the LNG Project list Tree.

My comments:

1. After his non-stop negative posts on SHU single-handedly drove the PPS down to a 52-week low, Tree probably covered his short position at $30.88, driving the PPS up to $40. The next thing we'll see is Richard Chandler come back and drive the price up to $60+

2. The LNG Project list shows Yemen LNG plant as "On-Stream" - - - it's shut down due to the war. When will it re-start? A better question: Will the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran become Bosom Buddies in the near future? TOTAL is in the JV at 40%. They have loans to pay off by December 2023.

3. The LNG Project list shows Yamal LNG plant as "Under Construction" - - - they are not able to get the additional required financing and may suspend construction. TOTAL is in the JV at 20%.

4. The LNG Project list shows Ichthys LNG plant as "Under Construction" - - - they are now badly delayed and much higher cost than planned. TOTAL is in the JV at 30%.

5. The LNG Project list shows Papua LNG plant being planned - - - TOTAL is the Operator - - - TOTAL seemingly needs the LNG badly. Citi's claim of delays in resource certification, FID and construction/start-up seem to be erroneous (possibly ill-intentioned).

6. The LNG Project list shows Gulf LNG Plant (Papua New Guinea) as being Cancelled! - - - Judging by the various recent press reports, and Governor Kavo's new-found support for Papua LNG being located near POM, I personally think a Gulf LNG Project (underpinned by IOC's gas in Triceratops/ Bobcat/ Raptor/ etc), will happen. Therefore, a Gulf LNG Plant should be moved to the column "Proposed/ Under Study"

7. I believe that a large majority of the 11 Planned and Proposed Canadian LNG Plants will be Suspended! or Cancelled! in due course.

8. I believe that most of the 6 Planned and Proposed Australian LNG Plants will be Suspended! or Cancelled! in due course. Considering the newly-commissioned and Under Construction Australian projects will all lose money, the next 6 will not be sanctioned any time soon. If they are, then you know for sure that Papua LNG will be sanctioned first.

9. Of particular note is that PNG LNG Train #3 IS NOT LISTED anywhere. Therefore, the industry know-it-alls realize there ain't no more gas in dem thar P'nyang Hills despite ExxonMobil's public statements to the contrary.

GO GATORS
GO RUTGERS

LET'S GO METS

[Putncalls]

With Respect to Items #6 and #9:
In the Planned column, 6 from the bottom is Papau LNG still a go. I thinks it's Gulf LNG train #3 that is cancelled.

[Stavros]

Let's look at the list again Putz so we can be on the same page.

The lists shows three LNG Plants in the Independent State of Papua New Guinea:

Number One
Planned Column, Sixth from the bottom, is the "Papua LNG Plant" which is our baby being developed by TOTAL -using Elk/Antelope Gas
I refer to that in #5. Do you agree?

Number Two
Planned Column, Twelfth from the top, is the "Gulf LNG Plant" shown as Cancelled! This is the LNG plant that IOC was developing together with Pacific LNG before the Transformational Deal was done.
I refer to that in #6. Do you agree?

Number Three
On-Stream Column, Twelfth from the bottom, is the PNG LNG Plant (2 Trains being operated by ExxonMobil) Do you Agree?

There are FOUR LNG plants in Papua New Guinea that I reference:

ONE: Papua LNG Plant - almost certainly 2 trains to be operated by TOTAL using Elk/Antelope Gas. Personally, my guess is that there will be enough gas for Two 5.5 million tons per annum trains!

TWO: Gulf LNG Plant - Previously accepted by PNG Government; to be operated by IOC/Pacific LNG - - - Cancelled!

THREE: PNG LNG Plant - 2 trains now being operated by ExxonMobil at somewhat above the design capacity

FOUR: PNG LNG Train #3 - the 3rd Train being studied by ExxonMobil that would use gas from P'nyang. It is not on the list. I refer to this omission from the list in #9

METS WILL BEAT KC IN SIX OR LESS

[Putncalls]

Maybe I have the third XOM train mixed up with Gulf LNG.