LNG Article

[Putncalls]

I don't know if Timera Energy is a respeted organization.They seem to state that a lot of uncontracted LNG is being developed.  Any coments on this?

http://www.timera-energy.com/the-mountai...ng-supply/

[jft310]

Timera Energy needs to look at Wood Mac slides reproduced on Interoil slides . Contracted FID falls off a cliff in 2022 or so see Interoil slides . Think Arun which for 20 plus years produced 6 trains of LNG . Today they are producing nada why ?? they have no more gas. Today they are importing gas in fact .
One can't just add in today's supply with the new supply . Nope ask Arun . One needs to look at useful life of each plant and when does the underlying gas supply hit zero . No more to produce .
This study chose the easy route add in today's supply plus new supply . Unfortunately old supply doesn't last forever . Wood Mac an independent firm does it right they realize at some time the present LNG production stops as all the gas is produced .

[Putncalls]

I think there is enough US and Aussie supply to last almost forever.

[jft310]

We are talking contract gas. Gas that has already been monetized with an operating plant . That's what Wood Mac measured . Let's not forget each plant costs Billions sometimes $10's of Billions . One can't move a plant to new gas supplies . Can build expensive pipelines .
US gas is $3 range per mcf with Total paying Interoil about a $1..
Will costs matter ?! Most think so . Is the US closer or further away from PNG . Will transportation costs matter??? Most think so .
Australian gas is priced out of the current market .

[Putncalls]

Aussie gas isn't priced out. The Aussie profit is priced out. The gas get's produced as long as EBITA is > 0
Using the Sabine numbers of 3 to liquify, 2.75 to ship, and 1.15 * HH of 2.8, I get 9+ for a positive Sabine EBITA in Asia.

RJ thinks shipping is more like 3-4. If that's true Papua LNG undercuts US brownfield projects all day long.
I also would like to note that Europe and the UK will take cheap !7$(lower shipping cost) gas to replace coal because of the carbon tax.