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Insider buying isn't a guarantee for higher stock prices (management can be too optimistic, or plain wrong, or if their optimism isn't shared by fund managers the stock will go nowhere) but it's interesting nevertheless. Here are five of them:
Corporate insiders sell their own companies' stock for a number of reasons. They might need the cash for a big personal purchase such as a new house or yacht, or they might need the cash to fund a charity. Sometimes they sell as part of a planned selling program that they have put in place for diversification purposes, which allows them to sell stock in stages instead of selling all at one price. Other times they sell because they think their stock is overvalued and the risk/reward is no longer attractive. Some even dump their own stock because they have inside knowledge that a competitor is eating their lunch and stealing market share. But insiders usually buy their own shares for one reason: They think the stock is a bargain and has tremendous upside.
5 Stocks Insiders Love for 2016: Angie's List (ANGI), Land's End (LE), Actuant (ATU), Sears (SHLD), Calamos Asset Management (CLMS) - TheStreet
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Some useful nuggets in here, after all, it's Goldman Sachs..
In a client note on Thursday, they outlined what they believe will be the top-10 themes across global markets in the new year, which inform their various forecasts for stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and everything else in between.
Goldman Sachs' top-market themes for '16 - Business Insider
Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Team just released its top trade recommendations for 2016. They include both long and short positions in every financial-asset class, and they span the world. In other words, it's how Goldman Sachs recommends trading the world.
Goldman Sachs 6 top trade recommendations for 2016 - Business Insider
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01-03-2016, 01:16 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-03-2016, 01:17 PM by admin.)
For instance, the sixth trend Goldman is forseeing for 2016 is really important:
6. The global savings glut is reversing
The "global savings glut," a term coined by former fed chair Ben Bernanke, was created as oil prices rallied in the late 2000s.
The strategists wrote: "The surges in petrodollar savings in the pre- and post-crisis periods are clearly visible. Equally visible, if less remarked upon, is the recent collapse of petrodollar savings following the collapse of global energy prices. In addition, Exhibit 7 shows the EM FX reserves, too, appear to have peaked (another source of saving cited by Bernanke). In our view, these savings declines are bearish for rates, just as they were arguably bullish for rates during the pre-crisis period."
Source: Goldman Sachs
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01-03-2016, 01:19 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-03-2016, 01:22 PM by admin.)
Why is this important? Well, the global savings glut was one important force that got us into secular stagnation, characterized by very low, or even negative rates required to balance desired savings and investment. Here is a quick intro into secular stagnation.
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We have a new article on Seeking Alpha, all the gloom and doom isn't really warranted, although we're not too optimistic for 2016 either:
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The US seems to be in the grip of gloom and doom. A dispassionate look at the figures shows little foundation for this.
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Many seem to expect some kind of crash.
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While a significant correction is always likely, we see little reason for a 2008 style crash, unless there is some black swan event (big Chinese devaluation, emerging market default, etc.).
Why All The Gloom And Doom? | Seeking Alpha
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There are grounds for hoping that the world economy is at last starting to free itself from a low-growth trap. The global savings rate has peaked at 25pc of GDP and seems to be trending down very slowly as China switches to a consumption-led growth model. Or put another way, the underlying imbalance of capital over spending that has bedevilled us for so long is finally correcting.
The world's political and economic order is stronger than it looks - Telegraph
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A January effect?
I did not say "the" January effect, since the calendar-based prognoses have broadened to include the following:
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The original January effect saw losers sold near the end of the year to harvest the tax losses. After 30 days, many repurchase, causing a January rebound.
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Some investors wait until January to sell winners, delaying the tax effect. Reportedly (Art Cashin) others sell winning names short during the last two days of the trading year, anticipating the tax trade.
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Many believe that as goes January, so goes the year.
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Some believe that as goes the first trading day, so goes January and the year.
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Some will focus on the Presidential election year.
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And a few will stick to the data.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will There Be A January Effect? | Seeking Alpha
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