January 2016

[admin]

Disappointing selloff after better than expected Chinese export data. Not so hard to see what's coming next..

[admin]

Finally, the market became so oversold on Wednesday that Jim Cramer thinks investors can start to pick their favorite stocks again. And while the market didn't bottom, there were real signs of capitulation. "I am not saying that a bottom has arrived … but I am saying that for the first time since this hideous decline began, we are beginning to see some of the necessary ingredients that make a bottom possible," the "Mad Money" host said.

Cramer: Market oversold—start picking these stocks - Yahoo Finance

On the one hand he has a point, as most stocks are waaaay more down than the index, but still we think we'll test the September lows, although Cramer doesn't exclude going lower either.

[admin]

Needless to say, it's a bit of a bloodbath out there..

Here Are the 10 Worst S&P 500 Stocks So Far in 2016 - TheStreet

[admin]

Here is another interesting statistic..

“There is no evidence of anything rolling over in the US. Europe is clearly recovering and the M3 money supply in Germany is growing at almost 10pc, which normally means stronger activity,” he said. Bank of America said panic selling had triggered its “contrarian buy signal”, since 88pc of global equity indexes are now trading below their 200-day and 50-day moving averages. The "Bull & Bear" index is at an ultra-negative level of 1.3.

RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears - Telegraph

[admin]

More interesting stuff from the markets:

Credit Suisse analyst Helen Haworth looked at investor appetite for risk and found that it fit the profile of a full-blown panic.

The team looked at things such as global growth rates, economic policies, and asset valuation to come to that conclusion.

The Credit Suisse chart shows where we are today, compared with past panics:

Credit Suisse

This can be very good news for investors who have the stomach for some risk, for a short time at least. Where there is panic, euphoria can't be very far away.

It's like that old Warren Buffett line: "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."

CREDIT SUISSE: Markets are in panic mode - Business Insider

[admin]

We're buying another 500JKS at $18.90

[admin]

We've probably not hit the bottom, but trying to time that is basically down to luck. We simply see value in these JKS shares at this pricepoint and are likely to accumulate more if it falls further.

[admin]

Let us recapitulate why we just bought JKS:

• It's the market leader in China
• China has just committed to the Paris climate deal
• China has a terrible pollution problem in many of its cities
• Solar energy is only getting cheaper, so does energy storage, and combined this seems to be the future of electricity generation

Where we can be wrong:

• Solar stalls because of cheap alternatives (natural gas)
• Overcapacity develops in the solar industry, leading to falling prices, margins, write-offs and even rationalizations.

The latter especially is an always present danger, but as of now, there are little signs of this developing.

[admin]

Or perhaps the timing wasn't so bad with these JKS shares. Half an hour later and they're up a point already. Waaay too soon to tell, of course..

[admin]

What is a pity is that we were waiting for the S&P to get into the 1850-1860 range to short much more of these VIX July futures, as we assumed we would retest the September lows. That could very well still happen, but for now we're off to the races..