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January 2016
#11

For the virtual portfolio we're buying:

  • 1000 shares INVN at $9.40
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#12

It's getting oversold and $9 has been a multiple bottom

INVN InvenSense, Inc. daily Stock Chart

INVN InvenSense, Inc. monthly Stock Chart

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#13

We're also buying:

  • 500 SKX at 29.20
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#14

Sketchers (SKX) sold off on Q3 disappointment but we think this is a one-off and the reaction has been overdone. The shares are actually fairly cheap. Then there is this:

  • Total U.S. athletic footwear point-of-sales rose 10.7% Y/Y for the week ending December 12, according to data from Sportscan.
  • Unit sales were up 5.7%, while the average selling price increased 4.7% during the week. Both marks easily top growth rates across broad retail.
  • Sales in the basketball category were up 20% from the corresponding week a year ago. Nike (NYSE:NKE), Adidas (OTCQX:ADDYY), and Under Armour (NYSE:UA) are the dominate basketball players, while Foot Locker (NYSE:FL) and Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL) are thriving selling channels. On a side note, Finish Line's website was queuing visitors this morning due to heavy traffic.
  • The casual athletic footwear category was up even hotter than basketball with a 32% pop. Wolverine Worldwide (NYSE:WWW) and Skechers (NYSE:SKX) are likely to have scored a lot of that action. Nike's Converse brand is also a major force in casual athletic. Sales of the iconic Chuck Taylor line have almost doubled over the last five years to top $2B.
  • Running shoes sales increased 7.6% during the key week.
  • Sector leader Nike reports earnings on December 22. A strong read on futures orders could resonate across the industry.
  • Previously: Confidence in Nike ahead of earnings week (Dec. 18)

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#15

Looks like a very ugly day ahead, luckily we have plenty of cash in the virtual portfolio, we've hardly started buying. And there are still optimists:

The eurozone is nearing the sweet spot, a fleeting nirvana of 2pc growth, conjured by the trifecta of a cheap euro, budgetary break-out, and the end of bank deleveraging. Mario Draghi’s printing presses are firing on all cylinders. The 'broad' M3 money supply is growing at turbo-charged rates of 5pc in real terms. This is a 12-month leading indicator for the economy, so enjoy the ride, at least until the demonic Fiscal Compact returns at the dead of night to smother Europe once again.

Economic sweet spot of 2016 before the reflation storm - Telegraph

China's money supply is also catching fire. Growth of 'real true M1' has spiked to 10pc, a giddy shot of caffeine not seen since the post-Lehman spree. Combined credit and local government bond issuance is surging at a rate of 14pc. The Communist Party cranked up fiscal spending by 18.9pc in November.

Economic sweet spot of 2016 before the reflation storm - Telegraph

The epic dollar rally has come and gone. The world's currency will drift down over coming months, and that will be a reprieve for the likes of Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, and Colombia. Those at the wrong end of $9 trillion of off-shore debt in US dollars may breath easier: they will not escape. The MSCI index of emerging market stocks will return from the dead, clawing back most of the 28pc in losses since last April, but only to lurch into a greater storm

Economic sweet spot of 2016 before the reflation storm - Telegraph

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#16

Ellie Mae (ELLI), our first buy here at the end of last year is holding support and is up 5% (on an upgrade by Stephens), which is fairly remarkable on a day of market mayham. We're not celebrating yet though, it's likely the sell-off isn't done yet.

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#17

We've flagged this last year as one of the biggest risks for the markets (see here for an explanation), and it's back again:

Since the dawn of the new year, however, investors have become much more concerned that a larger devaluation may be in the works, either through the choice of the Chinese authorities, or because the outflow of private capital is getting out of hand. Some bears in the currency markets believe that China could soon be suffering from a genuine exchange rate crisis, in which its enormous foreign exchange reserves could be quickly drained.

The Chinese devaluation threat — again | Gavyn Davies

What it does suggest, however, is that private sector capital outflows have been very large recently. Market sources reckon that private capital outflows may be running at $10bn a day, slightly more than occurred during the crisis last August. Official foreign exchange reserves have declined by $213bn, from $3,651bn last July to $3,438bn at the end of November, and will probably have dropped further when the December figures appear on Thursday.

The Chinese devaluation threat — again | Gavyn Davies

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#18

Here is another one we're just watching, but with OLED screens rapidly gaining traction, this is definitely the future. At the CES, there was even a laptop (from HP) with an OLED screen and the verdict was:

That’s apart from the new tech, which is bound to boast an astronomical contrast ratio and sharp color accuracy. That steep contrast means images and videos are more lifelike, and faces are more detailed and expressive, especially in dark areas. Even UI elements, like the Start bar in Windows looks better, with a black level that matches the bezel’s seamlessly. After spending a few minutes with an OLED, other screens look like they have tissue paper over them.

OLED Universal Display Corp. daily Stock Chart

Multiple bottom in the low 30s, multiple top in the mid 50s. This was actually recommended by us before (in 2012) when it was at $30.

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#19

Tonight we will have some insight in whether the Chinese mayham is likely to continue:

China is due to report foreign-currency reserves on Thursday, with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey predicting a $23 billion decline in December. Government data next week are forecast to show Chinese exports shrank for a sixth straight month in December. The private Caixin Media and Markit Economics Chinese services gauge fell to a 17-month low, according to a report released Wednesday.

China Markets in Turmoil as Weak Yuan Fixing Sparks Stock Tumble - Bloomberg Business

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#20

Actually, these figures are already out and they're not good..

China is burning through cash as it battles to support the yuan. The nation’s foreign currency reserves tumbled by a record $108 billion in December as the central bank sold dollars to stem a slide in the currency. That was about four times greater than analysts predicted in a Bloomberg survey, and reduced the stockpile to the lowest level in three years. Despite the intervention, the yuan’s descent has steepened, with the currency falling to a five-year low on Thursday.



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