January 2016

[admin]

At the moment, the markets are up 1.7% while the VIX is only down 4%, this suggests to us that there will be more selling to come, usually with such a market move, the VIX is down by double digits..

[admin]

Well, we did have a feeling that the selling wasn't done as the VIX declined very little for such a big rally yesterday, and this now seems vindicated..

[admin]

Now that US data is coming in soft this begins to be a whole new ball game, we fear..

[admin]

That Fed December rate rise now seems a mistake.. We already told you beforehand in September..

[admin]

^{We're shorting another July VIX future at $23.00}

[admin]

It's only pussyfooting with shorting these July VIX futures as the softness in US data this morning makes us considerably less sure the 1850-1870 support will actually hold.

Nevertheless, the VIX itself is nearly 28, it's difficult to imagine that no period of relative calm will return between now and July, and there is always the possibility to roll them over to later months.

[admin]

Markets down 2%+ again, but two of our picks, SKX and especially ELLI are actually up (2.3% and 4.2%). The markets should have some support of these levels, but this is not a market one can take things for granted.

[admin]

For a change, some good news out of China..

Chinese property stocks advanced after data showed home prices increased in more cities last month. The benchmark stock index swung between gains and losses. The Shanghai property index climbed 0.8 percent at 10:04 a.m., the biggest increase among industry groups. Gemdale Corp. led gains for developers, surging to the highest level in almost a month. New-home prices climbed in 39 cities, compared with 33 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3 percent, erasing a loss of as much as 1.9 percent.

Chinese Property Stocks Rise After Home-Price Recovery Spreads - Bloomberg Business

[admin]

But it doesn't mean China's real estate market doesn't have problems..

For an economy facing its slowest economic growth in a quarter century, a 7.7 percent year-on-year rise in new home prices in December would seem to offer China some light at the end of the tunnel. But the headline number, published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, masks China's massive property problem - a vast amount of unsold apartments mainly in its smaller cities.

Strong China property data masks big problem: unsold homes | Reuters

[admin]

According to data released yesterday by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a record $329 billion was invested in clean energy worldwide in 2015. Last year was also the strongest ever for installations of renewable energy capacity, with 64 gigawatts of wind and 57 gigawatts of solar power commissioned. Given the relentless plunge in oil prices, now flirting with $30 a barrel, that seems counterintuitive: conventional wisdom says that cheap fossil fuels inhibit the growth of renewables.

Growth in renewable energy shows no signs of slowing, even though fossil fuel prices have plummeted. Here’s why. | MIT Technology Review

This is something we've argued for quite some time, especially for China (and market leader JKS there). A main driver in China is simply the air quality in most of it's cities, which threaten a middle class revolt. Also, the oil price within China is $40, not $30.