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The information in this article is not fully informative regarding timing of first gas.
The article says: " ... with potential for first gas in 2022."
The facts are:
+ Page 9 of the Goldman Sachs presentation quotes the August 2015 Wood Mackenzie "assumption" that first gas would be sold in mid-2022. This is what's alluded to in the Article.
HOWEVER ...
+ On Page 11 of the Goldman Sachs presentation, IOC super-imposed their own arrow onto the Wood Mackenzie Global LNG Demand-Supply graph, showing they believe first gas will be produced in mid 2021.
In addition, TOTAL's timeline for Project Development, issued in December 2013, also showed first gas in mid-2021. To my knowledge, TOTAL has never issued a revised project schedule that indicates first gas later than mid-2021. In their September Investor's Day presentation they only stated that Papua LNG production would commence after 2020.
If Antelope 6 is the last exploration well, certification payment will be made before 4Q2016, there will be early design/construction work in 2016/2017, and FID will be in mid 2017.
If that turns out to be the case, I personally believe that first gas will be in mid-2021 after a 48 month project construction duration.
The key is whether TOTAL can sell the LNG as quickly as anticipated. With strong positive vibrations from Japanese leaders, I think it's possible they sell the LNG even faster.
There is even the potential for TOTAL to copy one of their previous LNG plant designs and get Papua LNG built faster than 48 months.
IF THEY AGREE TO DRILL A-7, then all bets are off on timing!
Drivel Maven with Personality
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I wonder why India isn't on their list of markets?
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There are several regasification terminals in India. More are coming for sure.
TOTAL and Shell already partner in the LNG regasification complex in Hazira, India.
It's on the West coast.
This is one of 6 Regas Terminals in TOTAL's portfolio.
It started operations at an annual capacity of 2.5 million tons.
It's current capacity is 5 million tons per annum.
They intend to expand further to 7.5 million tons.
Then a capacity increase to 10 million is planned in the next few years.
So yes you're correct Putz, India is definitely a focus for TOTAL as a market along with the other five countries mentioned on Page 9 of IOC's presentation.
Drivel Maven with Personality
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India likes to buy very cheaply . Or others are willing to pay more than India . I wonder if we will be selling spot cargos or will we fully pre sell cargos ?? India has a history of buying a large portion of need in the spot market . If Wood Mac supply demand graph is correct than India might decide to contract for more supply than use the spot market ???The spot market could have higher prices than the contract price the opposite of today .
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I also noticed that mid-2021 date on page 11, Stavros. I think you nailed it above, except that I still wonder whether they might be able to fit an Ant 7 into the overall project schedule for 2021, if they proceed sometime soon, still an unknown of course.
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Will shareholders put up with a wait on Ant 7 ??! The prospect of further delays from an Ant 7 are weighing on the stock price as well as the price of oil etc .
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RJ as A6 listed as a high impact event. Kinda scary after this lonnnnngggggg wait.
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Odd.. He knows better. " It's going to get muddy." MH
Closure does define the reserve though.
;-)