Scenarios

[observer]

a) Nautilus Minerals will not be able raise enough cash and declare bankruptcy --> not likely in my view given the fact that the project has been underway since the 1990s(?) and in view of the fact that several key components have been completed.

b) NM and/or will experience serious financing issues along the way, forcing NM to mothball the project to conserve cash --> has happened in the past, quite possible particulary if the gathering stock market and banking crises gathers traction

c) NM will dilute again before SOP --> very likely IMHO in light of the fact that NM themselves have stated today that even the maximum proceeds from the latest rights offering will not suffice to cover all expenses until SOP.

d) NM will be sold to a larger player in the industry before SOP

Personally, I believe that a combination of b) and c) could be very likely. Though it is possible, I don't expect a buyer to step in before it has been proven that the concept works in reality.

[KingKongFong]

e) Metalloinvest and MB Holdings form a joint venture and take the company private, making a tender offer of 0.04$ USD pps for all remaining shares, after another dilution in 7 months.

(or as I like to call it, fuck the little guy)

[Seanncn]

e) Metalloinvest and MB Holdings form a joint venture and take the company private, making a tender offer of 0.04$ USD pps for all remaining shares, after another dilution in 7 months. (or as I like to call it, fuck the little guy)

If that happens what a waste of 9 years and money. Whats the percentage of that happening?

[observer]

What are the considerations that should guide the decision-making of small investors?

a) "believers": Hold. Nautilus Minerals will succeed in getting to SOP within an acceptable timeframe (</= 2.5 years), and small investors stand to benefit from that, too. After all, the company has made visible progress in recent months. Dilution may happen again, but will be (temporarily?) offset by the massive media hype and a corresponding, excessive(?) rise in the share price once the company proves its concept works.

b) "doubters" with a large investment: Sell. Past events are a guidance as to what the future has in store. Opportunity costs are unaceptably high: Other PM mining companies will do well if the POG continues to rise; the price of large oil drilling companies has dropped to historic lows etc. Another round of dilution or a buyout on unfavourable terms for small investors is unavoidable. As the company stumbles closer to SOP, all sorts of technical issues, news about mysterious mishaps, fraud etc. will likely emerge, causing fresh frustrations and delays. Hold until stock price has risen to acceptable levels, and sell everythin as fast as possible.

c) "doubters" with a small investment and a shred of hope left: Hold (part of the investment) but write the money off as a loss, for the sake of mental sanity.

d) "speculators": No matter whether the enterprise as a whole or small shareholders are fundamentally doomed or not in the "longer" term, the price will rise (and fall) again before the party is over. Good news along the way will trigger price hikes, which can be taken advantage of in the short run (to reduce previous losses)

Nautilus might be an interesting stock for cynical speculators who are emotionally detached, agile, and prepare to buy a large number of shares one day and sell them the next. Personally, I am oscillating between b) and c). I have to admit that my friends who warned me that this share was highly speculative were dead right. Yesterday's events have shown that being patient and long is no guarantee that one stands to profit from progress made on the technical/assembly front.