Classic Bonk Rubbish

[Tree]

Classic Bonk rubbish. What a joke. 'New big risk factor' is JP does not need IOC LNG??


http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=26290&tid=353927&mid=353927&tof=33&frt=2


"Basic conclusion of this extremely comprehensive study from Oxford, with report co-author Akira Miyamoto of Osaka gas, is that many estimates of LNG demand in Japan are "excessive".

That is first rate, highly honed and polished Classic Bonk rubbish spread with bias and not properly set straight. Another reason why I've kept Bonkie as my token basher.

Rubbish Bonk. Laughable too. To imply Japan does not have an insatiable appetite for LNG is pure rubbish. Yes, the facts are friendly. As you know, or should have known, it is not about increasing LNG demand it is about supplying new sources of LNG for the expiring contracts from dwindling fields which are now decades old. Japan now scours worldwide for LNG and is increasing the hunt now to include stakes in liquefaction projects. Since Japan has excess LNG storage capacity it will be no problem for them to store and re-sell to needy Asian neighbors.

Let's set the JP energy scene straight. This is old info though, last updated June 4, 2012. Sizing up of the JP energy scene. Full of facts, facts that justify why JP is all over PRL15.

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=JA

..."Many of Japan's existing LNG contracts date from the 1970s and 1980s, and are set to expire over the next decade forcing Japan to renegotiate term contracts or locate shorter term supply. Some industry analysts suggest that this is driving Japanese firms' interest in acquiring equity stakes in foreign liquefaction projects, in an effort to guarantee future supply."...

Of interest is the LNG Import section. It doesn't matter if nukes are re-fired because JP's existing LNG supplies are shrinking.

What's next?? IOC only has 30Ts nattie and Asia needs much more than that??

[jft310]

Best guess after the new drilling the estimate is IOC in 18 months will have 30 T's and 500 million barrels of oil.Hope we can make it

[bertl05]

I think at this point its time to FULLY understand that Bonk is completely out of anti IOC ammo. Both his and his friends recent posts have clearly exhibited an increasing penchant for reaching for extreme distortions. Years ago I thought that Bonk might have a reasonable point on occassion. But over the last few months I've come to view his posts as nothing more than vindictive garbage. Ignore basically.

His use of 1 opionon on the future of LNG is silly. Asia's population and middle class is exploding,,,and I mean outside Japan , China and korea. Indo, Philippines and Thailand are booming. To be followed by Viertnam , myanmar and cambodia and loas over the next 15 years.

[Palm]

Agree, the other thing to remember is that Japan and SK are building more terminals and storage capacity. They will secure all they can as a matter of national security and IF they have excess, will sell it in the spot market. The desperation grows to try and just hold IOC down long enough. Ain't going to happen.

[admin]

In his defense though, oxford energy is a respectable source and I don't think they will leave all their nuclear power decommissioned forever (or if they did, that would be capital destruction on a rather epic scale). So I do think that the present demand for LNG from Japan is inflated and it remains to be seen for how long that continues.

I never really counted on Japan as being the growth factor in LNG, the declining population might just be balanced by a slow shift towards LNG for environmental and price reasons, but Asia's growth lies mostly outside Japan.

On the other hand, there are contracts expiring and other resources drying up.

Other reports see an imbalance second half this decade, and there are also geopolitical factors weighing (ALL of Qatar's gas has to pass Hormuz, for instance, how about that).

I'm really not concerned anyway as IOC's gas should be cheaper than most other suppliers (bar Qatar), so they'll be able to sell in almost any market. So the point about Japan isn't terribly important, imo.

[jft310]

IOC NG is cheaper then the new Qatar plants.IOC is not as cheap as the older Qatar plants.IOC's cost including condensates use is 70 cents per mmbtu.Since the PM has stated "do as quick as possible" that menas EWC and FLEX are back in maybe. Not sure but they might use a Mitsui stick built plant and EWC and make all happy.If Petromin sells their portion then Shell is out as they should be.

[admin]

He has answered, but I think his first post better than his answer, to be honest. As if Japan is the only factor in the LNG market:

["Thailand and Singapore will shortly commission their first LNG-receiving terminals, to be followed by Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and possibly the Philippines. Within five years nearly all Asian countries could be importing LNG and we are seeing a similar picture in Europe, South America and the Middle East. Global LNG receiving terminal capacity was 350 million tonnes in 2005, 600 million tonnes in 2010 and could reach 950 million tonnes in 2015."] [BBC]

[Tree]

Yup Rubbish Dispenser Bonk has fallen short. His response was more limp than the original post. His arguments are either more lame than ever or JP, SK, CH, IN, INDO, MAL, Thai, VN and the rest of Asia have it very wrong in their trillion dollar pursuit of LNG and related gas infrastructure! Bonkie must be quite self-flattered in first understanding the overblown LNG requirements even more than the Asian energy planners do! Now this is risk for ennerOle!! Phil better sell and sell cheap before Jo and Ko Bama reads Bonk's rubbish!! Good thing Bonkie didn't post his thesis in Japanese!! I don't want to sound racist, but how dull can JP and SK be if they are tossing 100's of billions away on LNG when they don't really need it??

Here's a heads up on Bonk's best remaining argument. Maybe he can scare some moder-whiners by expounding on how un-green LNG is!! (And we all know how un-cool it is to be un-green!!)

..."Exporting gas vitiates even that limited value and so investing billions in LNG infrastructure is, at best, a waste of resources better utilized for deploying truly low-carbon energy."...

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06...?mobile=nc

[jft310]

Actualy Bonk's Biggie of the day was it will not be announced until Sept.Thats it thats the big stick blast of thee day. No one knows the timing .But its all he has left poor Bonkie. They think they have till Sept to cover.LOL !!The world now knows whats going on and the stock will anticipate the deal just like every drug stock does before an FDA announcement.

[Tree]

Bonkie!! Call Jobama before it's too late!!! He is fixing right quick, to keep on buying LNG he doesn't need!!!
Even Platt's has it all wrong. Maybe you should e-mail them too so they would stop spreading their JP LNG demand increase propaganda.
Huh, Platts cite the same Oxford report you did. However, they showed their LNG pumper bias with the misleading headline : "Japan's LNG demand could reach 88.7 million mt by 2020" Why can't Platt's just be helpful and unbiased like you Bonkie???
Even in a chicken little LNG world, I'd imagine IOC's $.12 at the plant gas vs. PNG LNG's $7.5 at the plant gas will somehow find it's way into the LNG market for decades to come........assuming the LNG market will exist.

**********

Japan's LNG demand could reach 88.7 million mt by 2020: report
London (Platts)--18Jun2012/524 am EDT/924 GMT

Japan's annual LNG demand is estimated to reach 82.4 million mt in 2012, up from 80.1 million mt in 2011, and could reach 88.7 million mt by 2020 if nuclear power is not restarted, a report published by Oxford Institute for Energy studies said Friday.

LNG consumption in the country has grown since the Fukushima disaster in March 2011, which saw nuclear power in the country switched off. In 2010, LNG demand was 69.8 million mt/year and increased to 80.1 million mt/year in 2011.

Restarting nuclear remains key to future LNG demand in Japan. LNG consumption levels are projected to be lower if existing nuclear power stations are restarted from 2013 and aging reactors decommissioned after 40 years. By 2013, LNG demand could drop to 73.6 million mt/year -- versus 83.3 million mt/year if nuclear is not restarted -- and by 2020 reach 81.2 million mt/year, the report said.

Prior to the Fukushima disaster, Japan used nuclear power, hydropower, and coal as its main base load power sources, with LNG power generation used as a middle to peak load power source.

According to the report, monthly LNG consumption grew by around 20% to 30% through 2011 after Fukushima and Japan has subsequently fallen out of favor with nuclear and the situation remains uncertain.

Public opinion towards nuclear has shifted too and has heightened awareness surrounding it. The report cites a survey published by Japan's Cabinet Office to demonstrate the change in opinion. In 2009 around 59.6% of respondents surveyed wanted to expand nuclear power, but by summer 2011 that number had plunged to 3%, and approx 66% wanted to reduce or decommission nuclear power. As a consequence, Japan's new energy policy is expected to reduce dependence on nuclear.

Despite this, some nuclear plants that have passed their stress tests are expected to come back online from around this summer, and LNG demand is therefore anticipated to fall.

In addition, the high level of demand is unlikely to continue in the long-term if LNG prices remain high, the report said.