• Excellent overview of what to look for in the labor market
  

Quote:On Sunday, South Africa logged 37,875 daily new infections, data from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases showed - the highest daily tally yet, exceeding the previous record of 26,485 set during the peak of the third wave in July, Bloomberg reports.

• From a couple of hundred infections to almost 38K in a matter of weeks..
  

Quote:The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 knocked one to two percentage points off China’s GDP that year, which then cost one-quarter to one-third of a percentage point in global growth, according to estimates. The larger number of infections from the coronavirus suggests the impact could be more severe this time for both China and the world. What happens in China matters more than ever for the rest of us. Its share of the global economy has surged from 8% in 2002 to 19% today, and it’s now the world’s second largest economy.

U.S. manufacturers expand at slowest pace in 15 months as business confidence wanes, IHS Markit finds - MarketWatch

The gloomy readings largely dovetailed with an official survey on Monday which showed growing strains on China’s manufacturing sector, a key source of jobs. The findings reinforce views the economy is losing more steam. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December, released on Wednesday, fell to 49.7 from 50.2 in November, marking the first contraction since May 2017. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast only a marginal dip from November to 50.1, just above the neutral 50-mark dividing expansion from contraction on a monthly basis.

China December factory activity shrinks for first time in 19 months: Caixin PMI | Reuters

The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.4 in December 2018 from 51.8 in the previous month, in line with market expectations and a preliminary estimate. The reading pointed to the slowest expansion in factory activity since February 2016, as new work declined for the third consecutive month, the greatest rate in over four years amid ongoing challenges in the auto sector and wider political and economic instabilities. Also, backlogs of work decreased for the fourth straight month and to the steepest rate since November of 2014.

Euro Area Manufacturing PMI | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

November jobs report could spark a major market sell-off: Invesco

Weaker China Adds to Risks of a Synchronized Global Slowdown

Eurozone already slowing, US also, it's getting chilly out there..

Terrific acceleration at BioLife and it's no surprise that the share price has gone parabolic. Revenue growth is accelerating, gross margins are increasing, there is a great deal of operational leverage and the company generates cash. Unfortunately, valuation is already such that we can't advice buying at this time.

BioLife Is Going Parabolic - BioLife Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLFS) | Seeking Alpha

But looking at this chart, it has come off its highs considerably and is becoming very interesting..

Profits in the financial markets require multiple skills that can locate appropriate risk vehicles, enter positions at the right time, and manage them with wisdom and a strong stomach before finally taking an exit when opportunity cost turns adverse. Many investors, market timers and traders can perform the first three tasks admirably but fail miserably when it comes time to exit positions.

Getting out at the right time isn't difficult, but it does require close observation of price action, looking for clues that may predict a large-scale reversal or trend change. This is an easier chore for short-term traders than long-term investors who have been programmed to open positions and walk away – holding firm through long cycles of buying and selling pressure. (For more, see: Exit Strategies: A Key Look.)

While buy-and-hold strategies work, adding exit timing mechanisms can yield greater profits because they address the long-developing shift from open outcry and specialist matching to algorithmic software code that seeks out price levels forcing most investors and traders to give up and exit positions. This predatory influence is likely to grow in coming years, making long-term strategies more untenable.

3 Early Warning Signs That You Should Exit a Trade | Investopedia

The article suggests three clues:

1. High volume days
2. Failed price swings
3. Moving average crosses and trend changes

Einhorn dumps Apple: Fear of 'Chinese retaliation against' US tariffs

We're surprised not more investors are worried about this. Apple has both substantial operations in China, but the Chinese market is also quite important for them so they can be hit on both sides.

Advanced Micro Devices' hot streak hit a brick wall this week. Its shares were on track for a weekly decline of more than 10 percent on Friday, their worst in a year, and on course to fall into a bear market after having dropped nearly 20 percent from 52-week highs. One chart watcher said more weakness could present an opportunity. "It's got to get a little bit more worked off," said Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, Thursday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "I like the 50-day moving average on the stock. That should be a good entry point. That provided good support back in both June and July." AMD is still a 7.5 percent drop from its 50-day moving average of $25.55. Its shares dipped below that support line during sell-offs in February and March, but held above it through the summer.

AMD, the hottest stock of the year, just fell into a bear market

We'll keep an eye on AMD.

The US is reportedly planning to raise its proposed tariff on Chinese imports to 25% from 10%. If trade tensions between the two countries worsen, companies with high sales exposure to China would be at risk, Goldman Sachs' equity strategists said.

Trump China trade war: Stocks most at risk, according to Goldman Sachs - Business Insider

Stocks could get rocked, until the Fed stops raising rates

Stocks right now are hanging by a thread, boosted by a bonanza of corporate buying unrivaled in market history and held back by a burst in investor selling that also has set a new record. Both sides are motivated by fear, as corporations find little else to do with their $2.1 trillion in cash than buy back their own shares or make deals, while individual investors head to the sidelines amid fears that a global trade war could thwart the substantial momentum the U.S. economy has seen this year.

Corporate buybacks are the only thing keeping the stock market afloat

"Corporate cash is going to find a home, and it's either going to be in buybacks, dividends or M&A activity. What it's not going to be is in capex," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. "Individuals are looking at the turbulence we've seen this year that we had not seen last year. That creates its own sort of exit sign for investors who don't want to deal with that."

Corporate buybacks are the only thing keeping the stock market afloat

The list of negatives facing the $6.6 trillion stock market is growing. The economy is already showing signs of vulnerability to a U.S. trade war before new taxes are levied at the end of this week. Analysts and investors alike are struggling to keep up with the yuan’s descent, while there’s been little sign of heavy state intervention to stem the slump in either stocks or the currency. Concern is also growing over the health of the country’s massive property market.

China's Rebound Gone Within a Day With Even Biggest Stocks Crumbling - Bloomberg

The U.S. national debt is once again raising alarm bells. Federal borrowing from outside investors expanded rapidly over the past decade, totaling more than $15 trillion in 2018, and it is projected to grow even faster over the next ten years under current law. Major budget legislation signed by President Donald J. Trump, along with continued growth in entitlements and higher interest rates, will see the debt nearly double by 2028 [PDF], coming close to the size of the entire U.S. economy.

The National Debt Dilemma | Council on Foreign Relations

No pay rises, despite 3.8% unemployment. It's good for investors as it keeps corporate profits up and the Fed happy, but how can it be?

[E]xecutives of big U.S. companies suggest that the days of most people getting a pay raise are over …. [In] rare, candid and bracing talk from executives atop corporate America, made at a conference Thursday at the Dallas Fed[, t]he message [wa]s that Americans should stop waiting for across-the-board pay hikes coinciding with higher corporate profit …. to cash in, workers will need to shift to higher-skilled jobs that command more income. ….The moderator asked the panel whether there would be broad-based wage gains again. “It’s just not going to happen,” [Troy] Taylor, [CEO of the Coke franchise for Florida,] said. The gains would go mostly to technically-skilled employees, he said. As for a general raise? “Absolutely not in my business,” he said.

More Evidence of Increasing Deflationary Pressure on Wages | naked capitalism

“How should I deal with my wife who is the complete opposite of frugal and refuses to listen to anything I have to say?” this disgruntled husband asked Reddit. “My wife thinks I’m obsessed with money. However, as an accountant I have a pretty good idea where our finances are going and I think we will be in a great spot within the next 10 years.” This man is starting early: He’s only 25. “I want us as a family to have the money to go places, do things and enjoy life,” he adds. “I like to have a cushion so if something comes up ...we can do it no questions asked. I’d rather spend money on experiences and enjoying life. My wife, on the other hand, wants new cars, big houses and stuff. I feel she doesn’t understand how expensive things are.”

‘I want to enjoy life and go places — my wife wants new cars and big houses’ - MarketWatch

Very relevant question, the best earnings quarter in a quarter century fails to lift stocks. Why?

By at least one measure, corporate earnings are the best in nearly a quarter-century. However, the stock market is not enthused! Rather than rally on the back of upbeat results, the main equity benchmarks have sulked lower. According to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, of the 343 companies, or about 70%, of S&P 500 members that have reported earnings to date, 79.9% have reported earnings per share that were above analysts’ expectations, putting the season on track for the highest earnings beat rate on record, going back to 1994.

Why the stock market is unimpressed by the best first-quarter results in 24 years - MarketWatch