There are compelling reasons to assume that the U.S. goals in the trade dispute with China go way beyond just trade. The real goal is likely to slow the economic and technological rise of its main economic rival. With this becoming clearer and with recent escalations, there is no easy way out and the Trump […]
June 1st, 2019 · Comments Off on Tariff Man Strikes Again
May 19th, 2019 · Comments Off on The Real Risk Of The Trade War
It is difficult to see the Chinese caving to the demands of the Trump government, which seem to involve a wholesale change of China’s economic model. Either some middle ground is found or we risk a serious escalation with multiple risks to the state of the world economy, with many known and unknown facilities. The […]
January 2nd, 2019 · Comments Off on What Trade War Are We Having Will Determine What Happens To The Markets
Either President Trump wants to be able to announce a victory, or we are witnessing the first innings of a hegemonic clash between the existing and rising superpower. If the first scenario is correct, we could have a deal pretty soon, which might still arrive in time to revive the markets before the rot sets […]
September 25th, 2018 · Comments Off on The U.S. Is Ignoring The Progress China Has Made
China has a reputation for being a currency manipulator, having mercantilist trade practices, glaring disrespect for IP and depending on exports for growth. While these things were all true in the recent past, today much of this doesn’t hold much water anymore and in other fields there have been real improvements. Denying this progress and […]
September 14th, 2018 · Comments Off on What Does The U.S. Want From China?
The US government wants the Chinese to respect US intellectual property and a lower bilateral trade deficit. Unleashing a trade war isn’t likely to bring these goals closer, in fact it could very well result in the opposite. It risks doing great damage to the US and world economy and denies the considerable progress China […]
July 25th, 2018 · Comments Off on Crisis In China?
The Chinese economy is already slowing down, its stock market is crashing, its currency sinking and authorities are cracking down on leverage. And on top of that the US has imposed tariffs on some Chinese exports and is threatening to greatly escalate this program. Given the capital flight and the stock market crash, one is […]
July 6th, 2018 · Comments Off on Can China Withstand A Trade War?
Trade tensions are escalating between the US and China, and Trump argues that the US can’t lose. The Chinese economy is vulnerable at the moment, plagued by large debts which authorities are attempting to reign in and a worsening emerging market climate. The US government might be tempted to think that, given this weakness, China […]
July 2nd, 2018 · Comments Off on The Chinese Strikeback
The US President thinks the US can easily win a trade war with China as they export much more to the US than vice versa. While that is true, retaliatory tariffs are hardly the only way the Chinese can strike back, we describe four alternatives. Some of these could have significant consequences for specific US […]
April 22nd, 2018 · Comments Off on Chinese Tech Increasingly A Match For U.S. Big Tech. Should We Worry?
The rise of Chinese high-tech companies has produced the specter of Chinese domination of the industries of the future. While it is true that many high-tech Chinese companies have caught up with their US counterparts, any domination is far from a given. And there is actually much less to fear. While companies compete with one […]
December 25th, 2017 · Comments Off on A Chinese Lost Decade?
The Chinese economy is facing three secular headwinds that conspire to slow its economic growth considerably. Demographics are turning from a tailwind to a headwind and diminishing returns of the credit led boom have already set in. The necessary deleveraging process isn’t likely to produce a financial implosion, but it will slow growth significantly and […]