Brexit exhaustion led the new PM Boris Johnson to force the issue, but his efforts resulted in a backlash complicating things once again. Part of the collateral damage is that the Ulster DUP is no longer necessary to prop up the Johnson government, which has opened up the perspective of a negotiated exit. This is […]
Brexit Exhaustion Brings A Binary Event And A Long Straddle Option Strategy Into Focus
September 16th, 2019 · Comments Off on Brexit Exhaustion Brings A Binary Event And A Long Straddle Option Strategy Into Focus
Tags: currencies · Economy
The New Currency Wars
July 20th, 2019 · Comments Off on The New Currency Wars
The trade war threatens a zero-sum game of tit-for-tat race to the bottom in which everybody will be worse off. The tariffs have put upward pressure on the dollar which is taken as a clue for ‘currency manipulation’ and risk setting off a second zero-sum race to the bottom. The post-war international economic order on […]
Tags: currencies
The Dollar Is Sick
August 5th, 2017 · Comments Off on The Dollar Is Sick
The dollar has fallen surprising fast against the euro, and the end of that doesn’t seem in sight just yet. The timing and speed of the fall is at least in part curious from an economic point of view as interest rates and bond yields still favor the US. We can’t exclude a modicum of […]
Tags: currencies
Germany Is The New China
February 25th, 2017 · Comments Off on Germany Is The New China
Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro complains about an unfair competitive advantage for Germany. He has a point, and this has much to do with the internal workings of the eurozone. There are signs some of it might be unwinding, and the ECB might be forced to remove stimulus, which will boost the euro. We think […]
Tags: currencies · Germany
Trump Versus The Dollar, Round 2
February 18th, 2017 · Comments Off on Trump Versus The Dollar, Round 2
President Trump has argued that the dollar is too strong, and he does have a point. A strong dollar is bad for US exports and corporate earnings, but there are also other ramifications. The problem is, there doesn’t seem to be much he can do about it. Trump Versus The Dollar, Round 2
Tags: currencies · Trump
A Rampant Dollar Could Crash The World Economy
December 17th, 2016 · Comments Off on A Rampant Dollar Could Crash The World Economy
Tags: currencies · Economy
Trump Versus The Dollar, Round One
December 12th, 2016 · Comments Off on Trump Versus The Dollar, Round One
Tags: currencies
Should China Simply Devalue?
May 11th, 2016 · Comments Off on Should China Simply Devalue?
Tags: China · currencies
Chinese Currency Manipulation? | Seeking Alpha
January 13th, 2016 · Comments Off on Chinese Currency Manipulation? | Seeking Alpha
It is an article of faith in some quarters that China manipulates its currency to gain an unfair advantage. China indeed does ‘manipulate’ its currency in the sense that it intervenes heavily in the foreign exchange markets. However, the objectives and effects are quite different from what those who accuse China of currency manipulation argue. […]
Tags: China · currencies
Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong
June 29th, 2015 · Comments Off on Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong
While the dollar is rallying strongly, some Austrian economist keep on predicting a dollar crash. That dollar crash not happening isn’t the only empirical problem with these kind of economic approaches. When economic approaches can’t explain significant parts of the world, one should take their predictions with some pinch of salt. Source: Austrian Dollar Bears […]
Tags: currencies