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Brexit Exhaustion Brings A Binary Event And A Long Straddle Option Strategy Into Focus

September 16th, 2019 · Comments Off on Brexit Exhaustion Brings A Binary Event And A Long Straddle Option Strategy Into Focus

Brexit exhaustion led the new PM Boris Johnson to force the issue, but his efforts resulted in a backlash complicating things once again. Part of the collateral damage is that the Ulster DUP is no longer necessary to prop up the Johnson government, which has opened up the perspective of a negotiated exit. This is […]

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Tags: currencies · Economy

The New Currency Wars

July 20th, 2019 · Comments Off on The New Currency Wars

The trade war threatens a zero-sum game of tit-for-tat race to the bottom in which everybody will be worse off. The tariffs have put upward pressure on the dollar which is taken as a clue for ‘currency manipulation’ and risk setting off a second zero-sum race to the bottom. The post-war international economic order on […]

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Tags: currencies

The Dollar Is Sick

August 5th, 2017 · Comments Off on The Dollar Is Sick

The dollar has fallen surprising fast against the euro, and the end of that doesn’t seem in sight just yet. The timing and speed of the fall is at least in part curious from an economic point of view as interest rates and bond yields still favor the US. We can’t exclude a modicum of […]

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Tags: currencies

Germany Is The New China

February 25th, 2017 · Comments Off on Germany Is The New China

Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro complains about an unfair competitive advantage for Germany. He has a point, and this has much to do with the internal workings of the eurozone. There are signs some of it might be unwinding, and the ECB might be forced to remove stimulus, which will boost the euro. We think […]

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Tags: currencies · Germany

Trump Versus The Dollar, Round 2

February 18th, 2017 · Comments Off on Trump Versus The Dollar, Round 2

President Trump has argued that the dollar is too strong, and he does have a point. A strong dollar is bad for US exports and corporate earnings, but there are also other ramifications. The problem is, there doesn’t seem to be much he can do about it. Trump Versus The Dollar, Round 2

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Tags: currencies · Trump

A Rampant Dollar Could Crash The World Economy

December 17th, 2016 · Comments Off on A Rampant Dollar Could Crash The World Economy

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Tags: currencies · Economy

Trump Versus The Dollar, Round One

December 12th, 2016 · Comments Off on Trump Versus The Dollar, Round One

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Tags: currencies

Should China Simply Devalue?

May 11th, 2016 · Comments Off on Should China Simply Devalue?

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Tags: China · currencies

Chinese Currency Manipulation? | Seeking Alpha

January 13th, 2016 · Comments Off on Chinese Currency Manipulation? | Seeking Alpha

It is an article of faith in some quarters that China manipulates its currency to gain an unfair advantage. China indeed does ‘manipulate’ its currency in the sense that it intervenes heavily in the foreign exchange markets. However, the objectives and effects are quite different from what those who accuse China of currency manipulation argue. […]

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Tags: China · currencies

Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong

June 29th, 2015 · Comments Off on Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong

While the dollar is rallying strongly, some Austrian economist keep on predicting a dollar crash. That dollar crash not happening isn’t the only empirical problem with these kind of economic approaches. When economic approaches can’t explain significant parts of the world, one should take their predictions with some pinch of salt. Source: Austrian Dollar Bears […]

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Tags: currencies