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Morgan Stanley on InterOil

September 18th, 2009 · 24 Comments

Things are heating up! Enjoy people


Tags: IOC · Research Reports

24 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Darcy Patten // Sep 18, 2009 at 6:47 pm

    STP, I would once again like to extend my gratitude and thanx for you efforts over the past 18 months.

    I hope you are feeling a high level of satisfaction and fulfillment as all your hard work is being validated by the “so called experts” in the industry.


  • 2 Kurt // Sep 18, 2009 at 9:02 pm

    A somewhat off-topic question: I recently read about a volcano in PNG where 40 new species were discovered.

    Could this “green” discovery could have an impact on IOC’s future?

    Thank you,


  • 3 Harold Chamberlin // Sep 19, 2009 at 1:36 am

    STP, I second Darcy’s comments. Thank you, you were steadfast, and determined . Your efforts amazed me. The time you took to research and study this company was second to none. You should feel very proud of yourself. Humbly yours, Harry.

  • 4 JoEllen // Sep 19, 2009 at 1:47 am

    STP your unwavering, steady confidence in IOC, combined with your tireless work ethic exhibited by the many messages kept me on the course and in IOC. The messages you fired back at Sirota, Antar, and Barry kept them from taking over and then were a major role in getting them off the board.
    Great work! You are a warrior!

  • 5 rory mcgowan // Sep 19, 2009 at 2:50 am

    stp I hope you had your largest long postion on today. I know some people who were waiting until the drilling resumed.

  • 6 admin // Sep 19, 2009 at 5:02 am

    Thank you all!

    Kurt, I hope they’ll save that vulcano, but it’s not on IOC’s license territory.

  • 7 bob // Sep 19, 2009 at 2:59 pm

    wow, what a couple days! hopefully wayne has a couple other majors convinced to initate coverage too. Good luck to all with the A2 DST and thanks to STP’s steadfast desire to fight the manipulating shorts.

  • 8 Jeff // Sep 20, 2009 at 4:07 pm

    My favorite line of the Morgan Stanley report can be found on page 3:

    “We currently assign no value for additional exploration
    nor any resource expansion from Antelope-2.”

    Cha-Ching! If Ant-2 is a success, using their own model, MS will have to upgrade their target to over 100 dollars per share!

  • 9 Darcy Patten // Sep 20, 2009 at 8:37 pm

    I completely concur Jeff. It looks to me that the report has one starting risk point, hitting pay with Ant 2, and all other risks are based upon the success/failure of this event.

    Given that we have found the top of the reef and some previous comments from PetEngr, I think it is highly likely that we hit pay at Ant 2, so I believe the MS risk comment on Ant 2 is irrelevant.

    Was it coincidence that MS released their report the day after IOC confirmed hitting the reef? Or is it possibly they waited for that event to substantially derisk their own report?

  • 10 Jeff // Sep 20, 2009 at 8:41 pm

    Good point Darcy, I had not thought about the timing issue with regards to WHEN Morgan Stanley released the report…. I fully agree with your other statements about the other risks being tied back to ANT-2.

    Let’s hope we have it… if we do, we’re all rich!

  • 11 Janine // Sep 21, 2009 at 4:17 am

    Ant #2 will be huge for the company. Ant#4 will be the crown jewel for shareholders. Be patient with shares.

  • 12 Jeff // Sep 21, 2009 at 6:02 am

    Janine, please explain. Your words carry a lot of weight with US investors. I though ANT-3 and ANT-4 were to be backfill wells… meaning between ANT-1 and ANT-2, how can a well between #1 and #2 be the crown jewel?

    Thanks in advance.

  • 13 Darcy Patten // Sep 21, 2009 at 6:22 am

    Hey Jeff, I think what Janine is aluding to can be determined from a common slide in all of IOC’s recent presentations.

    If you open: and go to page 12 you will see a 3D representation of the Antelope structure. If you look where Ant 1 and Ant 2 are drilled you will notice that they are not at the peak of the 3D formation.

    I assume that Janine is saying that Ant 4 will be drilled to the right of Ant 2 and that looks to be where the absolute thickest part of the reef is. Sooo it looks like we might get an even bigger vertical section of pay at Ant 4, perhaps as a wild guess, 3/4 of a mile of pay.

    In any event, I cannot take credit for this observation, as PetEngr from the Yahoo boards pointed this out in a post a few months back.

  • 14 Roger // Sep 21, 2009 at 8:22 am


    To take Darcy’s explanation one step further. Ant 4 is rumored to be the first partnered drilling well.

    If Ant 2 plays out the way we’ve envisioned things are about to get very very interesting.

    Good luck to all.

  • 15 Darcy Patten // Sep 21, 2009 at 6:20 pm

    Janine, a question if I may. If we hit oil at Ant 2, and I recognize this comes with noticeable risk, I just don’t see how Ant 4 could the crown jewel.

    If we find oil in commercial quantities any subsequent NG hits in the Ant structure will be icing on the cake in my opinion, even if the finds reach down to the center of the earth 😉

    BTW, thanx for your posts as as they help me get through these periods of tardy and non juicy news releases. Next 2 weeks are going to be crazy exciting.


  • 16 Janine // Sep 24, 2009 at 12:40 am

    Darcy: That would be a nice problem to have… Have been told for along time that the company was saving ant#4 for the 1st farmout with a partner.Also, Ant#4 should be in the center of the formation thus…. Rig coming late Nov/early Dec. Huge meeting in Singapore in a couple of weeks. Alot of players looking to get this deal done will be present.Maybe Stripping plant news after this meeting. 2 more major houses starting coverage soon.

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    […] Janine: Darcy: That would be a nice pr […]

  • 18 Darcy Patten // Sep 25, 2009 at 7:05 pm

    Thanx Janine, there is some nice juicy tidbits in that post!

    *rubs hands furiously together*

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