Rally in Solar Stocks

Finally the price wars seem to be coming to an end…
Solar Stocks Rally As Yingli Forecasts Stable Pricing

By Eric Savitz

Solar stocks are flying today after some bullish comments Friday on pricing in the solar sector by Yingli Green Energy (YGE) CFO Bryan Li on the company’s Q3 conference call on Friday. Li said he expects Q4 average solar products pricing to be flat to down slightly in Q4 from Q3, with flat to up pricing in Q1 of next year.

Merrill Lynch/Bank of America analyst Lu Yeung wrote in a Friday research note that the ASP forecast “bodes well for the broader industry group.”

Barclays Capital Vishal Shah likewise noted in a report today that the comments from YGE management suggest that “the price war in the solar industry may be temporarily over.” He added that while weather, Germain feed-in-tariff reductions and development of non-German markets will be important in how 2010 plays out, “YGE’s comments increase the prospects of potential upward earnings revisions for the sector in the near term.”

Janney Capital Markets analyst John Roy today upped his rating on on YGE to Buy from Neutral, “as the outlook for pricing and thus margins have improved.” He contends that “Yingli is a major price setter, and they are guiding to a more benign pricing environment in 2010.” He adds that “there is other evidence that prices are beginning to stabilize,” and that the trend should continue.

Ergo, most solar stocks are sharply higher:

  • Suntech (STP) is up $1.75, or 12.8%, to $15.47.
  • Sunpower (SPWRA) is up 63 cents, or 2.4%, to $27.05.
  • Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is up 74 cents, or 4%, to $19.19.
  • Yingli is up 54 cents, or 4%, to $13.99.
  • First Solar (FSLR) is up $4.74, or 4%, to $123.04.
  • Evergreen Solar (ESLR) is up 8 cents, or 5.4%, to $1.56.
  • LDK Solar (LDK) is up 58 cents, or 9.1%, to $6.97.

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And then there is this:

Photovoltaic power generation project in China 20 billion yuan subsidy
Chinese Ministry of Finance last Friday that in order to accelerate the implementation of the “Golden Sun” demonstration projects to speed up the industrialization of the domestic photovoltaic power generation and large-scale development, and will arrange for 294 photovoltaic power generation demonstration projects, a preliminary estimate total project investment of nearly 20 billion yuan yuan (about 3 billion U.S. dollars).

Chinese Ministry of Finance said earlier that China’s grid-connected photovoltaic power generation project in principle, by photovoltaic power generation system and its supporting transmission and distribution projects 50% of the total investment to give grants to accelerate the industrialization of China’s domestic photovoltaic power generation and scale development . This will be by the Chinese Ministry of Finance, Science and Technology, National Energy Board launched a joint program called “Golden Sun” demonstration project.

Chinese Ministry of Finance Web site Friday, said publication of the notice of this grant the project the total size of installed generating 642 MW, generating about 1 billion kwh year, plans to use 2-3 years to complete.