7 thoughts on “Morgan Stanley on InterOil December1”
STP —
Your hard work is greatly admired and appreciated!
Thanks JoEllen, we appreciate that.
STP, I am not sure you know how convenient and helpful it is get access to the reports so quickly. Thanks for all the hard work and I hope to return the favor some day.
I have a hard time understanding how big Antelope really is, therefore my favourite quote from the report:
“For frame of reference, this represents almost 70% of the estimated 1.0 bcf/d of feed gas that the entire two-train LNG facility will require at its peak.”
If they opened up the choke 100%, this well alone could likely feed the entire two-train LNG facility all by itself. Now if that doesn’t put into perspective the gargantuum size of this resource….hmmphh…….
hmmm, thinking a little further on my above post. If a choke open 4 3/8 inches gives a flow rate that could feed 70% of a two train LNG facility, then it isn’t much of a stretch to assume a wide open hole could feed 100% of the 2 train facility.
Now I believe that Ant 1 is comparable to Ant 2. The numbers were different only because the choke was open 3 1/2 inches instead of 4 3/8. Therefore if you adjust the Ant 1 flow rate based upon the Ant 2 choke size, isn’t it conceivable that Ant 1 could also feed 100% of a two train facility?
That adds up to 4 trains out of 2 wells, LOL!
Now, IF, Ant 3 and 4 have similar flow rates, and why wouldn’t they as the reservoir has similar characteristics 2.3 miles apart, you could also guess that they could both individually support 2 trains a piece. Then you get 8 trains support from Antelope??!! HOLY MOLY!!
I understand that all the above is SPECULATIVE and I am taking some huge leaps but I don’t think this is out of the realm of possibility and is perhaps closer to probable. Time will tell.
So much for getting any work done today. Peace!
Darcy,
I understand your enthusiasm but those flow rates are way to high for normal operation.
Perhaps dangerously so…
Still great great news today.
I’m excited!!!!
Roger, I slightly disagree. For now IOC has a 2 train LNG plant planned for start of production in 2015. At some point in time, if they keep finding more gas, they will add on additional trains. Lets say 3 more by 2020 and lets assume that all that gas comes from Antelope.
There is only going to be one pipeline coming from the Antelope structure to Port Moresby and that single pipeline is going to have to contain enough feed to support 5 trains which is going to require approx 5000 mmcf/d. So, that flow might be dangerous, but they will put equipement in place to manage that danger.
In any event I do believe you are correct, they are going to drill more than 4 wells to supply the plant and since I don’t know squat about the design of such an infrastructure, I am going to end my speculation at that.
The point of my post was more to highlight how really, really, and one more really big the antelope structure is.
STP —
Your hard work is greatly admired and appreciated!
Thanks JoEllen, we appreciate that.
STP, I am not sure you know how convenient and helpful it is get access to the reports so quickly. Thanks for all the hard work and I hope to return the favor some day.
I have a hard time understanding how big Antelope really is, therefore my favourite quote from the report:
“For frame of reference, this represents almost 70% of the estimated 1.0 bcf/d of feed gas that the entire two-train LNG facility will require at its peak.”
If they opened up the choke 100%, this well alone could likely feed the entire two-train LNG facility all by itself. Now if that doesn’t put into perspective the gargantuum size of this resource….hmmphh…….
hmmm, thinking a little further on my above post. If a choke open 4 3/8 inches gives a flow rate that could feed 70% of a two train LNG facility, then it isn’t much of a stretch to assume a wide open hole could feed 100% of the 2 train facility.
Now I believe that Ant 1 is comparable to Ant 2. The numbers were different only because the choke was open 3 1/2 inches instead of 4 3/8. Therefore if you adjust the Ant 1 flow rate based upon the Ant 2 choke size, isn’t it conceivable that Ant 1 could also feed 100% of a two train facility?
That adds up to 4 trains out of 2 wells, LOL!
Now, IF, Ant 3 and 4 have similar flow rates, and why wouldn’t they as the reservoir has similar characteristics 2.3 miles apart, you could also guess that they could both individually support 2 trains a piece. Then you get 8 trains support from Antelope??!! HOLY MOLY!!
I understand that all the above is SPECULATIVE and I am taking some huge leaps but I don’t think this is out of the realm of possibility and is perhaps closer to probable. Time will tell.
So much for getting any work done today. Peace!
Darcy,
I understand your enthusiasm but those flow rates are way to high for normal operation.
Perhaps dangerously so…
Still great great news today.
I’m excited!!!!
Roger, I slightly disagree. For now IOC has a 2 train LNG plant planned for start of production in 2015. At some point in time, if they keep finding more gas, they will add on additional trains. Lets say 3 more by 2020 and lets assume that all that gas comes from Antelope.
There is only going to be one pipeline coming from the Antelope structure to Port Moresby and that single pipeline is going to have to contain enough feed to support 5 trains which is going to require approx 5000 mmcf/d. So, that flow might be dangerous, but they will put equipement in place to manage that danger.
In any event I do believe you are correct, they are going to drill more than 4 wells to supply the plant and since I don’t know squat about the design of such an infrastructure, I am going to end my speculation at that.
The point of my post was more to highlight how really, really, and one more really big the antelope structure is.