Interesting!
Here is that chart:
You’ll see that:
- It’s hanging on double support level, but only just
- It’s down really substantially in a very short time
So what’s the matter? Here’s a DOY research kit:
- The company announced rather stellar Q2 results on July 26, handily beating both top ban bottom line estimates, and more importantly, increasing guidance.
- Which led two analysts (BofA/Merrill and UBS) to raise target to $65 and $60 respectively.
- See the general analyst outlook here (and here)
- But then, the rot started to set in, there was news of the Taiwanese flat pannel (display) makers cutting back orders to the LED sector
- Bill Luby was brave enough to buy and reason why (but see the comment from dagibear at the end for the bear case)
- Sell-off continuing despite new orders on Aug 12
- And a backlog of orders of $597M at the end of June 2010 (see p17 of 10-Q)
- They themselves had this to say: “We currently believe that the third quarter will be another strong order quarter for our MOCVD business. In particular, China’s initiative to subsidize the HBLED industry via seven national ‘industrial parks’ is spurring strong order quoting patterns for Veeco, both from Chinese entities as well as from Korean and Taiwanese customers that are partnering with Chinese entities. We believe the HB LED industry is at the beginning of a multi-year MOCVD investment cycle as HB LEDs increase their penetration in laptop and TV back lighting and gain momentum for general illumination.” [10-Q p17]
- There was LED leader CREE beating Q4 profits but guiding Q1 revenues just a tad lower, having a disproportional impact
- Two investor presentations by the company don’t seem to have allayed fears
- There is a very useful background article on the LED sector from Morningstar
- And another one from Forbes
- The sectors are pretty cyclical, something to keep in mind
- It has also a foot in the fledgling solar industry
- Q2-2010 10-Q Filing
- Short interest, 9.69M out of 40.37M float per 7/30/2010
- $414.88M cash ($10.15 per share); Total debt $102.57M

One thought on “VECO chart: what happens next?”
Comments are closed.