The $64,000 question..
We stress we don’t know, but piecing a few things together:
1) Morgan Stanley came with a trading idea on Aug4, arguing they expect the price to rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days, citing a number of catalysts.
2) There were references in the CC which could be interpreted as such
3) Then there was the following perspective from an otherwise very knowledgeable poster:
Now here is some bonus information that you didn’t ask for and you really don’t want. I believe all of the recent talk about getting Government approval to make Antelope-2 a producing well is a subterfuge. This horizontal hole right on top of the water contact is not the ideal place for a producing well. I know we have been trying to get the high liquid content gas from as deep in the reservoir as practical but to think we are going to produce a very high volume of gas from a horizontal hole right above that gas/water contact without producing a lot a water in probably asking for too much. As the gas is produced the water contact will cone up to the producing well bore and water production will commence. This will cause us to have to drill another horizontal hole at a higher level to get away from the water for long term production.
I think the reason for asking for approval from the Government to make this a production well was to put pressure on the Government to issue approval of our application for a PDL. I think our prospective Strategic Partner wanted this. IOC probably had to inform the Government that the lack of a PDL is holding up progress on the sell down and; therefore, the development of the field, LNG plant etc. I hope the PDL will be forthcoming in the near future. The Government is probably still dragging their feet on issuing the PDL because when the PDL is issued I think Petromin is suppose to pay IOC for their share of all sunk costs for the development of Elk/Antelope Field.
4) Today’s share price action, for what it’s worth, is also quite remarkable, an the shares have firmed very significantly the last two months or so.
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