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Somebody is sticking his neck out

January 30th, 2011 · No Comments

Always good to see. Theme is the effect of Egypt on the markets. No need for panic (yet?)…
This from David Moenning

We would also like to point out that the so-called flight-to-quality trade, while clearly in play on Friday, did not suggest that anything of significant magnitude was occurring on Friday. For example, take a look at the charts of gold and the 10-year T-Bond.

While it is true that gold was up and bond yields were down, neither made a meaningful move. So, traders in these markets were not exactly in panic mode Friday. Had these markets believed something meaningful was happening that would affect the rest of the world’s financial system, the bottom line is we would have seen a more substantial move in both.

Finally, unrest in the Middle East is not new. And history shows that these types of events tend to die down given a little time. So, while there may be some headline risk over the weekend, we’re of the mind that unless something truly ugly happens between Friday and Monday morning, the dip buyers are likely to return early next week.

Indeed. There is a caveat in our view though. Things could get worse. At the moment of writing, still no sign of the military using live ammunition, so the jury is still out. If they manage to brutally quell the protests, that would actually be good for the markets (if not for Egypt, needless to say). If there is a smooth transition of power to a more liberal regime, that would both be good for Egypt and the markets

Only chaos (on which more radical elements, like the well organized Muslim Brotherhood could thrive) would be bad for the markets.

Tags: Politics