The Labor Market Is Not The Source Of Inflation
For inflation to become ingrained, we need inflationary expectations to blow up and cause a wage-price spiral to take hold. Decades of losing bargaining power are making the labor market […]
Why A 1970s Style Stagflation Is Unlikely
A US recession is becoming ever more likely in the face of demand destruction from multiple sources (policy, real wages, stock market, consumer sentiment, etc.). However, this is likely to […]
A Failure Of Epic Proportions
Most Western democracies fumbled in their response to the coronavirus outbreak despite having two months to prepare. A number of Asian countries have shown that it was possible to nip […]
The Mother Of All Cash Flow Retreats
With corporate debt levels higher than before the financial crisis and the quality of much of this pretty low, the last we need is a sudden retreat in cash flow. […]
A Recession Is Looming
It seems reasonable to assume that the coronavirus outbreak is morphing into a global pandemic and that the US will not be spared from community spreading. This will compound the […]
Brexit Exhaustion Brings A Binary Event And A Long Straddle Option Strategy Into Focus
Brexit exhaustion led the new PM Boris Johnson to force the issue, but his efforts resulted in a backlash complicating things once again. Part of the collateral damage is that […]
Ever-Higher Debt
There has been a remarkable turnaround in the perception of the dangers of public deficits and debts. This has gone from extreme alarm at the beginning of the decade towards […]
When A Country Doesn’t Trust Its Own Money
Argentina’s biggest economic problem is the lack of credibility of its currency. At the first sign of trouble, it tends to plunge. A peso plunge is liable to set all […]
Sensible European Populism
The economic and political situation in Europe is deteriorating pretty alarmingly, stocks are close to, or already in a bear market. Economically, there is the threat of a return of […]
Peak Economy, Peak Earnings
The tax cuts produced a boom in economic growth, but the effects look set to peter out. The tax cuts also unleashed some headwinds that could gather force, like rising […]