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Entries Tagged as 'The Markets'

Bulls Vs. Bears, What Data To Watch Out For

April 20th, 2020 · Comments Off on Bulls Vs. Bears, What Data To Watch Out For

There is a sharp division between bulls and bears. The first argue the markets have already seen the lows, and the latter argue much worse is to come. They look at all kinds of data, economic data, historical data, financial data, technical market data, etc. All useful, but partial in our view. The most important […]

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Tags: The Markets

Emerging Market Crisis Is Looming

April 14th, 2020 · Comments Off on Emerging Market Crisis Is Looming

After having hit much of Asia, a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak is hitting the EU and the US, with a slump in world economic growth as a result. This is the backdrop for many emerging markets which are about to be hit by the pandemic. They are much less well equipped to deal […]

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Tags: Emerging Markets

Investing In A Minefield

April 6th, 2020 · Comments Off on Investing In A Minefield

Things are getting to get worse, likely to be a lot worse. The U.S. is now passed the containment phase. The next phase is limiting the spread which necessitates much more economically costly measures, compounding the damage coming from abroad. The immediate worries should be the risk of the healthcare system getting overrun. Given the […]

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Tags: The Markets

Stress In The Financial System

April 6th, 2020 · Comments Off on Stress In The Financial System

With the exception of US bank balance sheets, the financial system is all that much more robust than it was at the outset of the financial crisis, in our view. Problems center mostly on the quality and quantity of outstanding corporate debt. Stress signs are already emerging, and we know from a decade ago that […]

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Tags: The Markets

Unanswered Coronavirus Questions, Now Is Not The Time For Heroics

March 5th, 2020 · Comments Off on Unanswered Coronavirus Questions, Now Is Not The Time For Heroics

The good news is that the situation in China is improving albeit at exorbitant economic cost, and the virus spreads mostly through family. However, experiences from South Korea show that under unfortunate conditions, few infected people can wreak havoc. On a world scale, we’re only as strong as the weakest links, and there are many […]

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Tags: The Markets

Misplaced Market Euphoria

February 5th, 2020 · Comments Off on Misplaced Market Euphoria

There is still a lot we don’t know about the spread of the coronavirus, and with that, the economic impact of the measures aimed to contain it. With large parts of the second-largest economy in lockdown, this is going to produce a significant shock to the Chinese and, by extension, the world economy. Nobody knows […]

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Tags: The Markets

Argentinian Shares Are Very Cheap, But Big Risks Remain

September 4th, 2019 · Comments Off on Argentinian Shares Are Very Cheap, But Big Risks Remain

A dire economic situation with a shrinking economy and serious inflation was already buffeting the Argentinian stock market, but this became dramatic after a surprise election loss of the government. Recent measures by the government like capital controls can stabilize the situation and give a lift to shares. However, it remains very much to be […]

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Tags: Emerging Markets

Tariff Man Strikes Again

June 1st, 2019 · Comments Off on Tariff Man Strikes Again

There are compelling reasons to assume that the U.S. goals in the trade dispute with China go way beyond just trade. The real goal is likely to slow the economic and technological rise of its main economic rival. With this becoming clearer and with recent escalations, there is no easy way out and the Trump […]

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Tags: China · Trade

The Fed Hasn’t Blown Another Asset Bubble

April 27th, 2019 · Comments Off on The Fed Hasn’t Blown Another Asset Bubble

Investors feel whiplashed by the Fed, but while this is understandable, this isn’t necessarily justified as financial markets are a bit of a side show for the Fed. The Fed is also accused of having blown another asset bubble, but it is even debatable whether there is an asset bubble, let alone the Fed being […]

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Tags: Monetary policy · The Markets

What Trade War Are We Having Will Determine What Happens To The Markets

January 2nd, 2019 · Comments Off on What Trade War Are We Having Will Determine What Happens To The Markets

Either President Trump wants to be able to announce a victory, or we are witnessing the first innings of a hegemonic clash between the existing and rising superpower. If the first scenario is correct, we could have a deal pretty soon, which might still arrive in time to revive the markets before the rot sets […]

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Tags: China · Trade