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RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-01-2017

Oil prices slipped on Thursday, backing off from earlier gains spurred by tension around northern Iraq following the Kurdistan region's vote in favor of independence. Crude has risen sharply in the last two-and-a-half weeks, in anticipation of renewed demand from U.S. refiners in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, and expectations for ongoing efforts by major world producers to limit supply.

Oil prices fall as crude nears overbought territory

A recent rise for the price of oil could be set to continue, according to one commodities analyst, who believes there is now a "real rebalancing" in the market. "The fundamentals are changing and the market is rebalancing," Jodie Gunzberg, head of commodity and real asset indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices, told CNBC Wednesday. This support is coming from several sources, including OPEC whose members are complying with production cuts and China where there is demand growth, according to Gunzberg.

Oil shortages could push prices all the way to $80, commodities expert says

Sentiment is often a somewhat flighty and nebulous concept, but it appears that crude oil markets are turning increasingly bullish about the prospect for higher prices. Certainly the mood at this week’s major industry conference in Singapore was a marked change from recent years, with several upbeat presentations, panel discussions and off-the-record chats giving the view that prices were more likely to rise than fall.

COLUMN-Crude oil markets show how to be bullish, but not really: Russell

Middle East OPEC producers are concerned weak demand and excess supply in the first quarter of 2018 may undermine an oil price rally that has pushed Brent crude about 30 percent higher since June, OPEC and industry sources said. Supply cuts since Jan. 1 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers helped lift prices, while Hurricane Harvey added to gains when it knocked out nearly a quarter of U.S. refining capacity.

Mideast OPEC producers fret oil price rally may burn out




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-02-2017

Senate Republicans set the stage for using the budget to end the 37-year ban on oil and gas drilling in Alaska’s pristine Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. A provision in the budget resolution, released Friday, tells the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee to come up with $1 billion in savings over 10 years. That mandate is the first legislative step necessary for Congress to approve drilling in the preserve, known as ANWR, without the threat of a Democratic filibuster.

Senate Republicans set the stage to unlock 12 Bbbl of oil in Alaska refuge

Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who’s shorting shale driller Continental Resources Inc., said independent explorers have been a bad deal for shareholders because they rely on quickly depleting assets. Shale oil producers “are creatures of the capital markets,” Chanos told Bloomberg TV’s Julia Chatterley, Joe Weisenthal and Scarlet Fu on Thursday. “Because the wells deplete so quickly, they constantly need to raise money to replace the assets.”

Hedge fund manager calls shale explorers bad deal, shorts Continental

Oil was poised for its biggest quarterly gain in more than a year on forecasts for rising demand and Turkey’s threat to halt Kurdish exports through its territory after the region voted for independence from Iraq. Futures were little changed in New York, up more than 9% in September. OPEC and the IEA this month boosted  demand forecasts, signaling the surplus that has weighed on prices may shrink further. Iraq said Thursday that Turkey agreed to deal exclusively with its government over exports of Kurdish crude, a step that could disrupt shipments from the region that this week voted overwhelmingly for independence from Baghdad.

Crude’s September surge propels bull market run on demand optimism

The oil market is battling with a paradox: what happens when the unstoppable force of OPEC production cuts and soaring global demand meets the immovable object that’s U.S. shale? The answer will determine not only the price of crude, already at its highest in two years near $60/bbl, but also the fortune of major companies and energy-rich countries from Saudi Arabia to Russia and Brazil.

Unstoppable force meeting immovable object stumps oil market




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-04-2017

Oil slid in New York after its biggest monthly gain in more than a year as the boost from seasonal demand and political tensions in Iraq was expected to fade. Futures dropped to their lowest in a week, just days after reaching a five-month high on concerns a Kurdish independence referendum in Iraq might lead to a disruption in oil exports. Prices will be affected by the end of the summer surge in fuel consumption, consultants JBC Energy GmbH said. Meanwhile U.S. drilling has gathered pace, indicating the price rebound is encouraging supply.

Oil slides as boost from demand, Iraq tension seen as temporary

The extraordinary cost reductions achieved by North American oil and gas companies have likely reached their limit, and any boost in profitability for much of the U.S. shale and Canadian oil sands industries will have to come from higher oil prices, according to a new report from Moody’s Investors Service. Moody’s studied 37 oil and gas companies in Canada and the U.S., concluding that although the oil industry has dramatically slashed its cost of production in the past three years and is currently in the midst of posting much better financials this year, there is little room left for more progress.

U.S. Shale Isn’t As Strong As It Appears | OilPrice.com

Libya’s oil production slumped to a five-month low as the North African supplier’s biggest field stopped pumping crude just weeks after re-opening from an earlier unplanned halt. The OPEC member’s output dropped to 750,000 bpd from 985,000 after an armed group forced workers at the Sharara field to stop pumping, a person familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified because they lack authorization to speak to the media. Sharara produced about 235,000 bpd before the halt.

Libya oil output is said to drop to five-month low on field halt

Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted for two quarters in a row for the first time since the global financial crisis, as the kingdom grapples with low oil prices and its businesses struggle to cope with economic reforms. The kingdom’s gross domestic product shrank 1% in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, when it expanded 0.9%, according to official data released on Saturday. The economy had contracted 0.5% in the first three months of 2017.

Oil cuts add to Saudi pain as GDP contracts for second quarter




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-04-2017

Not every oilman is gaining from the U.S. shale boom. Just ask Joe Warren. Warren, a partner at Brown & Borelli Inc., is caught in a historical hiccup, of sorts. More than a third of the 65 to 70 old-line vertical wells his company operates in Oklahoma are negatively affected by horizontal drilling, he says. The new-style wells can run sideways for miles in a shale play, carrying sand, water and chemicals that can leak into older wells, gumming up the works. The cost: For Warren’s company, it’s about $250,000 a year in lost production and $150,000 in added operating expenses, he said. It’s an issue spurring rising anxiety among small drillers. Already, several lawsuits have been filed while a group representing old-guard drillers is gathering data, aiming to force legislation guaranteeing compensation when damages occur.

The shale boom's dark secret, ruined old wells in Oklahoma

President Donald Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is asking miners, oil drillers and manufacturers to collaborate with the government on how to regulate their industries. The EPA began its new "Smart Sectors" program with an inaugural meeting between agency staff and representatives of its regulated industries on Tuesday and a promise to work together to "develop sensible approaches that better protect the environment and public health."

EPA asks drillers, miners for advice on regulating them

Oil bounced around near the $50/bbl mark awaiting reports on U.S. inventories. Futures traded in a 51 cent-range in New York. U.S. crude stockpiles are seen falling in a Bloomberg survey ahead of the release of weekly inventory data, yet Cushing supplies are seen increasing. Meanwhile, the market reckoned with data showing that output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased last month and news that Libyan production is set to recover from a five-month low as the nation’s biggest field restarts.

Oil's bull market rally stalls as traders await inventory data

The oil market gained a lot of momentum in August and September, and Brent flirted with $60 per barrel toward the end of last month. But suddenly, oil prices have pulled back from their recent highs, and could head lower unless some bullish data emerges. The recent rally—unlike other rallies over the past three years—has been underpinned by substantial improvements in the underlying fundamentals.

What Really Killed The Oil Price Rally | OilPrice.com




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-05-2017

The Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico holds 60 to 70 Bbbl of yet-to-be pumped crude oil, according to a study by IHS Markit Ltd. The Permian region’s so-called recoverable resources would be enough to supply every refinery in the U.S. for 12 years and have a market value of about $3.3 trillion at current prices for West Texas Intermediate oil, the domestic benchmark.

Permian `super basin' holds up to $3.3 trillion in untapped oil

Shale drillers and oil sands producers have posted some healthy profits so far this year, but it’ll take oil consistently above $50/bbl for their investments to pay off in the long run. That’s the conclusion of a Moody’s Investors Service study of 37 exploration and production companies in the U.S. and Canada. It used a measure of how efficiently cash is generated to cover the costs of leasing drilling rights and boring wells, and still have enough left over to invest in future projects.

Shale drillers, oil sands producers need crude above $50/bbl for boom to last

President Vladimir Putin said Russia is open to extending a deal with OPEC to curb oil supplies to the end of 2018, though he’ll wait to make a decision until nearer the expiry of the existing pact in March.

Putin says oil pact with OPEC may be extended to end of 2018

BP is taking delivery of six new, state-of-the-art liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers to support its expanding global LNG portfolio, and to respond to growing demand for lower-carbon energy sources around the world. BP’s finance partners KMarin and ICBC Leasing are investing more than $1 billion in the tankers, which will join existing tankers in BP Shipping’s fleet in 2018 and 2019. The vessels will help service a 20-year liquefaction contract with the Freeport LNG facility in Texas, as well as other international LNG projects in BP’s global portfolio.

BP strengthens LNG shipping capacity




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-06-2017

Oil traded near $50/bbl in New York as traders weighed a flood of U.S. crude exports against the possibility of extended production cuts by OPEC and Russia. Futures were little changed after settling at a two-week low on Wednesday. Overseas shipments from the U.S. jumped to a record last week as  production rose, government data showed. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin said he’s open to prolonging a deal with OPEC to curb supplies, though a decision won’t be made until the current agreement nears expiry in March. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz began a four-day visit to the nation on Wednesday.

U.S. crude exports reach record-high

Nigeria’s oil minister sent a letter to  President Muhammadu Buhari listing at least $24 billion of contracts involving the state oil company that he said were never discussed with him or the firm’s board, a copy of the document seen by Bloomberg shows.

Nigerian minister is said to query $24 billion in oil contracts

There’s a land grab quietly taking place in a little-known corner of the Canadian oil sands. Just 125 mi southwest of the Fort McMurray oil-sands hub in northern Alberta, investors are rushing to secure rights to land that produces crude at much lower costs than the massive operations the region’s known for. That’s because beneath the area’s characteristic oil-rich soil, which requires expensive extraction and refining techniques, there’s crude trapped between layers of rock that can be pumped with conventional gear.

Cheap option to the oil sands emerges as hot play in Canada

Libya’s oil output, hampered by sporadic shutdowns at fields and ports, is on track to resume its recovery as the OPEC nation’s biggest crude deposit started pumping after a three-day forced halt. The Sharara field re-opened on Wednesday and is restoring production, the state producer National Oil Corp. said on its website. NOC lifted force majeure at the field as of Wednesday and is able to resume delivering Sharara crude to customers, it said in an emailed statement. NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla said Monday on Libya TV that the nation’s daily output will reach 1 MMbbl of oil within days of the field’s re-opening.

Libyan oil output set to rebound as biggest field restarts




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-09-2017

Hedge funds have become strongly bullish on the outlook for all parts of the petroleum complex, amid signs global crude stocks are declining and fuels will be short supply after hurricane-related refinery outages. But with so many fund managers already betting heavily on a further rise prices, the market has become lopsided and the risk of a sharp reversal has increased significantly (tmsnrt.rs/2jUBXpk). Hedge funds and other money managers raised their combined net long position in futures and options linked to Brent and WTI by 83 million barrels in the week to Sept. 19.

COLUMN-Hedge fund positions in oil look stretched: Kemp

After substantially improving their cost structures through 2015 and 2016, North American exploration and production (E&P) companies will demonstrate meaningful capital efficiency to the extent the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price is above $50 per barrel and the Henry Hub natural gas price is at least $3.00 per MMBtu, Moody's Investors Service says. In in a new report, "Higher than $50 per barrel WTI essential for a meaningful return on capital," Moody's discusses its analysis of 37 independent US E&P companies' expected performance in terms of return on capital under various commodity price scenarios. Moody's measures capital efficiency using the leverage full cycle ratio (LFCR) metric, a function of operating cash margins and finding and development costs.

Moody's: North American E&P capital efficiency improvements require oil prices above $50 per barrel

So far, there are no signs of an actual supply disruption, but oil traded up at the start of the week on the heightened geopolitical risk. But Brent prices have only moved up into the upper-$50s because the underlying fundamentals have improved markedly in the last few months. Oil demand is robust and continues to grow even as global supplies have stagnated. The OPEC deal seems to finally be bearing fruit in the form of a sharp decline in global crude oil inventories. The oil market could finally be breaking out of a depressed pricing environment after three years of sluggishness, according to Trafigura Group, an oil trading company. “We are nearing the end of ‘lower for longer’ oil,” Ben Luckock, co-head of Group Market Risk at Trafigura said at the S&P Global Platts APPEC conference in Singapore on Tuesday. Luckock cites the fact that the oil market could lose some 9 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2019 just from well depletion. That could leave the world short on supply, pushing up prices significantly.

Oil Prices At A Ceiling, Or Just Getting Started? | Market Armor

A recent rise for the price of oil could be set to continue, according to one commodities analyst, who believes there is now a "real rebalancing" in the market. "The fundamentals are changing and the market is rebalancing," Jodie Gunzberg, head of commodity and real asset indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices, told CNBC Wednesday. This support is coming from several sources, including OPEC whose members are complying with production cuts and China where there is demand growth, according to Gunzberg.

Oil shortages could push prices all the way to $80, commodities expert says




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-12-2017

Oil rose above $50/bbl in New York before data forecast to show a third weekly drop in U.S. crude inventories, while Saudi Arabia said it will sell customers considerably less crude than they’re asking for. Futures advanced 1.4% after rebounding 0.6% on Monday from a weekly loss. Crude stockpiles probably slid by 750,000 bbl last week, a Bloomberg survey showed before an Energy Information Administration report due Thursday.

Oil climbs above $50 before U.S. data as Saudis curb exports

Rosneft closed the deal to acquire a 30% stake in the concessions agreement for the development of Zohr field, the largest gas field in the Mediterranean Sea, from Italian company Eni S.p.A. The cost of Rosneft stake acquisition is $1.125 billion. The Company also refunded its share in past project costs to Eni.

Rosneft acquires stake in giant Zohr field for $1.125 billion

As crude oil gushes out of the U.S. like never before, it looks increasingly like North Sea oil will suffer collateral damage. America exported a record high 1.98 MMbpd of crude in the week ended Sept. 29, equal to the crude that normally gets shipped every day in the North Sea. Much of the U.S. outflow is going to Asia, which has become increasingly important in recent years in determining North Sea oil prices, effectively sandwiching Brent crude between bearish forces.

North Sea oil sandwiched as U.S. ships crude like never before

Iraq and Iran boosted crude exports in September, taking advantage of a slower pace of shipments from rival Saudi Arabia to win buyers in key markets like China and the U.S. Iraq shipped 3.98 MMbopd, the highest since December, while Iran’s exports rose to 2.28 MMbopd, the most since February, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia’s exports were 6.68 MMbopd, the second-lowest for this year, the data show.

Iraq, Iran boost oil exports in sales battle with Saudis




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-14-2017

OPEC expects its efforts to clear the surplus in oil inventories to finally succeed by the end of the third quarter of next year, said people familiar with the group’s internal forecasts. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia have been cutting oil production this year to bring fuel inventories in industrialized nations back in line with the five-year average. They hope to end an unprecedented build-up that sent prices plunging from above $100/bbl in 2014 to around $50 currently, but the process has taken longer than expected and the deal has already been extended beyond its initial June expiry.

OPEC said to see oil inventory glut disappear in one year

Oil slid as investors waited to see whether U.S. government data will confirm that crude stockpiles rose last week, while the International Energy Agency warned of a ceiling for prices next year. Futures lost 1.7% in New York after climbing 4.1% the previous three sessions. Inventories rose by 3.1 MMbbl last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report. That contrasts with a Bloomberg survey that showed stockpiles dropped for a third week. The government is due to release the official data later Thursday. Meanwhile the IEA said global supply and demand estimates for 2018 indicate that stockpiles may not fall further, potentially capping prices.

Oil slides before U.S. data as IEA warns of price ceiling

Putting on the brakes is a relative term in Scandinavia’s richest economy. The Norwegian government on Thursday proposed spending 231.1 billion kroner ($29 billion) of its oil income and wealth to plug a deficit equal to 7.7% of gross domestic product, roughly unchanged from this year. To do this, it will withdraw 72 billion kroner from its massive wealth fund, up from a lower-than-estimated 57 billion kroner in 2017.

Norway puts on the brakes, but oil-cash splurge is hard to kick

Shares of Independent Oil & Gas Plc rose as much as 100% on Thursday, the second dramatic increase for a North Sea explorer this week, after the London-based company announced a tenfold increase in its southern North Sea gas reserves. IOG said the portfolio holds an estimated 303 Bcfg, up from 34 Bcfg previously. The rally followed peer Jersey Oil & Gas Plc’s sixfold increase Monday, after joint venture partner Statoil ASA announced a discovery in the UK Continental Shelf region.

Groundhog Day in London as oil stock soars on North Sea reserves




RE: OPEC, for some quiet moments.. - admin - 10-16-2017

OPEC forecast higher demand for its oil in 2018 on Wednesday and said its production-cutting deal with rival producers was getting rid of a glut, pointing to a tighter market that could move into a deficit next year.

OPEC again raises demand forecast for its oil, points to 2018 deficit

OPEC expects its efforts to clear the surplus in oil inventories to finally succeed by the end of the third quarter of next year, said people familiar with the group’s internal forecasts. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia have been cutting oil production this year to bring fuel inventories in industrialized nations back in line with the five-year average. They hope to end an unprecedented build-up that sent prices plunging from above $100 a barrel in 2014 to around $50 currently, but the process has taken longer than expected and the deal has already been extended beyond its initial June expiry.

OPEC Sees Oil Inventory Glut Finally Gone in One Year - Bloomberg

Nearly two-thirds of U.S. oil executives see crude oil prices remaining below $60 per barrel through 2018 and not hitting $70 until at least the next decade, according to a survey published on Wednesday by consultancy Deloitte Services LP [DLTE.UL].

Most U.S. oil executives see prices below $60/barrel through 2018

OPEC might be closer to working off a supply glut than it thinks, says Gary Ross, head of global oil analytics at S&P Global Platts. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is likely to top its 2017 high of $59.02 a barrel before the year’s end, Mr. Ross predicted speaking to reporters at a conference in New York. “We think with the surplus stocks are mostly gone–we’re not going to see $30 oil anymore,” he said. “We’re basically in a $50 to $60 Brent world for the time being,” he said. While he said Brent prices may rise to $60 this year, hedging by shale producers and slowing withdrawals from inventories in the first months of next year will likely limit gains.

Say Goodbye to $30 Oil as Supply Glut Is Mostly Gone, Says Platts - MoneyBeat - WSJ